Russian invasion of Ukraine

[marco]

Football Leagues were suspended for WW2. If this one kicks off good and proper then it will be finished forever.

if it kicks off good and proper football will be the last thing on your mind,sadly

 

[ultimateharold]

if it kicks off good and proper football will be the last thing on your mind,sadly

Where was this in '96?

 

[Elbow beards]

Yeah, it's hard to see how it could be anything but a nuclear response. Maybe a tactical strike on the Sevastopol naval base? There have been threats made against the Black Sea fleet if they go nuclear.

I think everyone's hoping he's not that stupid though.

They wouldn't need a nuke response, U.S along could completely take out their entire fleet and any ground weapons with just their own conventional weapons.

 

[cleavers]

Yeah, it's hard to see how it could be anything but a nuclear response. Maybe a tactical strike on the Sevastopol naval base? There have been threats made against the Black Sea fleet if they go nuclear.

I think everyone's hoping he's not that stupid though.

They wouldn't need a nuke response, U.S along could completely take out their entire fleet and any ground weapons with just their own conventional weapons.

It's interesting that the "Global Hawk" drone the US fly around the Black Sea, now seems to be concentrating on just the area close to Sevastopol.

It used to fly the whole Black Sea towards Sochi, and also up to the Ukraine/ Romania border.

 

[Irwell]

They wouldn't need a nuke response, U.S along could completely take out their entire fleet and any ground weapons with just their own conventional weapons.

Agreed, they absolutely could take out the fleet with conventional weapons. I think the issue is that you lose impact of MAD if you don't respond in kind. if there's no nuclear response then he comes across as the kind of person who would take that as a sign of weakness and assume he now has free reign to use them. A conventional strike against his fleet might give him the notion that he needs to escalate to a larger nuclear strike to reassert his position, whereas if he thinks he'll get an escalation of nuclear strikes in return then it maybe gives him food for thought. Can we afford for him to think that we'll only respond with conventional strikes if he uses nuclear ones?

Madness I know, but he comes across as a mad person and it's a very difficult decision if someone ever has to make it.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Nordsream 2 attack a warning of what Russua could do to other undersea pipelines. Baltic pipeline from Sweden to Germany, North Sea pipeline from Norway to UK...
How to guarantee NATO getting properly involved in Ukraine in one fell swoop.

 

[Elbow beards]

Agreed, they absolutely could take out the fleet with conventional weapons. I think the issue is that you lose impact of MAD if you don't respond in kind. if there's no nuclear response then he comes across as the kind of person who would take that as a sign of weakness and assume he now has free reign to use them. A conventional strike against his fleet might give him the notion that he needs to escalate to a larger nuclear strike to reassert his position, whereas if he thinks he'll get an escalation of nuclear strikes in return then it maybe gives him food for thought. Can we afford for him to think that we'll only respond with conventional strikes if he uses nuclear ones?

Madness I know, but he comes across as a mad person and it's a very difficult decision if someone ever has to make it.

Let's just hope the people that call the shots know what they're doing and the mad bastard knows it's a no win if he goes down that route.

 

[RobMCFC]

Let's just hope the people that call the shots know what they're doing and the mad bastard knows it's a no win if he goes down that route.

Whatever lunacy Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev are spouting for public consumption, they will have been warned of the consequences by diplomatic back-channels. In fact this was in the news this morning.
They will know that at the very least, their military will be no more if they use nukes.

 

[Irwell]

Nordsream 2 attack a warning of what Russua could do to other undersea pipelines. Baltic pipeline from Sweden to Germany, North Sea pipeline from Norway to UK...

Seems like a pretty obvious warning message on the day another pipeline through the region opens doesn't it.

 

[cleavers]

Seems like a pretty obvious warning message on the day another pipeline through the region opens doesn't it.

It could just as easily be an attack on russian infrastructure by someone else. The stream 2 pipe was effectively defunct anyway, as it had been cancelled (though had been gas filled), the stream 1 pipe was still in operation though shutdown for the moment, maybe someone wanted it shut permanantly to prevent russian gas coming back into Europe, I don't expect we'll ever know.

As for western pipelines being attacked by russia, I suspect/would hope they will be well under guard by now by NATO members.