Russian invasion of Ukraine

One of the KOS referenced twitter theads on Putin's martial law announcement has huge implications internally for Russia - prep for major Internal political discontent by the looks of it. Anyway read for yourself:
 
Here, Russian forces have made small, steady gains, largely thanks to the Wagner group, which is considered by analysts to be a Kremlin-approved private military company.

Reports on social media and in Russian state media say Wagner mercenaries are on the outskirts of Bakhmut, in a small village called Ivangrad.

On social network Telegram, Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin has acknowledged that resistance from the city is stiff.

“The situation near Bakhmut is stably difficult, the Ukrainian troops are putting up decent resistance and the legend of the fleeing Ukrainians is just a legend. Ukrainians are guys with the same iron balls as we are,” he wrote.

Small gains alright......1km in 3 months,apparently.

Slava Ukraini.
 
He'd ignore it. Dictators don't listen listen to others and they seem incapable of rational thought. It goes with the territory. Hitler, Stalin, Idiotic Amin, they were all delusional but no-one within their inner circle would stand up to them, for obvious reasons.

He wouldn’t ignore it entirely, he would use it to say “see I told you, it was NATO I was fighting all along”
 
In that instance he'd officially be losing against the UN, not NATO. It is a criminal offence according to UN charter, to use nuclear weapons, in any capacity, for defence, offence or even testing.

He'd basically be committing the ultimate crime against humanity and the entire peoples of Earth. His defence that "Well the Americans did it in 1945!" wouldn't stand up, because there were no such laws and restrictions against their use. Now there are, and Putin knows there are; Russia agreed to such laws themselves.

In threatening to use them, he is basically admitting to breaking international and UN charters. He'd be fucked seven ways from Sunday by the entire world, and he'd have no defense for it.

He clearly doesn’t care about UN laws. He broke UN law invading anyways, then countless war crimes committed by his forces.

It boils down to how many allies he will lose and for how long. And even then it’s only really China that matters and How long would they turn their back on cheap Gas / oil. Is predict they would be back to Russia pretty sharpish after dust settles.

The theory he gets topped before that point is valid but it’s unclear just how strong his hold is as we have been hearing the same for a while.

All in all odds of it happening are tiny but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely.

 
He clearly doesn’t care about UN laws. He broke UN law invading anyways, then countless war crimes committed by his forces.

It boils down to how many allies he will lose and for how long. And even then it’s only really China that matters and How long would they turn their back on cheap Gas / oil. Is predict they would be back to Russia pretty sharpish after dust settles.

The theory he gets topped before that point is valid but it’s unclear just how strong his hold is as we have been hearing the same for a while.

To put it bluntly, use of a nuclear warhead, be it testing, in international, or own waters, against trees or people will change the face of the conflict in way which to be quite honest neither politicians, media or the rest of the world could comprehend or in fact know.

The only countries flying along with such narrative would be Iran and NK. That's it.

From the moment he drops that war-head, not only will the entire economic system collapse regarding Russia, the whole world's military complex will have a singular focus. Until now, they've been ( UKR ) doing fantastic with the stuff we've been sending. But it's the easy stuff, the beginner and amateur stuff. Let's use this exercise of imagination.

Not only the Whole NATO block, add non NATO allies, Japan, for example, the EU, etc. Now picture all military complex and industry all fixated on a single focal point. This includes, Air Force, Navy, ground Forces, Intelligence Agencies, Satellite, Submarines, anything you want, and the examples can continue. This won't be a contest, or a war. This will be a gruesome, quick, awful execution of all that moves and shoots, and is made of metal and flesh on a massive radius, all at once. There is no insane individual that will choose to go down that route without the immediate death-warrant guaranteed.

The little nonce will be fucked if he does, fuck if he doesn't. As the rest of his decrepit, awful nation.
 
I agree the odds are very low. For me the risk peaks when when he knows for sure he has lost. When the ramifications of the nuke become “beneficial” to him. Use a nuke. NATO get involved and then he can say they didn’t lose to Ukraine, they lost against NATO and he runs back into Russia to rule them like the dictator he is.

It’s unlikely for sure.

Whilst a very valid scenario I look past the anger of one midget and see the odds actually reducing the harder it gets for Russia especially when Putins future is so heavily tied to Ukraine. Someone in that chain of command will look at it and refuse using a nuke of any sorts when the commander in chief looks dead in the water.

Putins time is over, we are witnessing his downfall albeit slowly. Russia will one day not want to be, and succeed in not being, a pariah state in the eyes of western leaders even if not in the eyes of those who witnessed (first hand or via media) their atrocities.
 
Ukraine MUST be accepted into NATO. They'd increase it's fighting prowess by 50% overnight.
Too much of a risk right now, eventually yes and once Russia have stopped behaving like animals, the long term should be to accept them into NATO too.
 
Too much of a risk right now, eventually yes and once Russia have stopped behaving like animals, the long term should be to accept them into NATO too.
What risk? Putin won't use his nukes and knows what will happen if he does; he'd officially be fighting NATO and that is a fight he knows he cannot win, hence the rhetoric f bluff and bluster.
 

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