Russian invasion of Ukraine

roubaixtuesday said:
Impossible to say I think. I remember the fall of the Iron Curtain, and that was far faster than anyone thought possible. Likewise apartheid.

I think perhaps the main lesson of the last year is just how weak and corrupt Russia is.
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Yes, but they still have massive numbers of people.
 
grunge said:
Personally, from what I have heard I doubt the GOP leadership will allow it to impact too much. The MAGA fringe will get some wins no doubt, but too much of an impact on Ukraine will hit voters in the next election so GOP leadership will be all over it.

I could well be wrong but that’s my reading from what I understand from it.

It’s entirely possible the GOP splits in 2 soon which would mean as a party they will be out of action for decades in terms of government.
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Party within party is more likely than split.
 
KS55 said:
Yes, but they still have massive numbers of people.
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Sure, and I'm not saying Ukraine are guaranteed an easy victory, or anything remotely like that.

But Russia has proved far weaker than anyone imagined. They've so few willing people they've had to empty their prisons. How likely is it they'll be able to recruit the soldiers they need to continue the war given they're already struggling? Even if they do, can they train, lead and equip them? Will the poverty striken republics where recruits currently come from stoically continue to permit the slaughter?

Europe has escaped the gas stranglehold they imagined they had. Western public opinion remains strong.

Russian industry has been hollowed out by corruption and seems entirely unable to replace the losses imposed by Ukraine.

The Russian economy has tanked under sanctions, and the people who have done well under Putin beyond the ultra corrupt oligarch class may well not be so impressed with the way the wind is blowing.

I don't know how this will play out, and I'm not claiming to. But I'm very sceptical of narratives that the size of the country or determination of the Russian leadership means they'll win in the end. I'd see it the other way if anything; the size of the coalition behind Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people are both beyond what Russia can bring to bear.

And I don't think a rapid unravelling of the Russian position is beyond the realms of possibility.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Sure, and I'm not saying Ukraine are guaranteed an easy victory, or anything remotely like that.

But Russia has proved far weaker than anyone imagined. They've so few willing people they've had to empty their prisons. How likely is it they'll be able to recruit the soldiers they need to continue the war given they're already struggling? Even if they do, can they train, lead and equip them? Will the poverty striken republics where recruits currently come from stoically continue to permit the slaughter?

Europe has escaped the gas stranglehold they imagined they had. Western public opinion remains strong.

Russian industry has been hollowed out by corruption and seems entirely unable to replace the losses imposed by Ukraine.

The Russian economy has tanked under sanctions, and the people who have done well under Putin beyond the ultra corrupt oligarch class may well not be so impressed with the way the wind is blowing.

I don't know how this will play out, and I'm not claiming to. But I'm very sceptical of narratives that the size of the country or determination of the Russian leadership means they'll win in the end. I'd see it the other way if anything; the size of the coalition behind Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people are both beyond what Russia can bring to bear.

And I don't think a rapid unravelling of the Russian position is beyond the realms of possibility.
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I think you’ve covered all the main points!
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Sure, and I'm not saying Ukraine are guaranteed an easy victory, or anything remotely like that.

But Russia has proved far weaker than anyone imagined. They've so few willing people they've had to empty their prisons. How likely is it they'll be able to recruit the soldiers they need to continue the war given they're already struggling? Even if they do, can they train, lead and equip them? Will the poverty striken republics where recruits currently come from stoically continue to permit the slaughter?

Europe has escaped the gas stranglehold they imagined they had. Western public opinion remains strong.

Russian industry has been hollowed out by corruption and seems entirely unable to replace the losses imposed by Ukraine.

The Russian economy has tanked under sanctions, and the people who have done well under Putin beyond the ultra corrupt oligarch class may well not be so impressed with the way the wind is blowing.

I don't know how this will play out, and I'm not claiming to. But I'm very sceptical of narratives that the size of the country or determination of the Russian leadership means they'll win in the end. I'd see it the other way if anything; the size of the coalition behind Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people are both beyond what Russia can bring to bear.

And I don't think a rapid unravelling of the Russian position is beyond the realms of possibility.
Click to expand...
Good post mate.
 
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