Russian invasion of Ukraine

It is the Peter Hitchens & the Daily Mail.

You don’t have to read it.


Russian bots and paid shills pumping out their propaganda. Yes we supposedly have free press here, however Russian media was shut down here in the early days of the war. Perhaps we should also be doing it to the Daily Mail and their weird conspiracy theories.
 
Sure, and I'm not saying Ukraine are guaranteed an easy victory, or anything remotely like that.

But Russia has proved far weaker than anyone imagined. They've so few willing people they've had to empty their prisons. How likely is it they'll be able to recruit the soldiers they need to continue the war given they're already struggling? Even if they do, can they train, lead and equip them? Will the poverty striken republics where recruits currently come from stoically continue to permit the slaughter?

Europe has escaped the gas stranglehold they imagined they had. Western public opinion remains strong.

Russian industry has been hollowed out by corruption and seems entirely unable to replace the losses imposed by Ukraine.

The Russian economy has tanked under sanctions, and the people who have done well under Putin beyond the ultra corrupt oligarch class may well not be so impressed with the way the wind is blowing.

I don't know how this will play out, and I'm not claiming to. But I'm very sceptical of narratives that the size of the country or determination of the Russian leadership means they'll win in the end. I'd see it the other way if anything; the size of the coalition behind Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people are both beyond what Russia can bring to bear.

And I don't think a rapid unravelling of the Russian position is beyond the realms of possibility.
Add to that Putin is shit scared of the USA and it’s far superior weapons and technology. All said and done China is a key player here , if they pull the plug on Putin it’s over for sure .
 
It is the Peter Hitchens & the Daily Mail.

You don’t have to read it.


I haven't read it (to many cookies to disable) But i can imagine the fear mongering it gives.

No matter the nuclear threats being bandied about by the Russian muppets, they all know Russia itself isn't under threat. At least not directly by conflict.
They know the war can stop tomorrow if they withdraw.
So people who write the (i assume) utter garbage in articles like that, are just click bait merchants.

The truth is, even the most hardened Russians know starting a Nuclear war is absolutely pointless. It would be complete suicide. So unless Nato decides to enter Russia, then at no point will Nukes be on the agenda.

The bigger threat to Russia right now is financial. Wars are not always won on the battlefield. A war needs funding.
Putin thought he had that covered. Apart from building a war chest, he thought our reliance on oil and gas was enough to prevent us taking any real action in the Ukraine.
He was actually right on one front. If the "Special Military Operation" had been swift and victorious, would we have done anything about it?
No, we would have banded about a few sanctions. A few very harshly written letters to Moscow.
But the world would have moved on and the gas and oil would have kept flowing.

As things stand right now. Russia is failing economically. Russian people may support a war when it largely doesn't affect them. But it's coming home and getting closer. Pluck some conscripts from rural areas and nobody cares. Start picking young men from the higher/wealthier classes and it will be noticed.
Then tell them their money is worthless, and all types of questions will start to be asked. There will be a unstoppable groundswell of revolt.

Our best strategy is to just keep supporting the Ukraine. The Ukraine doesn't even need to gain any ground.
If we stand firm with them, Russia will self implode. It is just a matter of time.
 
Sure, and I'm not saying Ukraine are guaranteed an easy victory, or anything remotely like that.

But Russia has proved far weaker than anyone imagined. They've so few willing people they've had to empty their prisons. How likely is it they'll be able to recruit the soldiers they need to continue the war given they're already struggling? Even if they do, can they train, lead and equip them? Will the poverty striken republics where recruits currently come from stoically continue to permit the slaughter?

Europe has escaped the gas stranglehold they imagined they had. Western public opinion remains strong.

Russian industry has been hollowed out by corruption and seems entirely unable to replace the losses imposed by Ukraine.

The Russian economy has tanked under sanctions, and the people who have done well under Putin beyond the ultra corrupt oligarch class may well not be so impressed with the way the wind is blowing.

I don't know how this will play out, and I'm not claiming to. But I'm very sceptical of narratives that the size of the country or determination of the Russian leadership means they'll win in the end. I'd see it the other way if anything; the size of the coalition behind Ukraine and the will of the Ukrainian people are both beyond what Russia can bring to bear.

And I don't think a rapid unravelling of the Russian position is beyond the realms of possibility.
Great Post.
I would also like to add something that's seems to never get discussed.

We see it mentioned all the time that Russia has unlimited manpower but Ukrianes manpower never seems to be debated.

I see it like this, Russia has struggled to equip and command around 500k soldiers since the war began and therefore adding another 500k would seem to me a very difficult task for them.

Really don't see how they can ever have more than a million men available never mind being actually useful and motivated.

However Ukriane has a population of 40m and as a guess they would have about 5m men of fighting age.

Add to this they will be very motivated, equipped by the west, trained by the west and led by what seems very intelligent and motivated commanders.

They also lose men at a much much slower rate than the Russians.

In summary I have no idea why people keep saying Russia has a manpower advantage.
 

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