Russian invasion of Ukraine

[bluemanchester]

 

[lee_wsm]

It only ends when China tells Russia it’s ending. Another alternative would be China invades Russia to protect the oriental Russians and claims the east of Russia as Chinese. A third alternative is a Russian Revolution. That’s it as there’s not a cat in hell’s chance that Russia can win the war. Not now anyway.

Wagner vs china option 4

 

[Gabriel]

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I thought we'd settled this ages ago, they don't and no he can't.

Russia aren't drawing up plans to conscript another 500,000 men because they've got loads of troops sitting around waiting to be called upon.

They aren't holding anything back. This is the extent of Russia's military power.

The US estimated that the invasion force was 80% of Russia's ground force, and 100% of that had been deployed by late March. There's no one hiding in the wings, no secret supply of armor they were holding back for the first 350 days of the 3 day war.

There's lots of numbers thrown around. But most estimates of Russian military numbers were around 850k troops at day 1 total, circa 175k were deployed for the 3 day run to kiev. They have lost probably that number, no more than 200k. And tried to call up another 300k.

So aside from the numbers needed to mam the borders. There must be a lot of troops somewhere. I think it's reasonable to think they could go all out and double the numbers. Maybe they can't kit them out? But just in terms of boots on the ground - Russia has a population of 143m. They could do more.

 

[marco]

There's lots of numbers thrown around. But most estimates of Russian military numbers were around 850k troops at day 1 total, circa 175k were deployed for the 3 day run to kiev. They have lost probably that number, no more than 200k. And tried to call up another 300k.

So aside from the numbers needed to mam the borders. There must be a lot of troops somewhere. I think it's reasonable to think they could go all out and double the numbers. Maybe they can't kit them out? But just in terms of boots on the ground - Russia has a population of 143m. They could do more.

30m of consription age i read somewhere and your correct they could do more,its important that Ukraine gets its hardware as fast as possible now,needs to be weeks not months

 

[lee_wsm]

The sun is reporting putin trying to get the weapons America left in Afghan from the taliban

 

[Dage]

There's lots of numbers thrown around. But most estimates of Russian military numbers were around 850k troops at day 1 total, circa 175k were deployed for the 3 day run to kiev. They have lost probably that number, no more than 200k. And tried to call up another 300k.

So aside from the numbers needed to mam the borders. There must be a lot of troops somewhere. I think it's reasonable to think they could go all out and double the numbers. Maybe they can't kit them out? But just in terms of boots on the ground - Russia has a population of 143m. They could do more.

In modern armies somewhat around 1/10 or 1/15 are actually fighting troops. The majority is administration, logistics, maintenance etc. If Russia lost around 150k troops fighting, they are really short. Several intelligence services and militaries said that the spring offensive is Russia's last real chance to overwhelm Ukraine.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

In modern armies somewhat around 1/10 or 1/15 are actually fighting troops. The majority is administration, logistics, maintenance etc. If Russia lost around 150k troops fighting, they are really short. Several intelligence services and militaries said that the spring offensive is Russia's last real chance to overwhelm Ukraine.

Yes, agree with that but 1/10 seems a bit light. I guess my point is that if they wanted to go all out they should be able to double the numbers. From reserves alone they have over 1m. Putin could in theory call them up, fit them out with new gear and send them in.

He doesn't because I think he can't. The Russian people are fine with Wagner getting killed. But he is walking a line where he has to make progress but he can't afford any political capital or hard currency. Something will have to give.

 

[cleavers]

In modern armies somewhat around 1/10 or 1/15 are actually fighting troops.

They're far from a "modern" army though, as we have see, they just throw bodies at it, without caring a jot.

 

[cleavers]

Putin could in theory call them up, fit them out with new gear and send them in.

More likely fit them out with old gear and rusty rifles.