Russian invasion of Ukraine

inbetween said:
To be honest we could probably roll into what is currently Ukraine as a peacekeeping force, establish no-fly zones and police the airspace and Russia would back down and probably leave it at that. It would be a huge failure for Putin but it would leave him with no other choice unless he wants to risk direct conflict with the west.

You have to remember though that the war in Ukraine did not start in 2022, it started in 2014 and so the question is if NATO moved into Ukraine then does that peacekeeping force extend to retaking the 'Russian' Crimea and the Donbass regions?

The best result I can see is an eventual NATO peacekeeping force and ceasefire leading to Russian withdrawal and a return to the territories as they were in 2014. There could be peace if a settlement can be reached around that, I don't know if Ukraine will accept that and I doubt it but that's not for us to decide. The best we can do at the moment is to arm Ukraine so it can defend itself and also try to bring peace by getting both parties around the table, the other alternatives are grim.

The worst alternative is retaking the entirety of Ukraine as it was before 2014 because that would mean outright war with Russia. We can laugh about smashing them etc but outright war with Russia would definitely lead to a WW3 type scenario fighting a nuclear armed country and we certainly don't want that.
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I agree with all of that.

I know Zelensky likes to give it the big'un (and rightly so) but a part of any peace negotiation is ultimately going to involve Ukraine officially giving up Crimea IMO.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
I agree with all of that.

I know Zelensky likes to give it the big'un (and rightly so) but a part of any peace negotiation is ultimately going to involve Ukraine officially giving up Crimea IMO.
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Very early on in the invasion,negotiations were arranged in Istanbul.
I'm pretty sure Zelensky was going to attend,then Bucha happened.
Zelensky then said "there won't ever be negotiations".
He will take every inch of land back.

Slava Ukraini.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
Very early on in the invasion,negotiations were arranged in Istanbul.
I'm pretty sure Zelensky was going to attend,then Bucha happened.
Zelensky then said "there won't ever be negotiations".
He will take every inch of land back.

Slava Ukraini.
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I'd love it if they did, and as you know I'm very bullish on supporting Ukraine, but being realistic, Crimea is going to be part of any negotiation.

And a negotiation of some kind is inevitable.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
I'd love it if they did, and as you know I'm very bullish on supporting Ukraine, but being realistic, Crimea is going to be part of any negotiation.

And a negotiation of some kind is inevitable.
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Any negotiation should be on Zelensky's terms as it was his country unlafully invaded. With the world backing he has, I think he is in a much stronger position that some may think, and Crimea will be Ukrainian again.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
I'd love it if they did, and as you know I'm very bullish on supporting Ukraine, but being realistic, Crimea is going to be part of any negotiation.

And a negotiation of some kind is inevitable.
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Yeah,and it will probably be "you need to fuckoff from Crimea as well,and we will leave you be"
Very,very stubborn Ukrainians mate,very stubborn.
If Zelensky said that's what he will do,that's what he will do.
I agree with you,but,I personally don't think he will negotiate.
He knows,as do you and I,at some point,Putin will only come back.

Slava Ukraini.
 
mosssideblue said:
Any negotiation should be on Zelensky's terms as it was his country unlafully invaded. With the world backing he has, I think he is in a much stronger position that some may think, and Crimea will be Ukrainian again.
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I hope you're right, but I just think ultimately pragmatism will prevail and this will end with the Russians fucking off out of Ukraine, but their annexation of Crimea being recognised.

Seems the most obvious and likely end game to me.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
I hope you're right, but I just think ultimately pragmatism will prevail and this will end with the Russians fucking off out of Ukraine, but their annexation of Crimea being recognised.

Seems the most obvious and likely end game to me.
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It won't be mate,trust me.
No way,IMO,would Putin settle with just that now,after being embarrassed for over a year,in what they thought would take 3 days.
Ukraine now have the equipment to take everything back,again,IMO.
That is what they will do.
Unfortunately,nobody is backing down in this now,it's all or nothing.

Slava Ukraini.
 
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