Russian invasion of Ukraine

aguero93:20 said:
In WW2's case with people sitting around a table doing shots of cyanide.
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And this war isn’t going to end with the total collapse of the Russian government and Putin shooting himself while hiding in a cupboard, as much as we’d all like it to.

The only realistic way out of this mess is either negotiation, or for NATO to decide enough is enough and steamroll in all guns blazing.

The latter just isn’t going to happen due to the (tiny IMO) risk Putin will launch nukes.

All I am saying is I believe by far the most likely outcome here is one where both sides can save a bit of face and claim elements of victory. And the general shape of that negotiation is obvious.

The looming spectre on the horizon of the US election has a role to play also. The Russians will be fighting a huge disinformation campaign to try and get Trump back in, you can count on that.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
And this war isn’t going to end with the total collapse of the Russian government and Putin shooting himself while hiding in a cupboard, as much as we’d all like it to.

The only realistic way out of this mess is either negotiation, or for NATO to decide enough is enough and steamroll in all guns blazing.

The latter just isn’t going to happen due to the (tiny IMO) risk Putin will launch nukes.

All I am saying is I believe by far the most likely outcome here is one where both sides can save a bit of face and claim elements of victory. And the general shape of that negotiation is obvious.

The looming spectre on the horizon of the US election has a role to play also. The Russians will be fighting a huge disinformation campaign to try and get Trump back in, you can count on that.
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Trump is a busted flush. Tangled up in legal problems, diving in the polls.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
And this war isn’t going to end with the total collapse of the Russian government and Putin shooting himself while hiding in a cupboard, as much as we’d all like it to.

The only realistic way out of this mess is either negotiation, or for NATO to decide enough is enough and steamroll in all guns blazing.

The latter just isn’t going to happen due to the (tiny IMO) risk Putin will launch nukes.

All I am saying is I believe by far the most likely outcome here is one where both sides can save a bit of face and claim elements of victory. And the general shape of that negotiation is obvious.

The looming spectre on the horizon of the US election has a role to play also. The Russians will be fighting a huge disinformation campaign to try and get Trump back in, you can count on that.
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I think you are missing the point. Zelensky will, quite understandably, refuse to accept any negotiation proposed from Putin as he knows Putin will not stick to it.

And before you come back with Putin won't be around in 10 years time, why would Zelensky willingly give up land now to Russia unknowing the future regimes intent (good or bad)?
 
metalblue said:
He can be as stubborn as he likes mate but the sad truth is it’s not his call. If the US get itchy feet Ukraine won’t be able to fight on.

The compromise deal is:
- Power sharing in the Donbas with a referendum in 10 years to decide if they want to be part of Russia or Ukraine.
- 100 year lease of Crimea by Russia.

If offered something along those lines they are taking that all day long. That’s defeat for Russia but gives them something they can spin as victory.

The cherry on top would be:
- Ukraine join NATO (well we need them on side now as they have all our weapons!).
- A peace agreement between Russia/NATO that we will never attack Russia unless self defence and vice versa.
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You can't trust any document the Russians sign. Under Putin they have NEVER - repeat NEVER - followed any post cold war agreement they have ever signed. Even those from before the cold war ended are being rowed back on.
Do tell me how this little nugget of truth will be resolved?
 
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grunge said:
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This is what NATO is anyways. NATO will never attack Russia unless it’s self defence. NATO attacking Russia has never been on the cards, the fact that NATO didn’t flatten Russia when the missiles hit a Poland shows this. It was the perfect pretence and the perfect time to do it if it was wanted.
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Correct. Which is why it’s easy for NATO to agree to it, it also gives Russia a way of saying “that threat has diminished therefore we no longer have any issues with Ukraine or NATO”.

If war is dirty then politics is dirtier still.
 
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