Russian invasion of Ukraine

Why would Ukraine enter into any agreement with a country that never keeps to them.

Would you?
This. And why would they give up on land that Russia is clearly struggling to hold on to.

Any talks would be miles apart as Russia would want land it can hardly control. Ukr know that Crimea is at risk for Russia. So why stop any time soon.
 
You can't trust any document the Russians sign. Under Putin they have NEVER - repeat NEVER followed any pist cold war agreement they have ever signed. Even those from before the cold war ended are being rowed back on.
Do tell me how this little nugget of truth will be resolved?

You can’t. It’s an uncomfortable reality but one that we have to likely confront if the lines haven’t dramatically changed by the winter which is possible given Russian ineptitude. Assuming both sides spend the next 5-6 months largely going nowhere then realistically the only way Russia will unilaterally change its position is through an invading army marching in to Moscow, revolution, or the hope that another Gorbachev type figure arrives. No one is invading Russia and no signs of either of the other two so we are left with two probable outcomes.

The first is the war in Ukraine continues until Putin dies (and even then we don’t know if his replacement will want the same), this requires the west to keep supporting Ukraine both directly and also with the indirect consequences (energy and food prices) because we know the Russians are now dug in and can (and will) indefinitely send men to their death and not give a flying fuck.

The second is some sort of peace agreement is reached, for this to happen Russia needs to make overtures for peace (which isn’t happening now as far as we know), and here should it happen there will be uncomfortable compromises. Sadly Ukraine isn’t in any position to dictate what those compromises will be (if it were there would rightly be no compromise), the west will decide. Of course the west isn’t stupid and I suspect it will be mindful of how little Russia can be trusted so overseeing elections, putting peacekeepers on the ground or signing treaties or having ukraine join NATO are all mechanisms to get as much assurance for Ukraine as possible whilst at same time being conscious of what Russia will agree to - the further we can kick the tricky items down the line to a time Putin no longer walks this planet the more likely agreement can be reached with him.

And yes it’s all shit because on the surface the aggressor is “rewarded” for their behaviour which makes a mockery of so called world order.
 
I think you are missing the point. Zelensky will, quite understandably, refuse to accept any negotiation proposed from Putin as he knows Putin will not stick to it.

And before you come back with Putin won't be around in 10 years time, why would Zelensky willingly give up land now to Russia unknowing the future regimes intent (good or bad)?

I think you’re under the impression that the west will support Ukraine indefinitely. That is in no way guaranteed particularly if the west sees an off ramp that Zelensky is stubbornly refusing to take.
 
I was stationed there for four years in the 80’s and found the Germans very friendly and hospitable
My parents were both out there after the war and took part in the Berlin airlift. Apart from the odd one or two, they always said the Germans were nothing but welcoming.
 
You can’t. It’s an uncomfortable reality but one that we have to likely confront if the lines haven’t dramatically changed by the winter which is possible given Russian ineptitude. Assuming both sides spend the next 5-6 months largely going nowhere then realistically the only way Russia will unilaterally change its position is through an invading army marching in to Moscow, revolution, or the hope that another Gorbachev type figure arrives. No one is invading Russia and no signs of either of the other two so we are left with two probable outcomes.

The first is the war in Ukraine continues until Putin dies (and even then we don’t know if his replacement will want the same), this requires the west to keep supporting Ukraine both directly and also with the indirect consequences (energy and food prices) because we know the Russians are now dug in and can (and will) indefinitely send men to their death and not give a flying fuck.

The second is some sort of peace agreement is reached, for this to happen Russia needs to make overtures for peace (which isn’t happening now as far as we know), and here should it happen there will be uncomfortable compromises. Sadly Ukraine isn’t in any position to dictate what those compromises will be (if it were there would rightly be no compromise), the west will decide. Of course the west isn’t stupid and I suspect it will be mindful of how little Russia can be trusted so overseeing elections, putting peacekeepers on the ground or signing treaties or having ukraine join NATO are all mechanisms to get as much assurance for Ukraine as possible whilst at same time being conscious of what Russia will agree to - the further we can kick the tricky items down the line to a time Putin no longer walks this planet the more likely agreement can be reached with him.

And yes it’s all shit because on the surface the aggressor is “rewarded” for their behaviour which makes a mockery of so called world order.
That's a good assessment. Only thing I'd add is we don't know the economic situation in Russia and how long Putin can sustain sanctions. There are no signs of collapse but economists tend to agree they must be burning through their currency reserves. At some point something will give. Even with success on the battlefield Russia is not going to get out of sanctions anytime soon. Its very much a war of attrition. The Russian economy on one side and the willingness of the west to support Ukraine, with military and sanctions support, on the other.

The role of China and others is hugely significant.
 
That's a good assessment. Only thing I'd add is we don't know the economic situation in Russia and how long Putin can sustain sanctions. There are no signs of collapse but economists tend to agree they must be burning through their currency reserves. At some point something will give. Even with success on the battlefield Russia is not going to get out of sanctions anytime soon. Its very much a war of attrition. The Russian economy on one side and the willingness of the west to support Ukraine, with military and sanctions support, on the other.

The role of China and others is hugely significant.

A third of Russia’s entire budget is going on this war which is madness and not sustainable. What happens to the infrastructure of the country and also paying its public sector workers when the pot of money gets smaller and smaller. There has been suggestions that some employees in the public sector having been getting paid lately, if that goes to a larger scale maybe that is when the uprising starts.

China will be important in ending this, they will be extending Russia’s credit in financial aid, however long term will they ever get it back? Will be interesting to see if xi will have a meeting with Zelenskyy and what could come of that.
 

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