Where was this? In Ukraine? Or russia?
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Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter feedmpenzaandhewillscore
- Start date
Where was this? In Ukraine? Or russia?
This is not an option for Ukraine! The need to have their land back to pre 2014 status.First thing would be what does Russia need to do to 'win?'
If they signed a peace deal today and the current occupied lands remain to be controlled by Russia as part of the peace deal, would they have won?
mosssideblue
Well-Known Member
Why won't they retake Crimea this summer?Zelenskiy correctly said that there was no possibility of negotiation and so retaking Crimea in full by default becomes the sole deliverable of the offensive. Equally we can assume that Zelenskiy is not so naive as to have believed that the support will remain for Ukraine to have 3/4 cracks at it.
On that front, the progress has been glacial and is only going to get even slower the deeper into the Russian defences Ukraine gets.
It’s been clear for a long time that Russia’s only tactic is to try and outlast the western support.
This summer Ukraine won’t retake Crimea, so Russia will get another 6/7 months to build more and deeper defences, more extensive minefields and the task next year becomes slower and more painstaking still, with the added issue of the US elections.
We all want Ukraine to have a full victory, pushing Russia back into their country, joining NATO and Russian GDP back in the 1800’s, but as of now barring an imminent spectacular collapse on the Russian side this years offensive could accurately be described as a stalemate.
dickie davies
Well-Known Member
Unless there is a spectacular collapse of ruSSian defences or there’s a new ruSSian government that orders a total withdrawal, ukraine will not take Crimea this yearWhy won't they retake Crimea this summer?
The occupiers have had months to construct minefields and defensive structures/lines and they will have set their artillery to the exact measurement, so as good as the equipment Ukraine has and no matter how brave the Ukranian military is, they will not make enough progress this summer and autumn
There are the logistics of supply and maintenance to consider as well if the Ukrainians do take a lot of territory back
With regards to the ruSSian artillery being set, this is why it is of the utmost importance that the Ukrainians destroy as much of it as possible before a really big push
Why won't they retake Crimea this summer?
They’ve advanced lines around 100km in the deepest skirmishes since the start of the offensive and still have thousands of km2 to clear out and will soon be coming up against the start of the deepest of the Russian defences - it would take a complete collapse of the Russian forces to achieve.
Of course we all hope it happens, but it’s not realistic.
MillionMilesAway
Well-Known Member
Unless there is a spectacular collapse of ruSSian defences or there’s a new ruSSian government that orders a total withdrawal, ukraine will not take Crimea this year
The occupiers have had months to construct minefields and defensive structures/lines and they will have set their artillery to the exact measurement, so as good as the equipment Ukraine has and no matter how brave the Ukranian military is, they will not make enough progress this summer and autumn
There are the logistics of supply and maintenance to consider as well if the Ukrainians do take a lot of territory back
With regards to the ruSSian artillery being set, this is why it is of the utmost importance that the Ukrainians destroy as much of it as possible before a really big push
Presumably one main issue is that they can't go for Crimea directly?
The land route is going to be a bottleneck which would be a killing zone, so they're trying to cut off the supply lines first to isolate Crimea from support - is that fair?
dickie davies
Well-Known Member
Without a doubtPresumably one main issue is that they can't go for Crimea directly?
The land route is going to be a bottleneck which would be a killing zone, so they're trying to cut off the supply lines first to isolate Crimea from support - is that fair?
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
Where was this? In Ukraine? Or russia?
Ukraine
mosssideblue
Well-Known Member
Fair enoughThey’ve advanced lines around 100km in the deepest skirmishes since the start of the offensive and still have thousands of km2 to clear out and will soon be coming up against the start of the deepest of the Russian defences - it would take a complete collapse of the Russian forces to achieve.
Of course we all hope it happens, but it’s not realistic.
Churchlawtonblue
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 3 Dec 2013
- Messages
- 14,864
Really? Sorry but I just don't see it. The offensive by Ukraine has stalled. They don't have air superiority sadly.Did you also wave the white flag when we drew with Forest in February?
The right time, the only sensible time, to evaluate this counteroffensive will be when the clocks go back at the end of October. To characterise is as stagnated after a few weeks is absurd.
Until the west steps up big time , I just can't see Ukraine kicking the Russians out if their country. By that I mean stopping all business with Russia, excluding them completely, making China understand that their best interests lie with the west and not the tin pot Russain state. Its all or nothing I'm afraid, at the moment the west is pussy footing around.
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