Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Illia Ponomaren

@IAPonomarenko

We're all terribly at ease now. We seem to have entirely forgotten the fact that -- above everything else -- Ukraine is fighting a war of defense against one of the world's largest military powers that enjoys an immense stock of resources, along with a colossal material legacy of the Soviet military. It's a fucking man-made miracle that, over 600 days into the full-scale invasion, we are where we are, and 80% of Ukraine's territory is free from occupation and has *relatively* peaceful life. Neither Kyiv, nor Kharkiv, or Odesa, or Lviv, are under Russian occupation. Just recall the days of February 2022 and Russia's Kyiv-in-three-days bravado.
Back then, did any of the critics of today's Ukraine expect the crushing defeat of Russia's blitzkrieg at Kyiv?Or the sinking of the Moskva cruiser? Or the fact that Russia still being not even close to having Donbas captured by the end of 2023? Or Ukraine's Kharkiv breakthrough? Or the triumphant liberation of Kherson? Or the Snake Island? Or the battle of Bakhmut that lasted a year? Or the Russian defeat at Mykolaiv? Or drone attacks on Moscow & the Kremlin? Or Russian strategic airfields and Black Sea Fleet HQs being wiped out? Or Ukraine's military mastering dozens of Western-provided weapon types, from artillery to advanced air defense, on the fly? Or Russia losing close to 2,500 tanks in combat?
Or the fact that Ukraine survived a winter of Russian missile attacks on the heating and electric supply grid? Or the fact that Russia was forced to declare mobilization for the first time since 1941 and 1914 and to mass-recruit suicidal convicts? Or the Kremlin begging Iran for drones and North Korea for ammo to go on?Or the fact that Ukraine completely retook the initiative in the war and initiated a full-scale counter-offensive operation to possibly bring the war to an end?
Or Ukraine talking not only about the national survival but the return to the legitimate national borders of 1991 as the war's ultimate end goal?
How many of those things were realistically expected as half of the world was sighing, shaking its head, expressing concerns, and saying Ukraine would be done for soon? Some of us need to come down to earth and recall it that Ukraine has stood against Russia all this time. It's a fucking man-made miracle that, 615 days on, we're talking about THIS. We've made a light-year-long way over the last 20 months.Especially given the fact of how little the chances were and how disproportionate are the combating powers.And how little and late Ukraine gets its resources to go on fighting. However, this thing works the other way around, too. Some people need to wake up and realize that Ukraine is combating a defensive war against Russia. So if we want this all to end in a good way, Ukraine needs to get all the necessary instruments BEFORE it mounts a potentially decisive, extremely difficult counteroffensive -- not AFTER the operation fades away due to insufficient resources provided to her again due to the fear of "escalation
 
From The Analyst:

MILITARY UPDATE

The northern front had a number of actions but little took place that changed anything.
The primary news in the east is that Russia has for some reason decided to activate offensive operations around Bakhmut, with artillery and suicide drones being used in large numbers though apparently to little effect.
This shows you how compartmentalised the Russian military can be. Your supply box gets filled with what you’re given and you get to use it. Even when your next door neighbours box in the middle of an offensive against Avdivka is suffering from a lack of artillery, ammunition and suicide drones. Nobody asks you to send them where they’re needed and yet the high command still expects that offensive to be pressed with all the vigorousness they have come to expect, resources expended or not.
North of Klieshievka and south of Andrivka Ukraine has continue to push past the railway line which to all intents and purposes is now under their control from Bakhmut south to Zelenopilia.
Little has changed at Avdivka. The Russians are on the cusp of entering the coking plant in the north east of it. Being in the vicinity however is not the same as being able to enter it. It’s believed to be heavily fortified and will take an age and heavy resources. Frankly I wouldn’t bother with it. I think they will try to take the land to west of it and get closer to the urban areas south west of the plant.
Little else happened yesterday. Ukraine made small gains west of Robotyne as they widen the salient.
Kherson continues to cause the Russians huge grief. Them Ukrainians seem to have retained their position at Krynky. Opsec is super high and nobody on the Ukrainian side is saying anything. However the Russians leak like a sieve and there confusion is what stands out. The Ukrainian forces seem to have them running around like headless chickens trying to expunge one position only to find they’ve gone and they’re somewhere else. Ukraine is said to be shipping as many as 60-70 men over in small boats at regular intervals creating a growing force.
It needs to be noted that yesterday Russian losses passed the estimated 300,000 mark. That means Ukraine’s is probably around a third of that. It’s a depressing figure for either of them. Not that Russian government cares at all. To them it’s just a statistic.

Slava Ukraine !
 
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