Russian invasion of Ukraine

BlueAnorak said:
Sadly the plain fact is that the Russians have to lose in Ukraine. The whole of Europe's (and probably the Western World's) future depends on it. If they win we will be fighting WW3 very soon after (or surrendering and handing over other democracies over to tyranny).
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You keep posting the numbers yourself, and astonishing they are, so how can you then say "If they win" ?

They can't win, they can't even take small places like Bahkmut or Avdiivka (been at that one for 9 years too). There is only one possible outcome, and that is a win for nobody anywhere, just defeat for the whole of human kind (China won't allow that outcome).

They simply have no tactics that work, they have very little real military support in the world (north korea and iran), and neither of those will commit their armies to this cause, despite their bluster.

Who else ? China - no chance, and putin might be a fool, but he's not going to get into bed with islamists, he's already had enough trouble with them in the past.

There is no russia victory, and even if there were, they are not just going to tramp across the rest of europe anytime soon.

This has largely become a stalemate for now, with minor small victories on both sides, and as you point out at some point russia will have lost nearly all it's equipment, because they simply can't replace what they are losing, and even second rate conventional western weapons are too good for theirs.

Then there's their economy, it's trashed, they can't keep spending on this war indefinitely. At some point putin will have no choice but to seek another alternative imho, though sadly many many more will die in the meantime (on both sides).
 
cleavers said:
You keep posting the numbers yourself, and astonishing they are, so how can you then say "If they win" ?

They can't win, they can't even take small places like Bahkmut or Avdiivka (been at that one for 9 years too). There is only one possible outcome, and that is a win for nobody anywhere, just defeat for the whole of human kind (China won't allow that outcome).

They simply have no tactics that work, they have very little real military support in the world (north korea and iran), and neither of those will commit their armies to this cause, despite their bluster.

Who else ? China - no chance, and putin might be a fool, but he's not going to get into bed with islamists, he's already had enough trouble with them in the past.

There is no russia victory, and even if there were, they are not just going to tramp across the rest of europe anytime soon.

This has largely become a stalemate for now, with minor small victories on both sides, and as you point out at some point russia will have lost nearly all it's equipment, because they simply can't replace what they are losing, and even second rate conventional western weapons are too good for theirs.

Then there's their economy, it's trashed, they can't keep spending on this war indefinitely. At some point putin will have no choice but to seek another alternative imho, though sadly many many more will die in the meantime (on both sides).
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The Russians can win if the west stops supporting Ukraine. It could happen.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
The Russians can win if the west stops supporting Ukraine.
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Not necessarily. I think you’re underestimating the resolve, bravery and skill of the Ukrainians. They won’t give in, they have nowhere else to go, it’s their country, their home.

Even if Russia somehow managed to overwhelm the country they’d be mired in guerilla warfare for years, just like they were in Afghan, and that didn’t end up how they wanted.

Finally, let’s suppose that they do subjugate Ukraine, how much would that have exhausted their military, industrial and financial resources? They’d barely have enough left for two weeks in an Albanian hotel never mind trying to take on NATO. We’d absolutely fuck them up.
 
Scottyboi said:
If any of you say that Ukraine is losing,then I would very very strongly suggest otherwise.
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Whilst we all desperately want it to be true, the Aussie doing an AMA on Reddit atm (confirmed by mods as 18 month service in AFU) is pretty unequivocal that as of now, Ukraine certainly aren’t ‘winning’ - he has lost countless friends so far with Mines responsible for the majority and is clear that losses are much closer to 1:1 than publicly stated, mentions the rumoured stat of 40:1 Russian artillery to Ukrainians and says they feel it on the ground, says that his unit has received none of the donated NATO items, says corruption is endemic with no accountability - they are left without food and they are not paid what they’re owed, what little they get paid goes on food and water. His units drones, thermal images and night vision are personally sourced and funded….

Perhaps most importantly he says that it is going to be a very long and protracted grind and Ukraine needs far, far more than NATO are providing in order to ‘win’ if there can ever be a winner amidst such devastation.
 
Iassel said:
Whilst we all desperately want it to be true, the Aussie doing an AMA on Reddit atm (confirmed by mods as 18 month service in AFU) is pretty unequivocal that as of now, Ukraine certainly aren’t ‘winning’ - he has lost countless friends so far with Mines responsible for the majority and is clear that losses are much closer to 1:1 than publicly stated, mentions the rumoured stat of 40:1 Russian artillery to Ukrainians and says they feel it on the ground, says that his unit has received none of the donated NATO items, says corruption is endemic with no accountability - they are left without food and they are not paid what they’re owed, what little they get paid goes on food and water. His units drones, thermal images and night vision are personally sourced and funded….

Perhaps most importantly he says that it is going to be a very long and protracted grind and Ukraine needs far, far more than NATO are providing in order to ‘win’ if there can ever be a winner amidst such devastation.
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Didn't say they were winning, the argument was that they aren't losing by any stretch of the imagination. Not like you to appear with a load of negativity though is it. And no chance losses are closer to 1:1 or Ukraine wouldn't even have Kherson.
 
VICTORIES FOR UKRAINE

Time for some good news. Today 105 ships have now arrived at and departed from Odesa, carrying grain to the wider world. They sailed down the Ukrainian coast and through Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish territorial waters.
Why is this such a great victory? For one Ukraine has no navy. None. Yet it has destroyed a Russian submarine, sunk a massive missile cruiser, several frigates, landing ships, recaptured gas rigs and driven the Russians out of the eastern Black Sea. They have crippled the air defences in Crimea and completely dominated the environment in that zone. And despite the Russian strikes on Odesa and its port it’s not stopped foreign ships and it hasn’t halted exports - vital income generating exports. However you look at it, it’s a huge strategic victory and a total failure for Russia.
And today, Ukraine announced it had landed on the south bank of the Dnepr. Officially admitting it has taken a foothold on the occupied Kherson side of the river totally undermined the declaration from the Governor of Kherson that they weren’t there and had been destroyed. That they are there is a victory.
Every day that Ukraine exists and every day it fights is another victory. Every dead Russian soldier, destroyed tank, drone, artillery, BMP and support vehicle is another victory.
Every act of resistance inside Russia - and there are many - is another victory.
The war is not won but it is far from lost. Everyone who keeps the Ukrainian banner flying in their mind and in their heart is another step towards the final victory.
It will come. And Russia’s fascist regime will meet its doom.

Slava Ukraini !
The Analyst
 
Iassel said:
Whilst we all desperately want it to be true, the Aussie doing an AMA on Reddit atm (confirmed by mods as 18 month service in AFU) is pretty unequivocal that as of now, Ukraine certainly aren’t ‘winning’ - he has lost countless friends so far with Mines responsible for the majority and is clear that losses are much closer to 1:1 than publicly stated, mentions the rumoured stat of 40:1 Russian artillery to Ukrainians and says they feel it on the ground, says that his unit has received none of the donated NATO items, says corruption is endemic with no accountability - they are left without food and they are not paid what they’re owed, what little they get paid goes on food and water. His units drones, thermal images and night vision are personally sourced and funded….

Perhaps most importantly he says that it is going to be a very long and protracted grind and Ukraine needs far, far more than NATO are providing in order to ‘win’ if there can ever be a winner amidst such devastation.
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What, you thought that this was going to be a breeze?

Conflicts like this are never simple and take huge amounts of time as each side moves their piece.

However, all I have seen for you is negativity to Ukraine, and I understand the need to be unbiased, but your shit really does stink.
 
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