From the "The Analyst":
BATTLE FOR CHASIV YAR BEGINS
A massive Russian assault involving just about everything they could use was hurled at Chasiv Yar yesterday.
An unusual mix of well trained units coupled to randomly assigned units with little experience attacked on a wide front - their biggest problem quickly becoming apparent. The usual failure of coordination caused by poor equipment for many, lack of proper radios in the untrained units, and simple lack of any experience quickly saw those units losses soar.
The attack came in front of the town’s eastern most extremities.
The attack began with massive artillery attacks and multiple glide bombs to suppress Ukrainian fire, resulting in the destruction and ruin of everything standing, Russia’s usual way of proceeding.
The Russians started with a column of 8 BMP’s keeping well separated, but one diverted off as they got near acting as some kind of distraction. It was quickly stopped and its soldiers got out - you can imagine their terror when they realise they’re on their own and about to die, their lives a valueless distraction to their commanders.
The other 7 BMP’s took their troops into the small forest that allows them to assault the canal district, a line they must cross. The vehicles quickly tried to withdraw having left their troops to fight.
At this point the excellence of Russian coordination came to the fore once again as the VKS Su-25’s in the area dropped a stack of bombs on their own troops and wiped them out.
This clearly shows how Russian command lines work and how rigidly bureaucratic they are. Intelligence estimates are that it takes around 4 hours to order a strike on a position, by which time it’s not uncommon for the ground forces to have advanced into an area that was authorised for a strike 4 hours previously. There isn’t any way for ground forces to be able to stop it and they wouldn’t have been considered worthy enough to be told it was coming.
The Ukrainian military had been expecting just such an assault on the town, entrenching in front of high rise buildings and in key streets.
The Russians were unable to make their further assaults stick at all and were left only with forested area. They have still not cleared the canal. Inevitability says they will storm it again and use heavy bombs to break any resistance. Now they know this works they will do it again and again. Only air defences can change this pattern.
There are arguments that the Russians won’t yet try and cross the canal line that is heavily defended and runs north-south. They will instead try and spread out to take the rest of the villages on the eastern side and push the Ukrainians back from there.
If they manage to take the rest of Ivaniske in the south and Bohdanivka in the north, that will give them a huge flanking advantage to come around the north and south of Chasiv Yar, crossing the canal in more weakly defended areas. By creating a pocket they will force the Ukrainian forces to withdraw without a long and bitter fight in the urban sprawl of the town.
You may remember from the Bakhmut siege that there are underground tunnels from there to Chasiv Yar - you can only hope that this time Ukraine has blocked them after the lessons in south Avdivka.
It is looking increasing like the Russians are readying for two possible assaults against the eastern front in the spring-summer. Chasiv Yar is certainly one, the other may be a widening of the attempts to take Kupiansk. Retaking that and moving on to Lyman and eventually Izyum would be their goals. These are of huge strategic importance and would signal a real and permanent change in any chance of a successful outcome for Ukraine.
That’s why we cannot let that happen.
There is still talk of moving closer to Kharkiv - as distraction and buffer. If this happens it’s Ukraine’s own fault for drawing so much attention to the area with these wasteful incursions by ‘free’ Russia forces. If they hadn’t let this happen it would not be under consideration.
Slava Ukraini !
amp.theguardian.com