Russian invasion of Ukraine

From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

RUSSIANS OPEN NEW ATTACK ON KONSTANTINIVKA

Ukrainian defences on this long contested front have been reliant on mines and heavy drone use - a situation the Russians are well aware of. As they began preparations for another offensive they knew they would have to use more of their precious tanks and armour than they have in some time.
This was spotted by drones well in advance and the Ukrainians used their MLRS systems to break up or inhibit Russian forces as they gathered.
The first success came as the Ukrainian made ‘Shark’ recon drone, operating at its maximum range of around 60km from base spotted a pair of BUK-M1 anti air missile launchers, one of which the video shows, clearly fires at the drone.
It missed and the HIMARS strike that followed is clearly observed by the drone as missiles take out both units.
That it seems was all the SAM defences the Russian offensive was to be given.
Russian plans were designed to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces by pushing north, south and in the centre of the line, giving them no time to distribute their defence forces to a specific point.
We have to remember that when we talk about armoured assaults these days, it’s a handful of tanks with maybe a BMP or MT-LB along for the ride, sometimes it’s as few as one tank. The Ukrainian mines took care of almost all of the armoured vehicles- so much so that eventually the Russians were forced into sending in a T-72 with mine clearing equipment - something they have few of and use rarely, to open up the northern axis of attack. It lasted around twenty minutes before a swarm of kamikaze drones wiped it out.
On the southern axis the Russians gave troops several dozen motorcycles (there were insufficient APC variants to go around due to losses), and a handful of tanks. With so many vehicles and over 100 troops the Ukrainian 77th brigade had no problem seeing them coming. This area is known to the Russians as they tried attacking here before.
Video proves that Ukrainian artillery and drones totally blunted this attack - the destruction appears unusually intense from the video footage - with at least ten units incinerated. The video clearly shows dead and burned corpses, BMP-1, 2 and several MT-LB, along with unrecognisable tank variants. Several dozen motorbikes are clearly wrecked.
The terrain here was relatively open so whoever commanded this operation knew it must be high risk but did it anyway, using up valuable Russian vehicle resources and wasting the lives of some 100+ men, for zero gain.
The extraordinary part of this is it seems this attack and even the one in the north were distractions for the central spike attack against Kinstantinivka.
Here the Russians threw in a Turtle Tank, several T-90M, T-80’s and MT-LB supported by infantry and new BMP-3’s.
The Ukrainian forces threw the whole defensive cabinet of weaponry at this force. A combination of ATGM’s, FPV drones, including the Switchblade-600, artillery and existing powerful anti-tank mines.
Stage one is to disable the Russian tanks and vehicles to stop them moving using FPV’s to hit engine bays and tracks. Once these are immobile the artillery, but mostly other drones, are sent in to make sure the vehicles are actually destroyed if they can’t be recovered. Other drones hunt down Russian survivors.
The scale of the Russian operation at this stage in the war shows they managed to scour a large area for the vehicles necessary but seemed to have no real appreciation for the level of defences they faced. They were quite prepared to send in what amounts to a sizeable armoured force these days, but which would have been laughed at by their own side as inadequate two years ago. The fact they managed to loose the only anti-drone defences they had in the BUK systems before the operation began didn’t help, but even these would’ve made little real difference. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES: …
If we look at the tactics of WW2 you will find this type of attack repeated often by Soviet forces - but on a front of even this small size some 500 tanks and some ten thousand troops would have been involved - it was on a scale that modern Russia simply cannot fathom or even begin to match.
Even now the Russians hold dear old style strategy and tactics with vastly less equipment and manpower than they can muster. Did they expect some grand strategic breakthrough? Did they expect to sweep in to victory thinking they had the resources because now, in this war, it seems such a powerful force? It’s almost as if they failed to remember the war and the nature of war has changed.
Mobile forces only succeed against defences like this if you totally overwhelm them - 500 tanks and 10,000 men would have done the job. But those days are gone and never coming back. When they had it they squandered it. Now they don’t have it they waste it lacking any real appreciation for what’s truly needed.
Russia will not win on the battlefield like this. The problem is that Ukraine doesn’t have the means to roll them back and exploit their defeat.

Slava Ukraini
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‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
 
I'm afraid the daily review on Ukraine wonien't be with us for a few days as the author, Annieli, got somthing wrong in the Day 874 Review and has been put on the bench for a while as a result.
She must spend hours checking and collating information on the Eussian invasion of Ukraine and to be treated the way she has for one mistake is a disgrace to be honest - one that Putin and all Russian genocidal maniacs on T'Internet will love.
 
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Stuff 17/07:

An Economist article in the above posting of note about Russian armoured vehicle and artillery production is this one:
https://archive.ph/D9FTf (web archive)
 
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