Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elbow beards]

And some people think that they would somehow sweep through Europe taking country after country.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Nobody is winning or losing, it's been a stalemate for well over a year, with tit for tat destruction on both sides, and gains of tens of metres on either side, despite what the bbc would have you believe (about winning/losing).

On one side Ukraine have developed their own new longer range missiles, which they mostly use on legitimate military or infrastructure that supports the conflict. On the other side, russia continues to use it's old stock pile, often to just level infrastructure (military and civilian), both sides are losing military, but one side much quicker than the other due to their stupid tactics, one side has had to import military from another stupid country, the other had had only training help from outside.

One side loses civilians, most people reading this thread will have forgotten Mariupol 2 1/2 years ago, not to mention those who have been spirited away (many children) into russia from the occupied areas.

I don't know the state of the Ukraine economy, as little is ever mentioned, but I can't imagine it's great, though they do get help economically from the west. Russia's is in a terrible mess, both because of their stupidity, and sanctions (caused largely by the same stupidity).

Nobody is winning or losing.

I can add a tiny bit to this, although it may be relatively inconsequential. We are close to a number of Ukrainians through our refugee family. I can tell you that 1-2 years ago when I talked to them about what they would accept for peace, their take was “nothing but the restoration of the old border”. Now they all agree that they would give Putin what he has. War has broken their resolve. Their husbands are on the front line and the family members who stayed are at risk every day.

Sadly I’m sure that’s the only way out of this now

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I can add a tiny bit to this, although it may be relatively inconsequential. We are close to a number of Ukrainians through our refugee family. I can tell you that 1-2 years ago when I talked to them about what they would accept for peace, their take was “nothing but the restoration of the old border”. Now they all agree that they would give Putin what he has. War has broken their resolve. Their husbands are on the front line and the family members who stayed are at risk every day.

Sadly I’m sure that’s the only way out of this now

Not saying you’re wrong mate, we are where we are, but it depends what comes with it that NATO countries do have some control over. There is absolutely no point in agreeing to that if other matters aren’t robustly addressed, especially meaningful NATO guarantees (if not membership) the sanctions being tightened and enforced and the frozen assets not being returned. Otherwise there is absolutely no point agreeing to anything and they may as well just hand the lot over right now.

I feel especially sorry for any Ukrainians who will be stuck the wrong side of the line, having drawn the shortest of short straws being forced to live in a country as undeniably shit as Russia.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Not saying you’re wrong mate, we are where we are, but it depends what comes with it that NATO countries do have some control over. There is absolutely no point in agreeing to that if other matters aren’t robustly addressed, especially meaningful NATO guarantees (if not membership) the sanctions being tightened and enforced and the frozen assets not being returned. Otherwise there is absolutely no point agreeing to anything and they may as well just hand the lot over right now.

I feel especially sorry for any Ukrainians who will be stuck the wrong side of the line, having drawn the shortest of short straws being forced to live in a country as undeniably shit as Russia.

Of course massive guarantees and strong negotiation would be needed mate. I was just trying to post simplistically that ultimately they will accept some kind of settlement. With regards to those on the wrong side of the line they just said that they will have to be repatriated. They have also repeatedly said “he will be back for more” so it’s still a doom ridden scenario for them, it’s Just the best option available. What was also interesting was that they were pleased Trump got elected.

When they first arrived they thought Boris Johnson was a hero. I had to put them straight on that one ;-)

 

[grunge]

And some people think that they would somehow sweep through Europe taking country after country.

Sweep no, insidious creep through Europe maybe.

One thing that is safe to say. Russia has shifted to a full war economy. the risk from them is growing rather than diminishing. especially in terms of hybrid warfare.

the next few months will be "intresting"

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Of course massive guarantees and strong negotiation would be needed mate. I was just trying to post simplistically that ultimately they will accept some kind of settlement. With regards to those on the wrong side of the line they just said that they will have to be repatriated. They have also repeatedly said “he will be back for more” so it’s still a doom ridden scenario for them, it’s Just the best option available. What was also interesting was that they were pleased Trump got elected.

When they first arrived they thought Boris Johnson was a hero. I had to put them straight on that one ;-)

I think, upon reflection, Biden’s diffidence and procrastination has been far too timid and was likely to be repeated by Harris. I think Russia’s reduction in recent months means the dynamic has changed in a way that makes it more likely, or should I say less unlikely, that Trump will not simply give Putin what he wants, although the caveat is that none of us know how compromised he is.

So their belief is certainly not without considerable risk, but I understand their desire to move the pieces on the board in the hope that something breaks favourably for them.

I think the repatriation thing could produce some interesting outcomes, in conjunction with considerable reparations (or equivalent) because it could (and most likely will) lead to a conspicuous juxtaposition between the land that Ukraine retains, which will presumably be subject to considerable investment, and the part that Russia has stolen which will be…well…in Russia, a state that cosies up to North Korea, treats its own citizens like shit and in general terms is a truly terrible place to live.

 

[b6_brum]

I can add a tiny bit to this, although it may be relatively inconsequential. We are close to a number of Ukrainians through our refugee family. I can tell you that 1-2 years ago when I talked to them about what they would accept for peace, their take was “nothing but the restoration of the old border”. Now they all agree that they would give Putin what he has. War has broken their resolve. Their husbands are on the front line and the family members who stayed are at risk every day.

Sadly I’m sure that’s the only way out of this now

I've no doubt that the majority of Ukrainians would be willing to compromise to some sort of level. Like you said, a lot may even be willing to give Putin what he has. The issue is however, that giving him what he has won't appear to satisfy him. When people tell Ukrainians to negotiate, what exactly are they expected to negotiate? Putin has essentially claimed they have no right to exist as a nation and hasn't changed his tone one bit. There will be no guarantees for them even if he changes his tone, as his word is useless anyway. I expect more and more of them will be less willing to die for a cause they feel they can't win, that's entirely natural and I think the majority of people would be the same. Some, however will always carry on fighting. The argument I guess is do you keep on backing these people for as long as it takes?

 

[Manchester33]

There's a video doing the rounds on that Combat Footage subreddit of 'close quarters combat' between a Ukrainian and Russian.

Probably the grimmest thing I've ever seen. Utterly horrific. I won't post it on here, but it's easy to find.

War is pure hell.

 

[cleavers]

I feel especially sorry for any Ukrainians who will be stuck the wrong side of the line, having drawn the shortest of short straws being forced to live in a country as undeniably shit as Russia.

They should (but won't sadly) be allowed to live on whatever part of the territory they wish if there is a carve up.

I can add a tiny bit to this, although it may be relatively inconsequential. We are close to a number of Ukrainians through our refugee family. I can tell you that 1-2 years ago when I talked to them about what they would accept for peace, their take was “nothing but the restoration of the old border”. Now they all agree that they would give Putin what he has. War has broken their resolve. Their husbands are on the front line and the family members who stayed are at risk every day.

Sadly I’m sure that’s the only way out of this now

I think you're right, and I can fully understand their change of thought, but it's not just up to those that left, those that are still there have to have the biggest say, as they have endured all this time.

 

[cleavers]

And some people think that they would somehow sweep through Europe taking country after country.

That theory is laughable when seen in this context, and what this map doesn't tell us is how much equipment and personell they have lost taking so little.

That "gain" of territory is seen by news outlets like the bbc as russia "winning", which is a ridiculous take on things really.