Russian invasion of Ukraine

[MCFC1993]

My one worry with these sanctions is if this goes on too long they could have the opposite effect. I think they are hoping either the Russian people or one of Putin's benefactors has enough of their lives being ruined and takes action against him. But it could also have the effect of unifying them and making it a us vs them scenario and I'm not sure where things would go if it got to that.

I suppose it depends how close the people are to their government and whether or not they recognise how much power they actually have (to get rid of him).

He's launched a war in their name (they know this), the war is going badly for him, are they going to unify behind that, not so sure.

 

[hello]

Maybe but what have the ukrainians got to lose? A war they did not want, dying at the hands of a dictator only to end up becoming a part of the new Russia. Nothing should be off the table. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

It only a thought my you and will most likely will not happen.

The only possible attacks in Russia would be black ops against the railways in the south west of Russia to further disrupt Russian logistical re-supplies. No way they would start firing indiscriminately into Russia.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The West was largely disbelieving Putin would actually invade (seems a lot of Russians didn’t think he would either) and that securing the two separatist regions was the actual objective.

Even if we had threatened this level of sanctions, I doubt if Putin would have believed the West would carry them out. The level of sanctions and unity is emotionally driven, triggered by an actual threat. Absent the reality of this threat no one would be even advocating these sanctions let alone implementing them.

Fair points.

I think Putin will begin to destroy Ukraine as punishment for refusing to be ‘liberated‘ and that will trigger further emotional responses - whether that extends to some military intervention, I really much doubt, but then I never thought Putin would be this reckless and I never thought the West would react so strongly, so what the fuck do I know.

Also agreed, although I cannot see the west doing anything that would *tangibly* risk WW3. I mean seriously, we have what appears to be a fairly weak US President (and his backing would be essential), 4,000 miles away, being asked to risk the lives of tens of millions of Americans in order to protect a non-NATO country that used to be part of Russia.

It's unimaginable.

 

[Gorton_Tubster]

Stupid question , is the War happening because of the Americans ?

Someone explain

What do you think could have caused it? Serious question. Ie what are the different reasons you think.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

That's because it was fought in a jungle.

True enough, America didn't level Hanoi and the main cities.

All the same, that amount of bombing would normally be enough to force any smaller fighting force in to submission.

 

[Chippy_boy]

He’d have done it anyway. The only way this wasn’t kicking off if is he’d have got his legal guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO.

Hmmmmm. Maybe.

And maybe we should have given those guarantees, in return for a legal guarantee that Russia would never invade Ukraine (and therefore mean NATO membership was not needed).

Of course he could in future break his word and invade anyway... in which case we'd be where we are now, i.e. no worse off. But this war would have been avoided.

 

[Gorton_Tubster]

That's because it was fought in a jungle.

Afghanistan wasn't. Iraq wasn't. It fails every time doesn't it? I mean invading another country. It always comes undone in the end.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I don't see it like that.

The west's HUGE fuck up was weeks and months ago with wishy-washy talk about sanctions and not spelling out really, really, really clearly to Putin what the consequences for invasion would be and just how bad it would be for him personally. Then when he made his initial proclamation of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, we imposed really limp sanctions. This gave him a big green light to carry on.

Since then, we have to a much greater extent "thrown the book at him". Although we can still do more. But I am sure the west's response is FAR more coordinated and severe than he was bargaining on. The problem is, having gone into Ukraine - which we really should have prevented in the first place - he now has nowhere to go. He cannot back down. That's why we've really fucked up. I seriously wonder if he regrets where he is right now - I suspect he does.

And I don't see him attempting the same with e.g. Finland or Sweden. The situation is entirely different. He tried to justify the action against Ukraine on the basis that it's natural, cultural home is Russia. And even so, he's seen such and enormous domestic backlash. He cannot possibly make the same claims over Finland or Sweden etc. He'd be completely mad to even try it, and contrary to the lazy narrative, he is not mad.

Lets face it the crux of this whole issue is based upon the state of Putin's mind - He has no council as far as we can see to speak of, he has unfettered power, he has always been emotionally detached from the well being of his own people and lives for the state and pangs for the past glories of their empire and was indoctrinated from a very young age in the KGB mindset.

His 1 hour tirade prior to giving the orders for them to go in was the first time I can recall him resembling an incoherent despot who was hell bent on unleashing his pent up frustrations at any cost on the nato expansion East to his own doorstep.

This is not the Putin of yesteryear who lets face it was a very good political tactician on the domestic and international stage (albeit with the full use of the dark arts). He always thought like a chess player 3 or 4 moves ahead and today we see this older man after a few years of physical isolation making a whole host of unforced errors on the international stage and very soon on the domestic one. He is now acting like someone who has nothing to loose which makes me conclude he has abandoned his own risk/reward assessment models when making decisions. He may not be clinically mad but he is definitely now mentally unstable.

 

[twosips]

World ending?

I'd suggest not checking the Internet every ten minutes and get on with your life you wet blanket.

Dead hard you, aren't ya! I did say potentially, and it's in reference to nuclear escalation.

Have a read of this. It's unlikely but not impossible and not unreasonable for people to be concerned.

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.

www.politico.com

 

[Chippy_boy]

Lets face it the crux of this whole issue is based upon the state of Putin's mind - He has no council as far as we can see to speak of, he has unfettered power, he has always been emotionally detached from the well being of his own people and lives for the state and pangs for the past glories of their empire and was indoctrinated from a very young age in the KGB mindset.

His 1 hour tirade prior to giving the orders for them to go in was the first time I can recall him resembling an incoherent despot who was hell bent on unleashing his pent up frustrations at any cost on the nato expansion East to his own doorstep.

This is not the Putin of yesteryear who lets face it was a very good political tactician on the domestic and international stage (albeit with the full use of the dark arts). He always thought like a chess player 3 or 4 moves ahead and today we see this older man after a few years of physical isolation making a whole host of unforced errors on the international stage and very soon on the domestic one. He is now acting like someone who has nothing to loose which makes me conclude he has abandoned his own risk/reward assessment models when making decisions. He may not be clinically mad but he is definitely now mentally unstable.

Hard to disagree with that assessment. Worryingly.