Russian invasion of Ukraine

[wolviedinho]

I think it benefits Ukraine to stay entirely defensive.

The strategy you talk about would have happened years ago but I think it suits Ukraine to say we just want our sovereignty, leave us alone.

I admire this stance but realistically how long can Ukraine hold out? If it is street to street fighting maybe but Putin is coming with a huge army and unfortunately this war is only going 1 way.

 

[mosssideblue]

But not militarily it won't. It's militarily futile.

EDIT Unless we deploy US and EU armed forces directly and again, I think there is ZERO chance of that.

Not to the Ukrainians, they will believe they can beat the odds

For sure, Russia have a much greater military advantage to call upon, but it's not always the case that the bully wins.

Ultimately, Ukraine will maintain its independence, and whilst they fight for their rights, they will get the full support from its Ally's

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

I don't see it like that.

The west's HUGE fuck up was weeks and months ago with wishy-washy talk about sanctions and not spelling out really, really, really clearly to Putin what the consequences for invasion would be and just how bad it would be for him personally. Then when he made his initial proclamation of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, we imposed really limp sanctions. This gave him a big green light to carry on.

Since then, we have to a much greater extent "thrown the book at him". Although we can still do more. But I am sure the west's response is FAR more coordinated and severe than he was bargaining on. The problem is, having gone into Ukraine - which we really should have prevented in the first place - he now has nowhere to go. He cannot back down. That's why we've really fucked up. I seriously wonder if he regrets where he is right now - I suspect he does.

And I don't see him attempting the same with e.g. Finland or Sweden. The situation is entirely different. He tried to justify the action against Ukraine on the basis that it's natural, cultural home is Russia. And even so, he's seen such and enormous domestic backlash. He cannot possibly make the same claims over Finland or Sweden etc. He'd be completely mad to even try it, and contrary to the lazy narrative, he is not mad.

Agree with all of that. We left it so late there is no off ramp for Putin to walk away, so he's at the stage where he doesn't care about kill ratios and such, only how much rubble he can leave in Ukraine.

He can't back down now because he's fucked either way.

 

[andyhinch]

Why would they though? By the sounds of things they don't agree with what's going on any more than the rest of the world.

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

You know when something sounds crazy, it’s usually because it is.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Not to the Ukrainians, they will believe they can beat the odds

For sure, Russia have a much greater military advantage to call upon, but it's not always the case that the bully wins.

Ultimately, Ukraine will maintain its independence, and whilst they fight for their rights, they will get the full support from its Ally's

So I pose the same question to you I posed to Scottyboi.

In the case of a positive outcome (for Ukraine and the west), how do you see this panning out?

 

[RandomJ]

My one worry with these sanctions is if this goes on too long they could have the opposite effect. I think they are hoping either the Russian people or one of Putin's benefactors has enough of their lives being ruined and takes action against him. But it could also have the effect of unifying them and making it a us vs them scenario and I'm not sure where things would go if it got to that.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

LBC saying that loads of ruskies are abandoning their vehicles in that convoy and fucking off

 

[mosssideblue]

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

Not sure that would be wise as the Russians would retaliate with nastier weapons, not giving any shit's for loss of civilian life. Also, the Ukraine's have finite military hardware and need that to stave off the advancement.

 

[MCFC1993]

I admire this stance but realistically how long can Ukraine hold out? If it is street to street fighting maybe but Putin is coming with a huge army and unfortunately this war is only going 1 way.

It depends how long the can delay Russia.

All these tanks and armoured vehicles Russia are coming with don't hold up well against drones and anti-tank launchers.

If the Ukraine can get air superiority with these jets that have been promised then I don't see Russia making tonnes of progress.

Economic sanctions will hurt Russia, their army will start running out of supplies.

 

[BobKowalski]

I don't see it like that.

The west's HUGE fuck up was weeks and months ago with wishy-washy talk about sanctions and not spelling out really, really, really clearly to Putin what the consequences for invasion would be and just how bad it would be for him personally. Then when he made his initial proclamation of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, we imposed really limp sanctions. This gave him a big green light to carry on.

Since then, we have to a much greater extent "thrown the book at him". Although we can still do more. But I am sure the west's response is FAR more coordinated and severe than he was bargaining on. The problem is, having gone into Ukraine - which we really should have prevented in the first place - he now has nowhere to go. He cannot back down. That's why we've really fucked up. I seriously wonder if he regrets where he is right now - I suspect he does.

And I don't see him attempting the same with e.g. Finland or Sweden. The situation is entirely different. He tried to justify the action against Ukraine on the basis that it's natural, cultural home is Russia. And even so, he's seen such and enormous domestic backlash. He cannot possibly make the same claims over Finland or Sweden etc. He'd be completely mad to even try it, and contrary to the lazy narrative, he is not mad.

The West was largely disbelieving Putin would actually invade (seems a lot of Russians didn’t think he would either) and that securing the two separatist regions was the actual objective.

Even if we had threatened this level of sanctions, I doubt if Putin would have believed the West would carry them out. The level of sanctions and unity is emotionally driven, triggered by an actual threat. Absent the reality of this threat no one would be even advocating these sanctions let alone implementing them.

I think Putin will begin to destroy Ukraine as punishment for refusing to be ‘liberated‘ and that will trigger further emotional responses - whether that extends to some military intervention, I really much doubt, but then I never thought Putin would be this reckless and I never thought the West would react so strongly, so what the fuck do I know.