Russian invasion of Ukraine

mosssideblue said:
Your asking why would he. He is pissed that the USSR broke up and wants to reestablish it. What would be your suggestion if he went for one of the minor NATO countries on his doorstep?
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He invaded Ukraine because Ukraine has shared history, culture and influence that he'd prefer to keep for Russia as you've just proven.

That isn't going to extend further, there's no reason for him to invade a country like Poland because why? It could happen with Estonia or the other ex-USSR states for the reasons you've given but they're all NATO countries so he can't do it?

Attacking any of them would result in a NATO response whether that's conventional defence, nuclear war or who knows but either way his attack would be obliterated.

The only scenario I can see where he invades a western country is one where he goes rogue but then we and him are all screwed. Given that fact then why would he bother to invade? Why wouldn't he just nuke us first?
 
inbetween said:
He invaded Ukraine because Ukraine has shared history, culture and influence that he'd prefer to keep for Russia as you've just proven.

That isn't going to extend further, there's no reason for him to invade a country like Poland because why? It could happen with Estonia or the other ex-USSR states for the reasons you've given but they're all NATO countries so he can't do it?

Attacking any of them would result in a NATO response whether that's conventional defence, nuclear war or who knows but either way his attack would be obliterated.

The only scenario I can see where he invades a western country is one where he goes rogue but then we and him are all screwed. Given that fact then why would he bother to invade? Why wouldn't he just nuke us first?
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Apart from being unpredictable and a dictator, he'd do it because Trump has enabled him now
 
inbetween said:
He invaded Ukraine because Ukraine has shared history, culture and influence that he'd prefer to keep for Russia as you've just proven.

That isn't going to extend further, there's no reason for him to invade a country like Poland because why? It could happen with Estonia or the other ex-USSR states for the reasons you've given but they're all NATO countries so he can't do it?

Attacking any of them would result in a NATO response whether that's conventional defence, nuclear war or who knows but either way his attack would be obliterated.

The only scenario I can see where he invades a western country is one where he goes rogue but then we and him are all screwed. Given that fact then why would he bother to invade? Why wouldn't he just nuke us first?
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What if he says pushes into Moldova by just a mile, do NATO go full scale and batter him how far do they go? Do they start firing into Russia to stop missile attacks or do you think they might let that 1 mile go and try to talk to him (there is no talking to him btw) then he withdraws then does it again and again! A bully only understands one thing, he knows he’s probably got a year before his country economically collapses, militarily it’s fucked and NATO without the USA would crush him, that’s why he’s using Trump and whatever he has on him. I’d absolutely piss myself of Trump signs a deal with Ukraine and does an about turn on Putin and piles more weapons etc than ever to push them out, however sadly that will not happen.
 
inbetween said:
As much as I feel for Ukraine I do not want to send my children to war. If Ukraine has to lose a bit of territory for that to happen then unfortunately in my opinion they will have to sign on the dotted line for the sake of everyone else.
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If there was going to be nuclear war with russia, we'd all be long dead by now, if there had been a chance it would have been March / April 2022 when the west started sending weapons to Ukrain that were better than the old soviet shit they had (emphasis on had), because most of it has now gone. Why anyone in the UK thinks they'd have to send their kids to war I have no idea, the british armed forces will never bring in conscription, they want professional people, not cannon fodder.

inbetween said:
What many on here do not understand is that Russia is a nuclear armed power with an army bigger than ours who also has many friends capable of sustaining it.
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They HAD a bigger army 3 years ago, they're now using donkeys to resupply what's left, the mighty nuclear power that they are.
 
b6_brum said:
The thing is, we're not being asked to fight the war. Our only commitment has been essentially arming a country that are asking for tools to have a fair fight after being invaded.

If Ukraine wanted to stop & were happy to cease territory, who would we be to tell them what to do? But they haven't, they want to carry on fighting & the reason must be that they deem their armed forces fighting Russian aggressors in barren land is the lesser evil than their civilian population being slaves to the Kremlin.

We keep hearing what an armed power they are, of course, but they've hardly been able to steam roll themselves through Ukraine. They've at best, took about 20% of a country for the best part of a million casualties, whilst spending over 7% of GDP on their military in the mean time without any hope of inflation dropping below 20%. The longer they're in the game, the more irreversible damage they are doing to their country.

I don't think any of us enjoy seeing young men die, but one man is responsible for that, and if millions of civilians are to be endured to being slaves with the eradication of their culture, willing men fighting for their country and being armed appropriately may seem a better alternative.
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I totally understand this and I'm not against helping Ukraine. I don't subscribe to the Trump approach which is seemingly to just abandon Ukraine but surely we have to question the strategy of what comes next?

Some do mention that we should continue because the Russian economy will falter but there's far more to it than that. Putin oversees a gangster state and he will be the last person to starve and in any event the Chinese are not going to allow Russia to fail.

Are we then going to sanction or go to war with China too? What about the oligarchs and their money that has been moved to the likes of the UAE? Should we sanction the UAE? The very people who own our football club are friends with Russia so shall we now boycott the club?

Hopefully anybody can see just how complicated this actually is.
 
b6_brum said:
We keep hearing what an armed power they are, of course, but they've hardly been able to steam roll themselves through Ukraine. They've at best, took about 20% of a country for the best part of a million casualties, whilst spending over 7% of GDP on their military in the mean time without any hope of inflation dropping below 20%. The longer they're in the game, the more irreversible damage they are doing to their country.
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They took about 50% of Ukraine in Feb 2022, since then they've lost about 60% of that, so yes they have ~20% currently, and are not really gaining any new ground, and have lost some of their own to Ukraine. As you point out, it's an unmitigated disaster for their economy, and the poorer people in russia (where many of those dead were recruited from).
 
To me Trump's "ceasefire" is a red herring anyway. Remember he spent his first term bleating on about the tremendous and beautiful deals he would strike with Kim Jong Un, the Palestinians etc. and nothing ever happened. There's been no concrete progress with Russia so far. He might block further Ukraine funding from the US but he can't stop Europe from stepping into the breach if they really want to.
 
Any chance of europe doing a deal with Ukraine for the minerals so they can pay the yanks back and tell them to fuck off so they can negotiate their own deal to end the war with support from Europe?
 
117 M34 said:
Any chance of europe doing a deal with Ukraine for the minerals so they can pay the yanks back and tell them to fuck off so they can negotiate their own deal to end the war with support from Europe?
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www.politico.eu

EU offers its own ‘win-win’ minerals deal to Ukraine

“The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that’s not mutually beneficial,” top official Stéphane Séjourné says.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
Brilliant. Putin says he could cut his Defence budget by 50% with the US doing the same. Obviously these 2 have talked about this.

So, why do we still need to spend more on Defence if Putin cuts his funding, understanding that the US has his back?

Perfect solution for both parties. Russia, after being embarrassed by its so called military might, can have parts of Ukraine and get to sort their finances out while the Trump and his cronies get to syphon ff more funds for themselves and the rich people.
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Because we can't trust Russia, North Korea, etc, etc Neither can we trust China whose armed forces are far bigger than they actually claim.
foreignpolicy.com

China’s Defense Budget Is Much Bigger Than It Looks

The actual number could be more than double the current Western estimate.
foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com
Russia WILL declare a hybrid war on a Baltic state or Moldova or other Eastern European nation or Asiatic former SSR if it is in any way successful in Ukraine.
Putin wants the old USSR back - he had made that crystal clear.
Simples
 
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cleavers said:
Who would be your choice to go talk to trump ? farage, johnson, truss ?

Lets see what happens when he visits before making judgement, but at least he's saying the right things at this stage.
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But TBF that is not a very difficult thing to do right now.... I reckon any political leader, regardless of their colour (blue or red) would be saying pretty much the same thing.
 
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