gordondaviesmoustache
Well-Known Member
I think European leaders will accept what Ukraine will accept. If Ukraine fights on then Europe will continue its support, but Ukraine losing territory was always likely in any settlement to end the war. Putin desperately needs something to show for three and a half years of war and a million casualties and Ukraine lost control of some of its eastern provinces back in 2014. I don’t see a new border based around that fault line being a deal breaker for Ukraine.
What we don’t know is the state of the frontline for either side or the true state of the Russian economy and how much pressure is on Putin to do a deal given the original aim was the whole of Ukraine and any settlement based on an eastern portion of Ukraine is a failure for Russia. Ukraine coming out of this largely intact and still existing as a sovereign country is a win for them given no one gave them a chance back in 2022.
Europe has to remain vigilant, though. Keep the pressure on with sanctions and ensure Ukraine is fortified militarily and countries like Poland and Finland will keep building their forces given their distrust of Russia has never gone away.
EU membership is also a must for Ukraine given that carries a security guarantee. NATO is preferable, but something is better than nothing and I wouldn’t trust the Americans going forward anyway.
Putin is the key, though. All discussions and talks to date have not included Putin, so if Putin shows up for these talks it may finally indicate a realisation that Russia isn’t going to win this war on the battlefield.
The Russian media on the state of their economy. It isn’t great.
I’m in broad agreement with what you’ve posted here. I accepted some time ago that military and territorial reality will need to be faced up to, and that will necessarily entail Russia keeping most of what it has stolen, if some sort of cessation of warfare on the frontline is to be arrived at. It won’t amount to a cessation of hostilities though. Russia will carry on being cunts, because that is what they do.
Like you say, Europe needs to look to the future following any such ‘settlement’ to take every available step to ensure this does not happen again. This will entail measures that are military, political and financial. My worry is that Russia is allowed back into the fold by osmosis in terms of things like sanctions being eased in Europe (we absolutely cannot rely upon America in that regard) and participation in international sporting events. I, for one, would not engage in any way in a World Cup that Russia was invited to participate in. I would simply ignore it.
I would also want the £300 billion that has been seized from the murdering thieves to be deployed in rebuilding Ukraine, along with further support from the west. This will then serve as a telling juxtaposition to the situation in the land that Russia has stolen the cost of which rebuilding will be huge, and as you say, Russia will not be as well placed to undertake such an exercise, which I expect will be a bigger one than faced in Ukraine, given the toll in stealing that land has taken on its infrastructure, given the MO deployed.
