Scottish Independence

[mcfc1632]

If we are leaving the EU then I don't think the government would have the resources to deal with Scotland leaving as well. I fear that Scotland will have to wait until we leave the EU.

I'm not sure that would be a bad thing negotiations wise as I don't think it will be pleasant dealing with a Boris Johnson right wing nationalist government.

I think the fairest thing to do is give Scotland its referendum post Brexit.

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Give them the vote - during 2020 - commit to the vote happening in 2024

That would spike the SNP guns and ensure that the vote happens after the UK has fully left the EU

If that is the case then (IMO) no way are Scotland going to vote to leave the Union - because the implications of what that means would become clear during the campaign

The only chance they have is to get a vote in 2020/21 and that is not going to happen ​

 

[Cubbage74]

 

[Saddleworth2]

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Give them the vote - during 2020commit to the vote happening in 2024

That would spike the SNP guns and ensure that the vote happens after the UK has fully left the EU

If that is the case then (IMO) no way are Scotland going to vote to leave the Union - because the implications of what that means would become clear during the campaign

The only chance they have is to get a vote in 2020/21 and that is not going to happen ​

Whilst you know I don’t agree with your assessment of the likelihood of Scottish independence because you underestimate the Johnson effect, I do see logic in what you propose. I think it would be fair if we had a trustworthy government in Westminster. However with these dishonest Tories, it’s a bit like a husband saying to a wife, ‘sure we can talk about divorce but only in a few years time and I will continue to abuse you and asset strip your wealth in any way I see fit until then’.
I believe Johnson will not grant a referendum which will consequently put the onus on the Scottish Government to find a way around that. I think they can unilaterally call for an advisory referendum without w3stminster approval and we all know how the outcome of those must be respected ;-). Whichever way, like it or not we are headed for years of constitutional crisis on top of Brexit. This isn’t going to go away.

 

[Metal Biker]

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Give them the vote - during 2020commit to the vote happening in 2024

That would spike the SNP guns and ensure that the vote happens after the UK has fully left the EU

If that is the case then (IMO) no way are Scotland going to vote to leave the Union - because the implications of what that means would become clear during the campaign

The only chance they have is to get a vote in 2020/21 and that is not going to happen ​

That's actually not a bad idea.

Scotland gets it's independence vote only once a trade deal with the EU and the UK has been sorted.

Would put pressure on Sturgeon to assist getting a deal done as soon as possible, because she ain't getting her vote without it, and gives the people of Scotland a clearer picture of their union with England/Wales/NI. Stay in UK with new EU trade deal, or leave UK and be left with applying for the EU as an outsider.

 

[mcfc1632]

Whilst you know I don’t agree with your assessment of the likelihood of Scottish independence because you underestimate the Johnson effect, I do see logic in what you propose. I think it would be fair if we had a trustworthy government in Westminster. However with these dishonest Tories, it’s a bit like a husband saying to a wife, ‘sure we can talk about divorce but only in a few years time and I will continue to abuse you and asset strip your wealth in any way I see fit until then’.
I believe Johnson will not grant a referendum which will consequently put the onus on the Scottish Government to find a way around that. I think they can unilaterally call for an advisory referendum without w3stminster approval and we all know how the outcome of those must be respected ;-). Whichever way, like it or not we are headed for years of constitutional crisis on top of Brexit. This isn’t going to go away.

Ok - but now is the time to start the debate in a rational manner. It needs to be taken in steps.

What you say above that I have bolded - I suggest is in line with my 2 key points, which are:

1. The only real prospect of a vote in Scotland to leave the UK is if it was dominated by 'national sentiment' - e.g. frustration of being out of the EU, hatred of the UK government etc. I strongly suggest that there is little chance of a vote within Scotland to leave the UK if it was to take place following Brexit being completed and within a climate that allows for the Scottish electorate to be made aware of the true implications of what Scotland will have to achieve/implement once they are in that situation.

2. That there is indeed very little chance of a vote in Scotland to leave the UK if it was not certain that there was a path back into the EU.

So - I am happy to debate these views and I am not asking that you agree with them, but can you accept that these are my 2 assertions - there are more, but these are all that are needed to prove the case IMO.

If you can accept that these are the basis of my level of certainty that Scotland will not vote to Leave the UK if the UK has already fully left the EU - can you comment on the point 2 above, i.e. can you envisage that Scotland would vote to be out of the UK and out of the EU?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Ok - but now is the time to start the debate in a rational manner. It needs to be taken in steps.

What you say above that I have bolded - I suggest is in line with my 2 key points, which are:

1. The only real prospect of a vote in Scotland to leave the UK is if it was dominated by 'national sentiment' - e.g. frustration of being out of the EU, hatred of the UK government etc. I strongly suggest that there is little chance of a vote within Scotland to leave the UK if it was to take place following Brexit being completed and within a climate that allows for the Scottish electorate to be made aware of the true implications of what Scotland will have to achieve/implement once they are in that situation.

2. That there is indeed very little chance of a vote in Scotland to leave the UK if it was not certain that there was a path back into the EU.

So - I am happy to debate these views and I am not asking that you agree with them, but can you accept that these are my 2 assertions - there are more, but these are all that are needed to prove the case IMO.

If you can accept that these are the basis of my level of certainty that Scotland will not vote to Leave the UK if the UK has already fully left the EU - can you comment on the point 2 above, i.e. can you envisage that Scotland would vote to be out of the UK and out of the EU?

I understand what you are saying but I’m not sure it’s entirely logical. You seem to be assuming that Brexit will be a success and that because of that the Scottish population will settle down, stop being so chippy and fall in love with the Union again. That presupposes that Brexit will be of benefit to the Scottish people and I don’t think it will. A completed Brexit is as likely to increase support for independence in Scotland as it is to reduce it.

Your second point talks about certainty and I don’t believe there will be certainty at the point of a referendum. As long as the Scottish government can provide a plausible flight path back into the EU, that may well be enough. So I actually think there are problems with both of your points although as we are both putting forward opinions, either of us may be proved right, wrong or something in between.

And every time the dishonest Tories tell us that they wont grant a referendum, they recruit 1000’s more to the independence cause. If you have any knowledge of the Scots psyche, you will know that the surest way to get a Scot to do something is to tell them they can’t.
I think this will get extremely ugly and I am truly concerned as to where it will end. You just need to look at Spain and Catalonia and other historical examples of thwarted independence.

 

[blueinsa]

Its been said a few times of late but it is correct.

Scotland should get a vote once brexit has been done and the benefits/negatives of the future trade deal with the EU can be seen.

Wouldn't want them making a decision without knowing the full facts would we?

 

[blueinsa]

At the same game they had a remembrance RIP pic of one of the terrorist twats that murdered the 2 soldiers in Northern Ireland by dragging them out of the taxi in front of the world on their big screen.

Who gives a fuck what they think.

 

[mcfc1632]

I understand what you are saying but I’m not sure it’s entirely logical. You seem to be assuming that Brexit will be a success and that because of that the Scottish population will settle down, stop being so chippy and fall in love with the Union again. That presupposes that Brexit will be of benefit to the Scottish people and I don’t think it will. A completed Brexit is as likely to increase support for independence in Scotland as it is to reduce it.

Your second point talks about certainty and I don’t believe there will be certainty at the point of a referendum. As long as the Scottish government can provide a plausible flight path back into the EU, that may well be enough. So I actually think there are problems with both of your points although as we are both putting forward opinions, either of us may be proved right, wrong or something in between.

And every time the dishonest Tories tell us that they wont grant a referendum, they recruit 1000’s more to the independence cause. If you have any knowledge of the Scots psyche, you will know that the surest way to get a Scot to do something is to tell them they can’t.
I think this will get extremely ugly and I am truly concerned as to where it will end. You just need to look at Spain and Catalonia and other historical examples of thwarted independence.

I am not explaining it well or you are reading my intent wrong - probably a bit of both.

1. I am not presupposing that Brexit will be seen as a success by 2024 - even if I am certain it will be in the long term I have always said there will be years of 'difficulty'. So if anything I am expecting Brexit to be seen in a bad light amongst the majority of Scottish voters at the time of a 2024 Indyref2

But I would think that we can agree (I would hope so) that if Brexit is actually not seen as a failure for Scottish interests amongst the voters of Scotland - then the prospects of Independence recede further.

2. My 2nd point is the one that I ask you to give your view on - so I will ask it more clearly:

Do you think that there would be a good chance of an independence vote to leave the UK if the UK has already left the EU and there is nothing like a certain - OK - even pretty plausible route back into the EU for Scotland.

I just want to establish the baseline on this. I would have thought that everybody would scream out a resounding - 'NO CHANCE' - because can you really see the majority of Scotland voters to elect to be out of both the UK and the EU?

So once we have got to that baseline - we can discuss what would be a certain/plausible route back to the EU

Re: "So I actually think there are problems with both of your points although as we are both putting forward opinions, either of us may be proved right, wrong or something in between."

I agree we are putting forward opinions - but I am confident that your and other opinions will/should change to recognition that it is highly unlikely that Scotland would vote to leave the UK in 2024. Just want to clear out of the way that you could possibly feel that Scotland would or conceivably could elect to be out of both Unions

Re: "And every time the dishonest Tories tell us that they wont grant a referendum, they recruit 1000’s more to the independence cause..."

Most of that plays into the comments I made earlier about - the only chance I see there being for a Leave vote would be if the vote was held in the climate of emotion and nationalism rather than following an informed campaign - which would not be the case in the scenario I have set out.

An re: "If you have any knowledge of the Scots psyche, you will know that the surest way to get a Scot to do something is to tell them they can’t." >80% of the work that I have done for the last few years has been for SG and I am often up there mixing with senior SG people and other key individuals that would have insights. I have previously mentioned that I have done work for years with the guy that is 'Scotland's person in Brussels to pave the way...…"

So I think that I do

 

[Saddleworth2]

I am not explaining it well or you are reading my intent wrong - probably a bit of both.

1. I am not presupposing that Brexit will be seen as a success by 2024 - even if I am certain it will be in the long term I have always said there will be years of 'difficulty'. So if anything I am expecting Brexit to be seen in a bad light amongst the majority of Scottish voters at the time of a 2024 Indyref2

But I would think that we can agree (I would hope so) that if Brexit is actually not seen as a failure for Scottish interests amongst the voters of Scotland - then the prospects of Independence recede further.

2. My 2nd point is the one that I ask you to give your view on - so I will ask it more clearly:

Do you think that there would be a good chance of an independence vote to leave the UK if the UK has already left the EU and there is nothing like a certain - OK - even pretty plausible route back into the EU for Scotland.

I just want to establish the baseline on this. I would have thought that everybody would scream out a resounding - 'NO CHANCE' - because can you really see the majority of Scotland voters to elect to be out of both the UK and the EU?

So once we have got to that baseline - we can discuss what would be a certain/plausible route back to the EU

Re: "So I actually think there are problems with both of your points although as we are both putting forward opinions, either of us may be proved right, wrong or something in between."

I agree we are putting forward opinions - but I am confident that your and other opinions will/should change to recognition that it is highly unlikely that Scotland would vote to leave the UK in 2024. Just want to clear out of the way that you could possibly feel that Scotland would or conceivably could elect to be out of both Unions

Re: "And every time the dishonest Tories tell us that they wont grant a referendum, they recruit 1000’s more to the independence cause..."

Most of that plays into the comments I made earlier about - the only chance I see there being for a Leave vote would be if the vote was held in the climate of emotion and nationalism rather than following an informed campaign - which would not be the case in the scenario I have set out.

An re: "If you have any knowledge of the Scots psyche, you will know that the surest way to get a Scot to do something is to tell them they can’t." >80% of the work that I have done for the last few years has been for SG and I am often up there mixing with senior SG people and other key individuals that would have insights. I have previously mentioned that I have done work for years with the guy that is 'Scotland's person in Brussels to pave the way...…"

So I think that I do

Let me ask you a more fundamental question. What scenario would need to be in place for the Scots to drop all this silly nonsense? How would the UK look politically and what would have to be in place to satisfy the Scottish desire to have its voice heard as an equal part of the Union?
Then ask how yourself how likely is that scenario to be in place within a decade. Its a rhetorical question as you and i both know that scenario will not happen and given that, we have significant constitutional tension until that scenario is in place.

The fundamental political values are now too different between the two countries for any easy reconciliation. Brexit has widened an already significant delta. The more Johnston is Johnston, the bigger the delta between the two countries will become and the stronger the nationalistic views will become on both sides. Do you really think Boris Johnson will bring us together? - he is far more likely to want to 'tough it out'. Remember this is a man that creates 'enemies and targets' to win elections. He is already starting to move against those that stood in his way. I fully expect the matter of a second referendum to end up in the courts of both countries. So you see, I see this as an acceleration of the last 5 years or so - I think there is little chance that Scotland will be more supportive of the Union after three years of Brexit and Johnson. Quite the reverse.

On your second point about rejoining the EU, I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments. After all, there was no real guarantees last time and it was hardly a landslide for NO. Given the years since that vote and the absolute shitshow of Westminster politics I really couldn't say. Not every referendum vote is entirely logical after all. Fwiw, I don't think the independence question will be asked unless and until there is a plausible flightpath into the EU.

At the end of the day we are miles apart in believing just how badly independence tensions between England and Scotland might be impacted by the approach taken by the respective governments and how that might impact any second vote. What a bloody mess.