The Conservative Party

[Gabriel]

It is, except....

I'm not so sure the Tories will hang on for another two years.

You might need to elaborate on what you mean by that.

If they went to the polls within the next 12 months, of their own volition, it would be electoral Armageddon and perhaps even three terms in opposition. I can therefore only envisage an ‘early‘ election if the Government is overtaken by a scandal, such as the PPE contracts, and it becomes untenable to continue.

 

[The perfect fumble]

You might need to elaborate on what you mean by that.

If they went to the polls within the next 12 months, of their own volition, it would be electoral Armageddon and perhaps even three terms in opposition. I can therefore only envisage an ‘early‘ election if the Government is overtaken by a scandal, such as the PPE contracts, and it becomes untenable to continue.

As Harold Macmillan famously said..."events, my dear boy, events".

And we're going to have lots of events over the next two years.

Imagine if there were riots, huge can't pay, won't pay protests, continuous strikes one overlapping another, NHS collapse, unemployment rising, appalling cold weather deaths, drastic increase in poverty driven theft, increasing reliance on food banks, even more rampant inflation, a housing price crash.

And these are just off the top of my head.

The political pressure to call an election would be overwhelming.

This government is tired and divided, at least a third of Tory MPs despise Sunak and his "soft" socialism, they don't consider him or his government Conservative at all, which means Sunak is at their mercy, u-turning on a daily basis to keep them onside, but it's an impossible task and effectively neutralises anything he wants to do. The right wing Reform UK is nibbling at Tory support, 9% in the opinion polls now. Every other day it seems another Tory MP declines to stand again. There are so many scenarios where a crunch moment might occur, that it's not difficult to imagine one or a combination actually happening.

 

[Vic]

Can't argue with any of this.

It's impossible to know what Starmer is thinking, he might well fancy a coalition. If he goes in to an election spouting he'll make Brexit work, he'll deprive the Tories of one of their main criticisms of him. If the outcome is a coalition with the Lib Dems, he can blame them if he's "forced" to call another referendum.

Who know? And the fact that nobody does is both a strength and a weakness.

Posted today in the Starmer thread - but only one view of what he's about.

What would politics look like if Starmer’s plan was working? Like it does now | Rafael Behr

His own party remains cautious, but Tories are pretty sure he is heading for No 10, says Guardian columnist Rafael Behr

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bodicoteblue]

As Harold Macmillan famously said..."events, my dear boy, events".

And we're going to have lots of events over the next two years.

Imagine if there were riots, huge can't pay, won't pay protests, continuous strikes one overlapping another, NHS collapse, unemployment rising, appalling cold weather deaths, drastic increase in poverty driven theft, increasing reliance on food banks, even more rampant inflation, a housing price crash.

And these are just off the top of my head.

The political pressure to call an election would be overwhelming.

This government is tired and divided, at least a third of Tory MPs despise Sunak and his "soft" socialism, they don't consider him or his government Conservative at all, which means Sunak is at their mercy, u-turning on a daily basis to keep them onside, but it's an impossible task and effectively neutralises anything he wants to do. The right wing Reform UK is nibbling at Tory support, 9% in the opinion polls now. Every other day it seems another Tory MP declines to stand again. There are so many scenarios where a crunch moment might occur, that it's not difficult to imagine one or a combination actually happening.

Then, of course, there is the other ‘doomsday scenario’ where in the face of (very possible) civil unrest, this rabble of a government decides that it is in the ‘public interest’ to suspend normal government and send the troops onto the streets to defend the ‘British way of life’ as a way of staying in power without the tiresome need to have elections, which they know they can’t win.
This may seem a bit far-fetched, but this lot have demonstrated a remarkable ability to ignore or completely flout all the accepted norms and standards of parliamentary democracy.
I think that they are capable of worse things yet.

 

[Vic]

It's not all bad news for Sunak, it's true his poll numbers are terrible but not the wipe out levels they were under Truss. Voter ID and boundary changes will help him massively.

But there are real problems for Labour as well, their support is soft.

A YouGov poll shows 63% of the public think Labour’s poll lead is largely against the government, with only 11% saying it is based on support for the party itself.

Sifting through all this shit and factoring in we don't have proportional representation and recognising that tactical voting is more talked about than a real thing, as it stand the Tories lose the next election to a Labour led coalition.

I'm not in the Labour Party anymore so I don't have a handle on Labour's ground game. I'd appreciate it if anyone still in might enlighten me as to where it stands.

One of the less well reported aspects of the infamous "Beergate" was the question what were the Westminster crowd doing in Durham for the Hartlepool by-election anyway? If memory serves they were there because the local party ground game wasn't working and Starmer and his inner circle had to parachute in draped in the union flag and do the heavy lifting themselves.

If this situation is indicative of the party nationally then Labour are in trouble. Despite what bluethrunthru might bang on about, in politics if you shit on your ground troops they'll not go over the top, they'll not go over the top for you if you lie to them either and for Labour that matters.

Page after page of how shit the Tories are is old man yells at cloud, it changes nothing, It's not enough to know what you hate to win an election.

Apart from one or two Starmer haters, our constituency party is just glad to be back to some sort of unity with even Momentum members quiet. We have a common enemy seems to be the watchword, partly because local Tories now seem more like the Nasty Party than previously (social media may be corrosive again).

Locally, Momentum members never did much on the doorstep or leafletting anyway. Maybe they'd have turned out more if "their" candidates had been selected for local elections.

 

[Gabriel]

As Harold Macmillan famously said..."events, my dear boy, events".

And we're going to have lots of events over the next two years.

Imagine if there were riots, huge can't pay, won't pay protests, continuous strikes one overlapping another, NHS collapse, unemployment rising, appalling cold weather deaths, drastic increase in poverty driven theft, increasing reliance on food banks, even more rampant inflation, a housing price crash.

And these are just off the top of my head.

The political pressure to call an election would be overwhelming.

This government is tired and divided, at least a third of Tory MPs despise Sunak and his "soft" socialism, they don't consider him or his government Conservative at all, which means Sunak is at their mercy, u-turning on a daily basis to keep them onside, but it's an impossible task and effectively neutralises anything he wants to do. The right wing Reform UK is nibbling at Tory support, 9% in the opinion polls now. Every other day it seems another Tory MP declines to stand again. There are so many scenarios where a crunch moment might occur, that it's not difficult to imagine one or a combination actually happening.

Conservative MPs had until December 5th to signal their intentions, so I expect that tap to be closed now. As for the other scenarios, they’re all certainly conceivable but maybe not probable.

I think they’ll stay in power and just hope that they can struggle on to the end, uneventful and uninspiring.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Posted today in the Starmer thread - but only one view of what he's about.

What would politics look like if Starmer’s plan was working? Like it does now | Rafael Behr

His own party remains cautious, but Tories are pretty sure he is heading for No 10, says Guardian columnist Rafael Behr

www.theguardian.com

All shortcomings massaged into virtues, all lies excused in pursuit of the greater good.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Conservative MPs had until December 5th to signal their intentions, so I expect that tap to be closed now. As for the other scenarios, they’re all certainly conceivable but maybe not probable.

I think they’ll stay in power and just hope that they can struggle on to the end, uneventful and uninspiring.

I beg to differ, but time will tell.

 

[oldius]

The recent select committee meetings have been utterly embarrassing, and the lies clear to behold.

Suella lying about safe and legal routes.


Mark Harper refusing to answer if the government deliberately inserted inflammatory conditions to effectively end rail/union negotiations, at the eleventh hour.

 

[Vic]

Conservative MPs had until December 5th to signal their intentions, so I expect that tap to be closed now. As for the other scenarios, they’re all certainly conceivable but maybe not probable.

I think they’ll stay in power and just hope that they can struggle on to the end, uneventful and uninspiring.

They were asked to signal their intentions. Not much the party can do if they say later that they're wanting to spend more time with their families (or donors).

I suspect few will say with Tony Benn that they're giving up being an MP in order to spend more time in politics.