The Conservative Party

Mike N said:
They’ve managed to come up with a choice of two complete shits! No chance at the next election.
Click to expand...
They almost certainly will have a chance. Labour won a majority from a low turnout and an election where the opposition was split. More people voted Tory+Reform than did Labour.

If the Tories bring in a figure who can unite the right then Reform are made pointless and much of that vote will go to the Tories.

The real question is whether the votes of those people who voted Lib Dem instead of Tory will be lost forever but I doubt it'll make as much of a difference as the votes lost to Reform.
 
inbetween said:
They almost certainly will have a chance. Labour won a majority from a low turnout and an election where the opposition was split. More people voted Tory+Reform than did Labour.

If the Tories bring in a figure who can unite the right then Reform are made pointless and much of that vote will go to the Tories.

The real question is whether the votes of those people who voted Lib Dem instead of Tory will be lost forever but I doubt it'll make as much of a difference as the votes lost to Reform.
Click to expand...

It's not going to be the exact same people in five years time. A significant number of reform's voters will be ineligible to vote...because they'll have passed away.

Old angry men don't live long lives.
 
inbetween said:
They almost certainly will have a chance. Labour won a majority from a low turnout and an election where the opposition was split. More people voted Tory+Reform than did Labour.

If the Tories bring in a figure who can unite the right then Reform are made pointless and much of that vote will go to the Tories.

The real question is whether the votes of those people who voted Lib Dem instead of Tory will be lost forever but I doubt it'll make as much of a difference as the votes lost to Reform.
Click to expand...
The Gaza situation lost Labour a lot of votes too that may return, depending on the situation.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
It's not going to be the exact same people in five years time. A significant number of reform's voters will be ineligible to vote...because they'll have passed away.

Old angry men don't live long lives.
Click to expand...
We've had 5 elections over the last 15-20 years and only 1 of them has seen Labour achieve anything remotely resembling power. The key factor for the Tory wins in all of those elections was the right were mostly united. In that time we also had Brexit which came to be shaped by the policies of Reform and 17.5m voted for it. With Farage in Parliament that sentiment is only going to grow again.

Labour won because people were sick of the Tories however at this rate people are already becoming sick of Labour. Obviously it's early days and it's almost pointless talking about it but the direction of travel isn't looking good.

I was hopeful but it's becoming clear that Starmer is not Tony Blair and it's questionable whether he will be bold enough. It feels like his appeal is going to wane and well if things stay the same then the next election will just be Starmers Cameron-esque government versus a Tory led faction that potentially includes Farage's Reform. There will only be one winner.

I wouldn't vote for it but I think the only opponent who could challenge against this would be a Corbyn character.
 
inbetween said:
We've had 5 elections over the last 15-20 years and only 1 of them has seen Labour achieve anything remotely resembling power. The key factor for the Tory wins in all of those elections was the right were mostly united. In that time we also had Brexit which came to be shaped by the policies of Reform and 17.5m voted for it. With Farage in Parliament that sentiment is only going to grow again.

Labour won because people were sick of the Tories however at this rate people are already becoming sick of Labour. Obviously it's early days and it's almost pointless talking about it but the direction of travel isn't looking good.

I was hopeful but it's becoming clear that Starmer is not Tony Blair and it's questionable whether he will be bold enough. It feels like his appeal is going to wane and well if things stay the same then the next election will just be Starmers Cameron-esque government versus a Tory led faction that potentially includes Farage's Reform. There will only be one winner.

I wouldn't vote for it but I think the only opponent who could challenge against this would be a Corbyn character.
Click to expand...
Are you deliberately ignoring the fact that the vast majority of the electorate are in the centre ground and the choice of the blue rinse brigade is what shade of darkest blue do they want to lead them?
Many thousands of centre right voters who haven't already deserted the self servatives will judging by the choice of leader they have.
Currently 121 MP's, don't be surprised if that halves after the next GE
 
inbetween said:
They almost certainly will have a chance. Labour won a majority from a low turnout and an election where the opposition was split. More people voted Tory+Reform than did Labour.

If the Tories bring in a figure who can unite the right then Reform are made pointless and much of that vote will go to the Tories.

The real question is whether the votes of those people who voted Lib Dem instead of Tory will be lost forever but I doubt it'll make as much of a difference as the votes lost to Reform.
Click to expand...

But Reform voters weren't Tories.

Labour did appear to win some extra seats because of Reform, but they would still have had a huge majority. The significant majority of Reform voters said they'd have voted for other parties, or not voted, if Reform weren't standing.

Unless we get to leave the EU again, I don't see any coalition that brings together a majority of Tories, and a majority of Reform voters.
 
bluenova said:
But Reform voters weren't Tories.

Labour did appear to win some extra seats because of Reform, but they would still have had a huge majority. The significant majority of Reform voters said they'd have voted for other parties, or not voted, if Reform weren't standing.

Unless we get to leave the EU again, I don't see any coalition that brings together a majority of Tories, and a majority of Reform voters.
Click to expand...
Leaving the ECHR will be their collective crusade.
 
law74 said:
Are you deliberately ignoring the fact that the vast majority of the electorate are in the centre ground and the choice of the blue rinse brigade is what shade of darkest blue do they want to lead them?
Many thousands of centre right voters who haven't already deserted the self servatives will judging by the choice of leader they have.
Currently 121 MP's, don't be surprised if that halves after the next GE
Click to expand...
The country may sit somewhere in the centre but that's only if you consider the country as voting on general issues but that isn't how people vote. Brexit proved that the country does not sit in any single place on any issue. It's actually almost impossible to sit in the centre on some issues such as immigration.

The right should be treated with peril because they will do well and their causes will grow with forces such as Farage in Parliament. Starmer does not want to answer these concerns and that is a risk given he had relatively limited support at the last election where he won seats but not necessarily that many votes.

Labour's polling has collapsed to 28% and if you add the Tories and Reform polling together their joint polling is 47%. How on earth would this at the very least not result in a Tory+Reform government if an election was held today given what we know about the likely future Tory leader?
 
TinFoilHat said:
Leaving the ECHR will be their collective crusade.
Click to expand...

They might try, but it's a poor tribute act compared with leaving the EU.

It has almost no effect on anyone's day to day life, and it would be a huge stretch to convince anyone otherwise. It can get people worked up occasionally, but there's no way you can spin it as being the cause of mass immigration.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top