The Labour Government

Something that has been going on for decades - guaranteed contracts for housing homeless people and asylum seekers is not a new policy.

As far as the people smugglers go, most of the research I've seen suggests that people wanting to come to the UK turn out to be incredibly ignorant about our benefits system, or housing situation. They're much more likely to come from countries that have English as a second language, or know that there are communities from their country already in the UK. If it was just down to housing, or benefits etc., then you wouldn't risk your life when there are plenty of other countries that offer similar, or take in a lot more refugees.
Hi Blue,
Without wanting to sound patronising, I just find that incredibly naive. I would suggest more research but you need to do more than just read statistics and articles that are usually biased one way or another.
I have lived and worked in and around some of the most ethnically diverse areas in the country for decades and I have many close friends from those ethnic groups who trust me enough to tell me the truth of how their communities function, they know my views on immigration but they know that they do not stem from racism, and in many cases our views on immigration are not very different.Talk to people, then you will really understand what is happening behind the statistics. I will give you an example.
Bangladeshis in the UK are more dependant on benefits than others in that benefits make up a greater proportion of their incomes than other groups. That is a fact, a statistic. If I didn't know better I might guess that may be because they are take up less skilled occupations etc. To a degree that is probably true.
But because I am familiar with the community, I also know this - The claiming of benefits is an industry in the Bangladeshi community, they have become expert at it. So many choose to work in the black economy in restaurants, small scale manufacture, taxis etc for cash and or part time hours on the books and then claim benefits. Their immigration lawyers are experts at it. The new arrivals are taken to the lawyers on arrival by their relatives / friends, processed through the system for maximum entitlement, lawyers are paid, relatives / friends are paid for the referral - everyone makes money ! Except the UK taxpayer of course.
To my certain knowledge many migrant communities are the same in that they have an efficient network with legal expertise to welcome new arrivals into the country and process them through the system to maximise their entitlements .
So yes, if you interview someone in the camps in Calais as to their knowledge of our benefits system then in most cases they would be short of the detail. To suggest they are ignorant is just naive, they know what they could get because those communities they belong to which as you suggest are already here will have told them about it and also told them not to worry about the detail because it will all be taken care of - they have a system.
Anyway , the point of the initial post is ....
If you have any belief at all in your ability to " Smash the gangs" why on earth would you be trying to sign up Landlords to a 5 year deal on their properties ? It will be interesting to see how many they sign up.
 
Hi Blue,
Without wanting to sound patronising, I just find that incredibly naive. I would suggest more research but you need to do more than just read statistics and articles that are usually biased one way or another.
I have lived and worked in and around some of the most ethnically diverse areas in the country for decades and I have many close friends from those ethnic groups who trust me enough to tell me the truth of how their communities function, they know my views on immigration but they know that they do not stem from racism, and in many cases our views on immigration are not very different.Talk to people, then you will really understand what is happening behind the statistics. I will give you an example.
Bangladeshis in the UK are more dependant on benefits than others in that benefits make up a greater proportion of their incomes than other groups. That is a fact, a statistic. If I didn't know better I might guess that may be because they are take up less skilled occupations etc. To a degree that is probably true.
But because I am familiar with the community, I also know this - The claiming of benefits is an industry in the Bangladeshi community, they have become expert at it. So many choose to work in the black economy in restaurants, small scale manufacture, taxis etc for cash and or part time hours on the books and then claim benefits. Their immigration lawyers are experts at it. The new arrivals are taken to the lawyers on arrival by their relatives / friends, processed through the system for maximum entitlement, lawyers are paid, relatives / friends are paid for the referral - everyone makes money ! Except the UK taxpayer of course.
To my certain knowledge many migrant communities are the same in that they have an efficient network with legal expertise to welcome new arrivals into the country and process them through the system to maximise their entitlements .
So yes, if you interview someone in the camps in Calais as to their knowledge of our benefits system then in most cases they would be short of the detail. To suggest they are ignorant is just naive, they know what they could get because those communities they belong to which as you suggest are already here will have told them about it and also told them not to worry about the detail because it will all be taken care of - they have a system.
Anyway , the point of the initial post is ....
If you have any belief at all in your ability to " Smash the gangs" why on earth would you be trying to sign up Landlords to a 5 year deal on their properties ? It will be interesting to see how many they sign up.

You can be as patronising as you like, because I think you're own view is simply overly cynical - naïvely so if you ask me ;)

I also don't want to sound patronising (I'm going to be, but appreciate your long response, so it's meant in a friendly manner) - however I see a lot of talk about the Bangladeshi community, yet, they're not a nationality that has any serious involvement in the channel boat crossings. Over the past few years, the boats have almost exclusively brought over people from countries such as Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Eritrea and Sudan. I would suggest that you check out some stats first, but I appreciate that you're not a fan.

The Bangladeshi community is a significant size in the UK, and has been for many decades - I'm not sure I'd be basing my knowledge of people from entirely different, mostly war-torn countries, making hazardous trips across the channel, with a completely different group of immigrants.

I've worked for years with plenty of vulnerable groups, including asylum seekers from a wide range of different countries, many of whom have come to the UK via illegal routes. My point was that asylum seekers aren't treated in a hugely different way to many other European countries, so the draw to the UK tends not to be down to detailed knowledge of the benefits system. If they just wanted housing and a small allowance, they'd stay in another country - they're mostly choosing the UK for other reasons. Your post seems to suggest that someone with a clipboard wandered around Calais, asking people to put their hands up if they know what PIP is, which again, sounds pretty naïve (sorry).

As for the main point - the UK generally takes less than their share of asylum seekers in the UK, and that number is relatively small in comparison with the overall population. It's not going anywhere, and we're never going to stop taking in refugees (I assume most people who have met more than a few refugees, wouldn't want to either). Some of the main reasons for the boat crossings increasing, is stronger controls at the official borders, and less cooperation with the EU, post Brexit. While it may be possible to make it harder for the gangs to operate, and we can work with the EU to minimise the risky crossings, I doubt we'll have a major reduction - and even if there were just 1000 asylum seekers a year, there would still likely be a need for housing. Bear in mind, that the rights of asylum seekers to do anything but sit around in state provided housing were gradually removed by the Tories. Add that to the fact that not much more than half a decade ago, there were only a few thousand who had to wait more than a year for claims to be decided - but that number has jumped tenfold, and you've got an issue that isn't going away within months, no matter how many gangs are smashed.

As I mentioned, these 5 year tenancies had been running for many years (so the ad is nothing new - it's just political mischief to highlight them as such), and the only way they wouldn't be needed, is if you expect asylum claims to drop to zero, and all outstanding claims to be decided immediately. It's the kind of thing that Andrew Neil would have pulled up a politician on, when he was a little more journalist, less angry old man.

ps. I don't doubt any of the comments you've made about your own experiences, and I'm not naïve about the fact that there is a large underground economy in the UK, or that there are people who take advantage of the system. I just think that Andrew Neil point is completely wrong.
 
Given the seats that are up in the locals, the only story in town is likely to be Tory losses to Reform.

Polling predictions are potential losses that could easily hit 500 for the Tories, but Labour are defending so few seats that their losses will be in the 10s (and a few pollsters have predicted they could gain a few seats).
Internal polling in my neighbouring Council shows Reform/Tories/Labour. Expected hung council with a ConForm coalition

As I've said before their goons have been out and about in pubs and cafes in the less affluent wards, along with boosted social media, promoting their bile. They are being told the nasty brown men are moving into to labour funded homes and being looked after over them.

A labour councillor in that area has been doing most of his electioneering on his own because the party have pretty much abandoned him for having the audacity to mention Gaza at a council meeting,
 
Internal polling in my neighbouring Council shows Reform/Tories/Labour. Expected hung council with a ConForm coalition

As I've said before their goons have been out and about in pubs and cafes in the less affluent wards, along with boosted social media, promoting their bile. They are being told the nasty brown men are moving into to labour funded homes and being looked after over them.

A labour councillor in that area has been doing most of his electioneering on his own because the party have pretty much abandoned him for having the audacity to mention Gaza at a council meeting,

I'm not suggesting Reform won't do well - but Labour are only defending a few hundred seats in these elections, and as far as I can see, just the one Council. The Tories were around 10pts clear in the national polls when they were last fought, and are defending nearly 1200 seats.

Labour are likely to struggle against Reform in some of the mayoral contests, but they just don't have that many seats that they can lose - and given that the national polling is still split three ways, they're still likely to win enough to not become the story.

I'd be surprised if this is anything other than a Reform taking on the Tories election. It will be interesting to see what happens next, because I'm not convinced either will want to be forming coalitions when one has taken so many of the other's seats.
 
I'm not suggesting Reform won't do well - but Labour are only defending a few hundred seats in these elections, and as far as I can see, just the one Council. The Tories were around 10pts clear in the national polls when they were last fought, and are defending nearly 1200 seats.

Labour are likely to struggle against Reform in some of the mayoral contests, but they just don't have that many seats that they can lose - and given that the national polling is still split three ways, they're still likely to win enough to not become the story.

I'd be surprised if this is anything other than a Reform taking on the Tories election. It will be interesting to see what happens next, because I'm not convinced either will want to be forming coalitions when one has taken so many of the other's seats.
I'd be interested to learn how many seats Reform take from the Tories as a percentage and the same for Labour. I'm guessing the numbers win't be too far apart, which will be a strong message to the main parties from the electorate....
 
I'd be interested to learn how many seats Reform take from the Tories as a percentage and the same for Labour. I'm guessing the numbers win't be too far apart, which will be a strong message to the main parties from the electorate....

There are parts of the country where you'd definitely get a lot of Labour seats going to Reform, but if you look at the majority of councils this time around I'm not sure they will tell us much about Labour at all.

Doncaster will be one which is likely a Labour/Reform battle, but for most of these councils, Labour has virtually no seats.

Reform are certainly likely to be seen as "winners", but if that strong message is that 75% of the electorate didn't vote for them, then I'd hope that politics isn't dragged in their direction (I realise you probably feel differently).
 
There are parts of the country where you'd definitely get a lot of Labour seats going to Reform, but if you look at the majority of councils this time around I'm not sure they will tell us much about Labour at all.

Doncaster will be one which is likely a Labour/Reform battle, but for most of these councils, Labour has virtually no seats.

Reform are certainly likely to be seen as "winners", but if that strong message is that 75% of the electorate didn't vote for them, then I'd hope that politics isn't dragged in their direction (I realise you probably feel differently).
Cannot disagree, its a bit like 66% or so of the population not voting for Labour last time and them ending up with a huge unchallengeable majority in Parliament. It is not right be that for Labour, Tories or even Reform which is where I think your point kicks in.
 
There are parts of the country where you'd definitely get a lot of Labour seats going to Reform, but if you look at the majority of councils this time around I'm not sure they will tell us much about Labour at all.

Doncaster will be one which is likely a Labour/Reform battle, but for most of these councils, Labour has virtually no seats.

Reform are certainly likely to be seen as "winners", but if that strong message is that 75% of the electorate didn't vote for them, then I'd hope that politics isn't dragged in their direction (I realise you probably feel differently).



Oldham and Royton for a start

 
Cannot disagree, its a bit like 66% or so of the population not voting for Labour last time and them ending up with a huge unchallengeable majority in Parliament. It is not right be that for Labour, Tories or even Reform which is where I think your point kicks in.

Not quite what I meant. I was suggesting that I don't think it makes sense for the other parties to go chasing 20-25% of the vote - particularly when that vote is itself a very mixed (and contradictory) coalition when it comes to economic issues.

Labour succeeded at the last election by targeting the centre, and doing so in a way that lost votes in safe seats, but added votes in marginals. It was also deliberately appealing to Lib Dem voters, so that they were able to push the Tory vote down in areas where Labour couldn't win. I don't think it's possible for any party to genuinely target the Reform vote, without losing a large part of their current vote, but also without losing the potential to reach those voters in the centre.
 
Surely the real test is the Runcorn by election? I fully expected Labour to win but the size of the majority will be the story.
I respect and interested in your comment that you fully expect Labour to win.

What would your view be if Labour were to lose? I guess the size of the margin in either eventuality (Labour win or lose) would influence your outlook on the future prospects of the Country?
 
Surely the real test is the Runcorn by election? I fully expected Labour to win but the size of the majority will be the story.

At the moment Reform seem to be favourites with the bookies, so I wouldn't be surprised if Labour lost - particularly given the reason for the election.

I doubt there will be too much soul searching at this stage in the Parliament. Probably a bit of spin about 'special circumstances', and not taking the electorate for granted. If they're losing by-elections in safe seats to Reform in 2029, then that's the time to really worry.
 
I respect and interested in your comment that you fully expect Labour to win.

What would your view be if Labour were to lose? I guess the size of the margin in either eventuality (Labour win or lose) would influence your outlook on the future prospects of the Country?

It’s a Labour safe seat…if Labour lose it would be seismic, others will crunch the numbers but to lose a safe seat would have them being predicted out of office. Even if the get home by a few % it would probably translate to them not having a majority next election.

Thats bonkers when you consider the whopping majority they had less than a year ago.

Obviously a lot of variables at play and how Reform poll will be interesting.
 
It’s a Labour safe seat…if Labour lose it would be seismic, others will crunch the numbers but to lose a safe seat would have them being predicted out of office. Even if the get home by a few % it would probably translate to them not having a majority next election.

Thats bonkers when you consider the whopping majority they had less than a year ago.

Obviously a lot of variables at play and how Reform poll will be interesting.
The majority is a castle built on sand. It was never a vote 'for' labour, just an utter rejection of the Tories.
 
At the moment Reform seem to be favourites with the bookies, so I wouldn't be surprised if Labour lost - particularly given the reason for the election.

I doubt there will be too much soul searching at this stage in the Parliament. Probably a bit of spin about 'special circumstances', and not taking the electorate for granted. If they're losing by-elections in safe seats to Reform in 2029, then that's the time to really worry.

I’d be genuinely shocked if Reform won. They’ll have a problem with converting those who poll as voting for reform in to actual votes at the ballot box. They are perhaps a bit politically disenfranchised so not nailed on to turn up at the booth. My prediction is something like 34% Labour, 31% reform.

It’s not rocket science to expect reform to do better here compared to their GE showing. If Labour do end up polling significantly less than they did in last years GE and reform polling significantly better then understanding the causes of that will be interesting. Did Labour lose votes to reform? Did reform get votes from the tories? Did reform mobilise new voters? Did labour voters stay at home? Etc etc.

I’m of the opinion that Reform have a similar problem to Labour under Corbyn in that they have a ceiling to how “popular” they can be with their policies and message. The causes of this result might challenge that opinion.

I don’t disagree that whatever the result Labour have plenty of time to turn it around - let’s face if they’ve been their own worst enemies.
 

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