The Scottish Politics thread

[Saddleworth2]

Is that really all you took from that to focus on? I was talking specifically about reginal votes, and said so, because are the ones often getting ignored.

Either way, I have said I don't believe there is enough of a real appetite for independence. Not based on the numbers, which I maintain aren't a meaningful gage. Purely based on my own experience and observation.

I hope you are wrong but time will tell if we ever do get a say.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Its been coming a long while and I do feel like the boiled frog that has woken up just at the point where the temperature gets lethal.

Now Starmer says he has no interest in rejoining even the single market I completely despair of any leader of the mainstream putting the needs of the country before the ambition of their party. And to tell us we needed to recruit more home grown doctors or nurses, well.....

I genuinely think that the leap overboard is less scary than the status quo. The biggest risk is the competence of the SNP to deliver this. As long as they can surround themselves with the right experts (financial and planning) they should make a fist of it. There will undoubtedly be bumps in the road but bloody hell we are getting very used to them being imposed on us. Once independent, the SNP will need to take their chances with the other parties that want to make a contribution.

I want us to be a friendly, open country, part of the EU with a set of values that reward hard work and wealth creation but at the same time look after those that need help. I want us to open our borders to migrants so they can make a contribution to our economy. I want us to continue to lead Europe in the development of green energy and not see the benefits of that pissed against the wall like our oil was. I think its possible if we are determined enough to make the leap.

I think Starmer is playing quite a shrewd game. The Tories want nothing more than to make the next GE about immigration and brexit - painting labour as weak on both and doing what they did last time in terms of populist/ reactionary vote. The truth is that whatever the rhetoric any govt has its hands tied on immigration by international law, and I suspect whatever shade of govt we have we'll end up edging incrementally closer to rejoining the EU or elements of it over the next decade. If starmer were to say this though it would be just the red meat that the Tories are looking to throw to the baying mob.

 

[Coatigan]

If we look at total votes cast in both regional and constituency for SNP, SLP and Greens we get 2,686,012

If we look at the same for “others” total votes cast 2,736,455.

Again, to be clear, I think it is meaningless, but since you keep obsessing over the numbers, the three Unionist pary votes add up to 2,624,835. That's 61k less than the 3 independence wielding parties.

Can't really just group all others as unionist, that includes extreme socialists, mad loony parties, protest votes and all sorts. The premise is the unionist vote is split 3 ways and thats why the independence parties have a majority. That is not the case.

We both seem to agree however, it isn't a proper arguement either way, as it isn't a single issue vote.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I think Starmer is playing quite a shrewd game. The Tories want nothing more than to make the next GE about immigration and brexit - painting labour as weak on both and doing what they did last time in terms of populist/ reactionary vote. The truth is that whatever the rhetoric any govt has its hands tied on immigration by international law, and I suspect whatever shade of govt we have we'll end up edging incrementally closer to rejoining the EU or elements of it over the next decade. If starmer were to say this though it would be just the red meat that the Tories are looking to throw to the baying mob.

yes I get that is the game he may be playing. Its the political culture of red meat and baying mob that Starmer is pandering to that I have an (probably unrealistic) issue with. I was relatively warm to him until his recent tour to Scotland where he did more than a little damage to his and his party's credibility

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

yes I get that is the game he may be playing. Its the political culture of red meat and baying mob that Starmer is pandering to that I have an (probably unrealistic) issue with. I was relatively warm to him until his recent tour to Scotland where he did more than a little damage to his and his party's credibility

Don't get me wrong, I think Starmer is a center-right sham of a labour leader, but I'd cheerfully take that over another five years of the current idiots.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Don't get me wrong, I think Starmer is a center-right sham of a labour leader, but I'd cheerfully take that over another five years of the current idiots.

yeah probably but its like choosing between the rags and the dippers.

 

[metalblue]

Interesting question. Total hypothetical, but genuinely have to think about that.

Given I don't want another independence referendum (while I do recognise the situation and mandate for one), should really be 2. But not sure I would trust it enough, or labour enough. Plus might be beyond salvaging.

Not convinced either way, and too much of a hypothetical to really put thought into.

But kudos on the question, I mean it.

edit, what about you?

It’s a genuinely tricky one. I was sort of led to the question by some of the points @Metal Biker was making around SNP could influence Westminster’s decision on offering an independence referendum.

I’d have quite a lot of respect for Sturgeon’s brand of politics if she said “we would ask for a second Brexit referendum and if that didn’t result in UK rejoining then we would ask for a second independence referendum”. She’d give the UK a chance to reflect and heal - even if the result remained the same. It could potentially be seen as a defacto vote by rest of UK on Scotland remaining and I’m sure the ERG would gnarl their teeth and accuse the SNP of making the vote about Scotland not the EU as they know they would probably lose such a vote.

So my answer would be 2 and then 1 if 2 was not overturned. Sturgeon is a very shrewd politician, let’s face it not matter what the outcome of the court decision was yesterday she couldn’t really lose.

 

[Gabriel]

 

[Saddleworth2]

It’s a genuinely tricky one. I was sort of led to the question by some of the points @Metal Biker was making around SNP could influence Westminster’s decision on offering an independence referendum.

I’d have quite a lot of respect for Sturgeon’s brand of politics if she said “we would ask for a second Brexit referendum and if that didn’t result in UK rejoining then we would ask for a second independence referendum”. She’d give the UK a chance to reflect and heal - even if the result remained the same. It could potentially be seen as a defacto vote by rest of UK on Scotland remaining and I’m sure the ERG would gnarl their teeth and accuse the SNP of making the vote about Scotland not the EU as they know they would probably lose such a vote.

So my answer would be 2 and then 1 if 2 was not overturned. Sturgeon is a very shrewd politician, let’s face it not matter what the outcome of the court decision was yesterday she couldn’t really lose.

Interesting scenario. Would love to see how the media covered it.

 

[Coatigan]

I hope you are wrong but time will tell if we ever do get a say.

Think what may well swing it is those voting out of defeatism and despair at the situation and where it is going.

Which, if it comes to pass, what a sad contrast to 2014 that at least had some possibly misplaced crazy hopefulness and flung optimism to it. Right or wrong (probably more wrong than right) there was at least a high level of positivity.

Now, there is a mood of cold hard realisation, will be a damn hard salvage what you can, but the alternative could be even bleaker. Thanks Brexit.

If only we could have forseen it coming in back then. Oh wait, we totally could have, it was already on the agenda, we just chose not to. I know I did.

That's the thing people will point to, for anyone voting on more emotional than logical grounds, is it worth the risk, etc. And they'd have a point. But who really wants to be looking back in 8-10 years again and thinking, if only we could have forseen it. Twice!