The Title Race 2022/23

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waspish said:
18 wins 3 draws 3 losses will have us on 88 points which will be enough
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Actually 89 but I am sure 85 points will be enough whoever that might be.

Liverpool are the only side capable of a major run of wins and they have 22 points from 14 games meaning they need 63 points from their remaining 24 games to reach that target highly unlikely.

that leaves Arsenal , Tottenham and Newcastle again highly unlikely with Arsenal best placed to reach 85 points of those three needing 48 points from their remaining 24 games.
 
Xhavenjoe said:
I would think it would be very difficult to catch Arsenal if we don't take points off them and I think it needs to be all 6.
We can't be reliant on other teams taking points off them as only one team has beaten them this season and that wasn't a true reflection of that game.
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Your presuming Arsenal will win every game they ain’t
 
Xhavenjoe said:
I would think it would be very difficult to catch Arsenal if we don't take points off them and I think it needs to be all 6.
We can't be reliant on other teams taking points off them as only one team has beaten them this season and that wasn't a true reflection of that game.
Click to expand...

You presuppose that Arsenal will continue to win at the rate from their first 14 games, and that's unlikely to happen.

Take the Centurions. City 17/18 dropped only 2 pts in the first 20 games or so, and then dropped 12 (!) points in the 2nd half of the season. I very much doubt Arsenal can go above 90 pts, or even 85 pts. It's not impossible, but it's not likely. If we win 88 pts, we are champions, even if we don't win vs Arsenal. I'd put money on that if I could.

Arsenal are not to be underestimated, but all of their attacking players and CBs have been available so far, and decisions have gone their way. That's likely to change at some point.
 
Xhavenjoe said:
I would think it would be very difficult to catch Arsenal if we don't take points off them and I think it needs to be all 6.
We can't be reliant on other teams taking points off them as only one team has beaten them this season and that wasn't a true reflection of that game.
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I'd settle for a draw and a win against them. But all it takes is one draw in a weekend where we win and it's squeaky, squeaky bum time for them again. They will drop points again, probably quite a few times, so the only question is if we can take advantage. If they win every game left to play then they'll be very worthy champions and smash every record we've set.
 
ken tali said:
And neither are City , we can´t afford to loose against Arsenal.
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We can, IF we win 88 pts anyway. Even if Arsenal win both games vs us, they ain't going above 87 pts. They are good. They aren't City or Liverpool (from recent seasons) good.
 
Xhavenjoe said:
I would think it would be very difficult to catch Arsenal if we don't take points off them and I think it needs to be all 6.
We can't be reliant on other teams taking points off them as only one team has beaten them this season and that wasn't a true reflection of that game.
Click to expand...
Yup with Arsenal being so strong we'll probably need to beat them twice

Suspect we'll also need to win 7 of the 8 fixtures: Spurs twice, Chelsea twice, Liverpool and Newcastle at home and rags and Brighton away. The pessimist in me believes It's already looking a tough ask.
So we'll need to win 9 (maybe 8 and a draw) of 10 matches versus the top teams in league with two of those being against Arsenal. All this with a tired and depleted squad after the World Cup when most of our direct competitors have had majority of their squads enjoying a winter break.

Arsenal have just came through two tough fixtures in Chelse and Wolves away, have no Champions league and are out of cup, I suspect most of us expected them to drop point in last two fixtures but again they never.

They have a tough block of 4 matches from 31st December to 21st January, if they win 2 and draw 1 [7] of those and then pick up wins in their other expected win matches (27 points), they will be on 71 points after 27 matches.
It looks like we could be playing Liverpool at home at start of April 12 points behind Arsenal by then

Arsenal next 14 fixtures

14-11-2022 15-52-50.png

City next 14 fixtures
Turn of the year we play Leeds, Chelsea, Rags and Spurs away
I think it's already looking a very big ask unfortunately :(
14-11-2022 15-54-48.png

Call me a flapper and a pessimist but this doesn't look unrealistic to me
 
waspish said:
Your presuming Arsenal will win every game they ain’t
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No I'm not.
The poster said this
"18 wins 3 draws 3 losses will have us on 88 points which will be enough"
That assumes we will drop 15 more points.
This also means Arsenal dropping at least 20 points.
I can't see that at the moment.
 
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