The Title Race 2022/23

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MadchesterCity said:
Yup with Arsenal being so strong we'll probably need to beat them twice

Suspect we'll also need to win 7 of the 8 fixtures: Spurs twice, Chelsea twice, Liverpool and Newcastle at home and rags and Brighton away. The pessimist in me believes It's already looking a tough ask.
So we'll need to win 9 (maybe 8 and a draw) of 10 matches versus the top teams in league with two of those being against Arsenal. All this with a tired and depleted squad after the World Cup when most of our direct competitors have had majority of their squads enjoying a winter break.

Arsenal have just came through two tough fixtures in Chelse and Wolves away, have no Champions league and are out of cup, I suspect most of us expected them to drop point in last two fixtures but again they never.

They have a tough block of 4 matches from 31st December to 21st January, if they win 2 and draw 1 [7] of those and then pick up wins in their other expected win matches (27 points), they will be on 71 points after 27 matches.
It looks like we could be playing Liverpool at home at start of April 12 points behind Arsenal by then

Arsenal next 14 fixtures

View attachment 60926

City next 14 fixtures
Turn of the year we play Leeds, Chelsea, Rags and Spurs away
I think it's already looking a very big ask unfortunately :(
View attachment 60927

Call me a flapper and a pessimist but this doesn't look unrealistic to me
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They're just predicitions, though. We know from seasons with Liverpool that you can look down a page and predict wins for them, but that isn't how it plays out.
 
MadchesterCity said:
True, I hope you're right
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I just wouldn't drive yourself too crazy by looking down fixture lists and imagining all the ways we will slip up and Arsenal won't. The year we chased down Liverpool's 6 point lead we beat them at home, and they had a couple of back to back draws and that's all it takes. If it was easy to say when we'd lose and they'll win and make a lot more of the £10 I bet every game back!
 
Cobwebcat said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
Click to expand...
They have predicted Arsenal to finish on 81 points yet Arsenal already have 37 points after 14 games.
Currently playing at 2.65 points per match

So with 24 games to go they expect Arsenal to get 44 points
Dropping to 1.83 points per match. Form for under 70 points a season

Not sure on the sums there, i'll be amazed if Arsenal finish on as low as 81 points

I think far too many people aren't taking Arsenal serious enough
 
Cobwebcat said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
Click to expand...

538 are more reliable than most opinions because their algorithms rely on numbers about performances over a significant period and avoid human biases, e.g. the recency bias. They have weakneses, of course, but fewer weaknesses than the judgments of the average fan or pundit.

If you ask City fans, many will tell you that Arsenal have been better than City. Truth is both teams have performed at a similar level both in attack and defence. People judge the performances of both teams against different expectations and backgrounds. They expect more from City, a lot more in some games, and are therefore more critical of City. In contrast, Arsenal exceed the expectations and thus seem to perform better than City, but this is largely an illusion due to the application of different standards. According to Understat, both teams have been roughly at the same level, and, IMO, that's close to the truth.
 
MadchesterCity said:
They have predicted Arsenal to finish on 81 points yet Arsenal already have 37 points after 14 games.
Currently playing at 2.65 points per match

So with 24 games to go they expect Arsenal to get 44 points
Dropping to 1.83 points per match. Form for under 70 points a season

Not sure on the sums there, i'll be amazed if Arsenal finish on as low as 81 points

I think far too many people aren't taking Arsenal serious enough
Click to expand...

It’s basically because although they believe Arsenal are a good team (6th in the World even) they believe they have been lucky in that their results have been better than their performances merit and that, while they have points in the bag, their luck (on average) won’t continue….while we are getting the points our play merits.

They are certainly taking Arsenal seriously thinking they are only three points from winning it.

We will see. With a WC in the middle of the season anything could happen.
 
Brightwell Bros. said:
I just wouldn't drive yourself too crazy by looking down fixture lists and imagining all the ways we will slip up and Arsenal won't. The year we chased down Liverpool's 6 point lead we beat them at home, and they had a couple of back to back draws and that's all it takes. If it was easy to say when we'd lose and they'll win and make a lot more of the £10 I bet every game back!
Click to expand...

Liverpool were 10 points ahead before our game at Southampton, then 4 pts after our 2:1 win.

In reality, a 5 pts lead isn't big. The question is whether our players will be fit and hungry after the WC. A 3rd consecutive league title will be great, but will the players be up for it? That's the question.
 
Last edited:
Not really sure to be honest.
In previous campaigns we've nearly always rotated around this period, and dropped silly points, before kicking-on during the middle part of the season.
However, this feels more like one of those seasons where we don't kick-on and continue to drop silly points.

We might need to take at least 4 points off Arsenal, but a lot will depend on their attitude and resilience when things don't go as planned.
Also, I wouldn't rule out Tottenham, as they appear to be the fittest team in the Premier League.
 
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