The Title Race 2022/23

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Going back to a point made earlier, it's a funny old game. Look at our game against Spurs, or Villa last season, or the infamous QPR game. In all those games pretty much 50% way through we were dead and buried and yet as soon as we got some momentum the pendulum swung right round. We are 50% through the league, at the moment Arsenal are playing REALLY WELL and are getting the rub of the green, everything is going there way, no bad patch yet. However, anything can happen in the next 50%, we will almost definitely get stronger as we always do the longer the season goes, they are likely to have some tricky periods and may not have the experience to deal with it. Literally anything can happen. As Pep said, keep the pressure on our players, support them and never give up. If there is a team that can reel in the gooners it's most definitely us, regardless of what has gone before in this season

Cheers. The league isn't over by a long shot - hope you're right!

 

[alexmcity]

Who wins the league then? City 1st (I suppose) and Arsenal with only 88? If that's your conviction then you should absolutely bet money as you'll stand to make a killing (but please don't bet if you cannot afford it or if you have a betting problem).

In contrast to you, I'm not *sure* what's going to happen. You are *sure* that Arsenal will win the title with 90+ pts, and you think that they are going to win it with 97+ pts. If you really are sure, bet on it.

Football is a game in which even the Centurions could lose from a league one team. Some things are more likely than other things, but I'm not *sure* about what's going to happen. But I think that Arsenal won't win 95+ pts, and I think that you and all those saying Arsenal will win 90+ pts are wrong. Let's see what happens.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

In contrast to you, I'm not *sure* what's going to happen. You are *sure* that Arsenal will win the tile with 90+ pts, and you think that they are going to win it with 97+ pts. If you really are sure, bet on it.

Football is a game in which even the Centurions could lose from a league one team. Some things are more likely than other things, but I'm not *sure* about what's going to happen. But I think that Arsenal won't win 95+ pts, and I think that you and all those saying Arsenal will win 90+ pts are wrong. Let's see what happens.

Review your posts. You're "sure" that Arsenal is capped at 88 and isn't going to win the league.

Anyhow, I'm out - I've made my prediction - 95+ points for Arsenal and league winners. You too have made yours -- 88- for Arsenal and not league winners. Come back here at the end of the league. Maybe I'm wrong as anything is possible - but I think not.

 

[supercity88]

I'll answer your rhetorical question - fuck no, we should not, and we will not. Nonetheless, the league has sailed - to salvage the league we will need to improve our form greatly and Arsenal will need to suffer a setback. We must keep trying as this is possible - but I think unlikely.

How has the league sailed?! We're 5pts off top having played a game more, but play Arsenal twice?! We've won the last 10 league meetings with them as well. I don't get how you can say that we will not win the league, but then want the team to fight for it still. Belief is everything, and that starts with the fans. As soon as we got 1 back against Villa the stadium knew we could win that game and the players fed off it.

 

[alexmcity]

Review your posts. You're "sure" that Arsenal is capped at 88 and isn't going to win the league.

Anyhow, I'm out - I've made my prediction - 95+ points for Arsenal and league winners. You too have made yours -- 88- for Arsenal and not league winners. Come back here at the end of the league. Maybe I'm wrong as anything is possible - but I think not.

I'm confident Arsenal won't win 90 pts, but I'm not *sure* in the sense that it's virtually guaranteed to happen. If I understand you correctly, you think it's almost guaranteed that Arsenal will win the title with 90+ pts.

To put it differently, I think that Arsenal have, say, only 35% chance to amass 90+ pts, whereas you think they have at least, say, 85% chance to do it.

Time will tell.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I'm confident Arsenal won't win 90 pts, but I'm not *sure* in the sense that it's virtually guaranteed to happen. If I understand you correctly, you think it's almost guaranteed that Arsenal will win the title with 90+ pts.

To put it differently, I think that Arsenal have, say, only 35% chance to amass 90+ pts, whereas you think they have at least, say, 85% chance to do it.

Time will tell.

Cheers - indeed time will tell. Let's see at the end of the season :-)

 

[KingGeorge]

I'll answer your rhetorical question - fuck no, we should not, and we will not. Nonetheless, the league has sailed - to salvage the league we will need to improve our form greatly and Arsenal will need to suffer a setback. We must keep trying as this is possible - but I think unlikely.

Fair enough...I would Like to see this team work to get itself in top form and try to chase Arsenal down. If we can't chase Arsenal down at least we should be in great position to win the Champions league if we are in top form.

 

[Manchester_lalala]

They have difficult fixtures in April and May:

Liverpool (a)
West Ham (a)
City (a)
Chelsea (h)
Newcastle (a)
Brighton (h)

It's good they don't play Chelsea and Liverpool now when they are very average. In 3 months both teams may be better.

Also, it's not a given that they will maintain form. It's difficult to stay in top form from January to May. Pressure, fatigue, injuries, inexperience, loss of form may play a role.

Might be wrong, but I think if we are in the title race come April, we are going to win. Time will tell.

I keep saying April is the key month. If we’re not more than six points behind by then we’ve got a chance.

 

[Mancini’s Pastilles]

Very much all or nothing on here today!

We play them twice and then the gaps 2pts assuming they win their game in hand. Draw one whilst we win and it comes down to GD. All is still to play for.

The lack of confidence is more to do with our form than theirs. We obviously need to see a stark improvement if we're going to challenge.

Ultimately, with the points we've dropped in games we'd expect to win, we do need to beat them - ideally twice. Their current trajectory is 100pts whilst ours is 90. But assume we win both games, their PPG would take them to 90 and ours to 88. It's still on blues!

You seriously think we're going to beat arsenal twice? And be pretty much faultless for rest of season?

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

I think Arsenal wind up with 102 points. Only hiccup for them will be loss to City at the Etihad and a tie against City at the Emirates.

You have no idea how badly the PL wants to erase 100 points season as the best ever.

It is already rigged as you saw no pen vs Casemiro in the rags game, no offside vs rags, no pen vs Wolves for foul on Grealish.

Last year they so badly wanted to give it to the dippers after Rodri vs Everton. When that failed they hired Howard Webb to help rig it.

In effect they are copying Uefa, all close calls go against us and is designed to make Pep walk away!

As crazy as it sounds, just try explaining that from a neutral point of view.

Ignore your instincts at your own peril.

 

[citymad]

I think Arsenal wind up with 102 points. Only hiccup for them will be loss to City at the Etihad and a tie against City at the Emirates.

You have no idea how badly the PL wants to erase 100 points season as the best ever.

It is already rigged as you saw no pen vs Casemiro in the rags game, no offside vs rags, no pen vs Wolves for foul on Grealish.

Last year they so badly wanted to give it to the dippers after Rodri vs Everton. When that failed they hired Howard Webb to help rig it.

In effect they are copying Uefa, all close calls go against us and is designed to make Pep walk away!

As crazy as it sounds, just try explaining that from a neutral point of view.

Ignore your instincts at your own peril.

 

[Coatigan]

To put it differently, I think that Arsenal have, say, only 35% chance to amass 90+ pts, whereas you think they have at least, say, 85% chance to do it.

Based on what?

 

[waspish]

88 pts.

90

 

[supercity88]

You seriously think we're going to beat arsenal twice? And be pretty much faultless for rest of season?

Well we've beaten them 10 times in a row in the league so why wouldn't we beat them home and away? We don't have to be faultless, because they'll drop points too. We've had a poor first half of the season in all honesty, but we've got a track record of putting a run together so I have to believe we can do it again. Arsenal have set a crazy pace, but I'd be astounded if they carried that through to the end of the season. They're on for 100pts. There's no way they're good enough to keep winning and amassing points at their current rate. They might not fall off a cliff, but even a couple of losses here and there, as well as losing to us and high 80s is their trajectory. If we can get 90pts I think we'll win the league.

 

[alexmcity]

Based on what?

It's difficult to maintain form over a season, inexperience (including the manager, not a proven winner like Klopp), lack of squad depth, luck, etc. They have won almost every game they have dominated, that's being a bit lucky, given the nature of football. It's likely they will have games in which they hit the post 2-3 times and draw (like us at Southampton last season).

Every team in PL history that won 48+ pts after 19 games did worse in the 2nd half of the season, including the very best versions of City, Liverpool and United. It's not a coincidence. The Centurions dropped only 2 pts in the 1st half of the season and 12 pts in the 2nd half. Liverpool dropped only 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20 and 13 pts in the last 10 games, United dropped 8 pts in 3 of the final 5 games in 11/12.

Plus, as good as Ramsdale, Saliba, Saka and Martinelli have been, they ain't prime Alisson, VVD, Mane and Salah, and it will show.

Plus, teams will adjust their tactics against Arsenal. They haven't treated them sufficiently seriously at times and have played more attacking formations than against City. Plus some decsions will go against them. They were a bit lucky vs Liverpool, at 1:1 Liverpool could/should have been awarded a pen, etc.

There are many reasons to think Arsenal won't find it easy over the next 19 games. Several good teams lost form in the 2nd half of a season, not only Newcastle (12 pts clear in 95/96) but even experienced winners like Ferguson's United (97/98 and 11/12).

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think Arsenal don't have the quality and depth to win 90+ pts. Might be wrong, time will tell, etc.

 

[Coatigan]

It's difficult to maintain form over a season, inexperience (including the manager, not a proven winner like Klopp), lack of squad depth, luck, etc. They have won almost every game they have dominated, that's being a bit lucky, given the nature of football. It's likely they will have games in which they hit the post 2-3 times and draw (like us at Southampton last season).

Every team in PL history that won 48+ pts after 19 games did worse in the 2nd half of the season, including the very best versions of City, Liverpool and United. It's not a coincidence. The Centurions dropped only 2 pts in the 1st half of the season and 12 pts in the 2nd half. Liverpool dropped only 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20 and 13 pts in the last 10 games, United dropped 8 pts in 3 of the final 5 games in 11/12.

Plus, as good as Ramsdale, Saliba, Saka and Martinelli have been, they ain't prime Alisson, VVD, Mane and Salah, and it will show.

Plus, teams will adjust their tactics against Arsenal. They haven't treated them sufficiently seriously at times and have played more attacking formations than against City. Plus some decsions will go against them. They were a bit lucky vs Liverpool, at 1:1 Liverpool could/should have been awarded a pen, etc.

There are many reasons to think Arsenal won't find it easy over the next 19 games. Several good teams lost form in the 2nd half of a season, not only Newcastle (12 pts clear in 95/96) but even experienced winners like Ferguson's United (97/98 and 11/12).

Nothing is guaranteed, but I think Arsenal don't have the quality and depth to win 90+ pts. Might be wrong, time will tell, etc.

So, based on nothing at all, got it.

So you think there is a 65% certainty they will drop more than 18 points the second half of the season. Ok.

 

[alexmcity]

So, based on nothing at all, got it.

Particularly the second part of your claim then, which isn't even consistent with your own logic there.

What would you call *something* when making a guess about the title race? Experience, squad depth, difficulty to maintain a form over a season count for *nothing at all*?

Which part doesn't fit my logic?

 

[Manchester_lalala]

Well we've beaten them 10 times in a row in the league so why wouldn't we beat them home and away? We don't have to be faultless, because they'll drop points too. We've had a poor first half of the season in all honesty, but we've got a track record of putting a run together so I have to believe we can do it again. Arsenal have set a crazy pace, but I'd be astounded if they carried that through to the end of the season. They're on for 100pts. There's no way they're good enough to keep winning and amassing points at their current rate. They might not fall off a cliff, but even a couple of losses here and there, as well as losing to us and high 80s is their trajectory. If we can get 90pts I think we'll win the league.

I keep seeing “they aren’t good enough” despite being the best team in the league by quite a distance so far.

 

[alexmcity]

I keep seeing “they aren’t good enough” despite being the best team in the league by quite a distance so far.

They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2025/2026 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2025/2026 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
1	Arsenal	19	16	2	1	45	16	50	40.57-4.43	16.94+0.94	41.56-8.44
2	Manchester City	20	14	3	3	53	20	45	45.39-7.61	17.95-2.05	44.63-0.37

In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.

 

[shemnel]

88 pts.

You're going for 19 pts dropped in 19 games? I.e. P19 W12 D2 L5? Something like that?