Yes, it is called being complacent. Or a happy flower.
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Yes, it is called being complacent. Or a happy flower.
Yes, claiming a 35% chance of them not dropping 18+ points based on Arteta isn't Klopp, it is hard to maintain form, etc is basing it on nothing.
Re the second bit, in fairness I misread what you meant and edited mine, but you seem to have started the response before I did.
the blue panther
Well-Known Member
Liverpool had 51 points at this stage, a point more than Arsenal have now, according to radio this morning, but City overhauled them. So, chins up; plenty to play for.
People take form over 19 games a bit too seriously. Big changes in form can easily happen. Arsenal dropped 18 pts in the last 13 games last season. They are much better this season, but we'll see for how long.
1-2 injuries at CB and CM may derail their season. They've fielded the likes of Saliba, Gabriel, Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli almost every game so far. Injuries to 2-3 of those and they will struggle big time. And injuries can happen at any moment.
If they go over 90 pts, they'll deserve the title, unless City are out of this world in the next 18 games.
You take their form over the first 19 games as strongly predictive of their form over the next 19 games, and I don't, for I think that form can change dramatically, and it has happened to more experienced teams than them. You don't agree, that's fine. Let's see what happens.
If we beat them home and away then the gap is 2 points, which is nothing.
They are playing well and are deservedly top but a long way to go and we will both drop points. As someone else had said, if it was the other way around we wouldn’t think it over.
A pity it wasn’t a draw yesterday. Although a win for the rags would certainly have helped us in one sense, it would have definitely been a mixed blessing.
On balance I’d rather have the rags back in their box and hope we can do it on our own than have a three horse race, with the risk that they won it.
Does anyone have the same view?
They are playing well and are deservedly top but a long way to go and we will both drop points. As someone else had said, if it was the other way around we wouldn’t think it over.
A pity it wasn’t a draw yesterday. Although a win for the rags would certainly have helped us in one sense, it would have definitely been a mixed blessing.
On balance I’d rather have the rags back in their box and hope we can do it on our own than have a three horse race, with the risk that they won it.
Does anyone have the same view?
Ok, just wondered.
LongsightM13
Well-Known Member
No wonder the Vietnamese kicked America’s ass
No, I too expect them to drop points, more than they have already. I don't expect them to get 100 points thats for sure. Just not as many as you are going for.
Either way, to argue they only have a 35% chance of getting 90 points is just daft mate.
If you think Arteta is already about as good as Pep and Klopp, what do you think, how many Arsenal players would start for those City and Liverpool teams that won 95+ pts?
Maybe Saliba over Matip and Otamendi (Kompany, Stones?). Saka over Sterling? Odegaard over some Liverpool midfielder? That's it. They aren't close in terms of first team and squad as yet. They have excellent young players who may reach world-class level, but they aren't world-class now.
In contrast to City and Liverpool, Arsenal are not in the CL and will probably play mostly squad players in the EL. This may help them in the league, but by how much remains to be seen.
Maybe Saliba over Matip and Otamendi (Kompany, Stones?). Saka over Sterling? Odegaard over some Liverpool midfielder? That's it. They aren't close in terms of first team and squad as yet. They have excellent young players who may reach world-class level, but they aren't world-class now.
In contrast to City and Liverpool, Arsenal are not in the CL and will probably play mostly squad players in the EL. This may help them in the league, but by how much remains to be seen.
Manchester_lalala
Well-Known Member
I couldn’t give a shit about xG, I rate teams by their performances and not stats. They’ve been the best team and it’s not even close.They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.
EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2025/2026 season | Understat.com
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2025/2026 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.understat.com
№ Team M W D L G GA PTS xG xGA xPTS 1 Arsenal 19 16 2 1 45 16 50 40.57-4.43 16.94+0.94 41.56-8.44 2 Manchester City 20 14 3 3 53 20 45 45.39-7.61 17.95-2.05 44.63-0.37
In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.
Arsenal are playing fantastic at the moment but it is a long old season. They are bound to have a bad run of form at some point, or lose key players to injuries, or get robbed by VAR or whatever. Just as confident this season, as that time we were undoubtedly going to chase down Leicester
I noticed that. The problem is that nearly all that overperformance happened in the first 10 games. Since then they've been getting the points their play deserves.They're the best team by 5-8 pts distance, but not in terms of created and conceded chances.
EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2025/2026 season | Understat.com
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2025/2026 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
№ Team M W D L G GA PTS xG xGA xPTS 1 Arsenal 19 16 2 1 45 16 50 40.57-4.43 16.94+0.94 41.56-8.44 2 Manchester City 20 14 3 3 53 20 45 45.39-7.61 17.95-2.05 44.63-0.37
In other words, they have outperformed their xG by quite a distance. Both teams have been roughly equal in terms of created and conceded chances, with City being slightly better in attack and slightly worse in defence.
Possibly that early luck gave them the confidence that they need to go out and expect to win nearly every game.
It looks deceptively easy as they "only" need 40 more points, having got 50 from the first half of the season.
However, 40 pts is 2.1 pts a game, and they haven't hit that in any of the last 15 seasons. Wenger didn't manage it in his last ten seasons at the club.
50 is an amazing achievement at this stage, but it's still a long way from being a given that they'll carry that kind of form for anything like a whole season.
Yes Wenger is entirely relevant to this season. Ffs.
Mariosfireworks
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The last 15 seasons mean nothing, what they did under wenger means nothing, its this season that matters, and they look very good, and all their players look up for it, we have improved the last 2 games but still don't look like we used to, maybe we are changing our play to work with haaland and maybe next season it will a click into place
The same people have been underestimating this arsenal side all season, and every passing game makes them look more and more fucking stupid. Where's the guy that predicted we'll be 10 points clear by the time we play them.
They are the real deal. So are we, when on form. It won't be easy, and if it gets to a meaningful chance, it will be tight. And that's the best way. All this talk of they wont get 90pts, who the fuck says we will get more than 90. With the same logic of second half drop-off and all that xG crap. They could win it with 85pts, we they could miss out with 91. Who gives a shit, lets just win some fucking games in a row and see where things are.
Last season, people were taking tendencies from the first 19 games quite seriously. "But Liverpool have dropped 16 pts in the first 19 games, they can't compete for the title!" Turned out, it's more complicated than that. Now we have similar projections of form from the first half of the season to the 2nd half, but in the other direction: "Arsenal have dropped only 7 pts in 19 games, how can they drop 19 pts in the remaining games?? It's unlikely!" Well, time will tell.
Tolmie scores
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Games like Everton will be our doing. They lhave about 9 from 12 and we drew ar home!! Can't see Arsenal fking up.like that
wolviedinho
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Arsenal are an early version of city. Fuck em. Stole our ideas and got lucky on recruitment.
City B team is what they should be called. Pep trained Arteta too well. That was our only mistake.
Also, seems we have a few problem players in the squad. Cancelo looking out, Bernie moping about the place. New players trying to settle into a new system. Players coming back overweight not to mention burn out and it all makes sense now. Pep needs our backing now more than ever. Dealing with petulant players probably doing his head in.
City B team is what they should be called. Pep trained Arteta too well. That was our only mistake.
Also, seems we have a few problem players in the squad. Cancelo looking out, Bernie moping about the place. New players trying to settle into a new system. Players coming back overweight not to mention burn out and it all makes sense now. Pep needs our backing now more than ever. Dealing with petulant players probably doing his head in.
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