Have done a post like this before but will do another.
After 24 games in each season under Pep:
Season | Pos. | P | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | Final pos. | Final pts. |
16/17 | 3rd | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 29 | 49 | 3rd | 78 |
17/18 | 1st | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 70 | 18 | 65 | 1st | 100 |
18/19 | 2nd | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 63 | 19 | 56 | 1st | 98 |
19/20 | 2nd | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 27 | 51 | 2nd | 81 |
20/21 | 1st | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 56 | 1st | 86 |
21/22 | 1st | 24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 57 | 14 | 60 | 1st | 93 |
22/23 | 2nd | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 60 | 24 | 52 | ??? | ??? |
So, in terms of points per game.
16/17
After 24 games: 2.04
After 38 games: 2.08
17/18
After 24 games: 2.71
After 38 games: 2.63
18/19
After 24 games: 2.33
After 38 games: 2.58
19/20
After 24 games: 2.13
After 38 games: 2.13
20/21
After 24 games: 2.33
After 38 games: 2.26
21/22
After 24 games: 2.50
After 38 games: 2.45
22/23
After 24 games: 2.16
After 38 games?
To reach 90 points from our current position, City are going to have to drastically improve our PPG from by 0.21. Basically we need 38 points from a possible 42, which realistically is 13 wins from 14 games (or 12 wins and a couple of draws). Arsenal are currently running at 2.35 PPP - to reach 90 points from their current position, they only need to increase their PPG to 2.37. 36 points from a possible 45, which is roughly 12 wins from 15 games. United are getting giddy but they will need to win basically all of their remaining games to reach 90 points. Arsenal have a lot more breathing room and, as a result, United dropping points in even one game will rule them out almost completely. Only a massive Arsenal collapse will give United a chance of getting back in.
I think City are looking at about 80-85 points based on how previous seasons have turned out and how our PPG rate is working out so far. Whether that's enough to win the title depends on other teams. It'll definitely be enough for 3rd and most likely will be enough for 2nd. I really would like us to go all out for the FA Cup and Champions League. Finishing in the top 4 and having a good cup run would be superb season.