Brightwell Bros.
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They're just predicitions, though. We know from seasons with Liverpool that you can look down a page and predict wins for them, but that isn't how it plays out.
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MadchesterCity
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True, I hope you're right
Brightwell Bros.
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I just wouldn't drive yourself too crazy by looking down fixture lists and imagining all the ways we will slip up and Arsenal won't. The year we chased down Liverpool's 6 point lead we beat them at home, and they had a couple of back to back draws and that's all it takes. If it was easy to say when we'd lose and they'll win and make a lot more of the £10 I bet every game back!
Cobwebcat
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538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
MadchesterCity
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They have predicted Arsenal to finish on 81 points yet Arsenal already have 37 points after 14 games.ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
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538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
Currently playing at 2.65 points per match
So with 24 games to go they expect Arsenal to get 44 points
Dropping to 1.83 points per match. Form for under 70 points a season
Not sure on the sums there, i'll be amazed if Arsenal finish on as low as 81 points
I think far too many people aren't taking Arsenal serious enough
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538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
538 are more reliable than most opinions because their algorithms rely on numbers about performances over a significant period and avoid human biases, e.g. the recency bias. They have weakneses, of course, but fewer weaknesses than the judgments of the average fan or pundit.
If you ask City fans, many will tell you that Arsenal have been better than City. Truth is both teams have performed at a similar level both in attack and defence. People judge the performances of both teams against different expectations and backgrounds. They expect more from City, a lot more in some games, and are therefore more critical of City. In contrast, Arsenal exceed the expectations and thus seem to perform better than City, but this is largely an illusion due to the application of different standards. According to Understat, both teams have been roughly at the same level, and, IMO, that's close to the truth.
Cobwebcat
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It’s basically because although they believe Arsenal are a good team (6th in the World even) they believe they have been lucky in that their results have been better than their performances merit and that, while they have points in the bag, their luck (on average) won’t continue….while we are getting the points our play merits.
They are certainly taking Arsenal seriously thinking they are only three points from winning it.
We will see. With a WC in the middle of the season anything could happen.
Liverpool were 10 points ahead before our game at Southampton, then 4 pts after our 2:1 win.
In reality, a 5 pts lead isn't big. The question is whether our players will be fit and hungry after the WC. A 3rd consecutive league title will be great, but will the players be up for it? That's the question.
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Scaring Europe to Death
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Not really sure to be honest.
In previous campaigns we've nearly always rotated around this period, and dropped silly points, before kicking-on during the middle part of the season.
However, this feels more like one of those seasons where we don't kick-on and continue to drop silly points.
We might need to take at least 4 points off Arsenal, but a lot will depend on their attitude and resilience when things don't go as planned.
Also, I wouldn't rule out Tottenham, as they appear to be the fittest team in the Premier League.
In previous campaigns we've nearly always rotated around this period, and dropped silly points, before kicking-on during the middle part of the season.
However, this feels more like one of those seasons where we don't kick-on and continue to drop silly points.
We might need to take at least 4 points off Arsenal, but a lot will depend on their attitude and resilience when things don't go as planned.
Also, I wouldn't rule out Tottenham, as they appear to be the fittest team in the Premier League.
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538 see it as a two horse race with a 89% chance of City or Arse. 11% the rest combined.
The 'odds' dropped by 20% with just the brentford game. It literally means nothing, it can swing at any given point.
Cobwebcat
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I think that’s the point. If they stayed static then they would be strange Indeed. They’re supposed to move like that.
I get your point that they are volatile though. Take the starting position perhaps before a ball is kicked and see if you can beat the final table at the end. I can’t and it’s won me a few quid.
Im curious though….are you saying all prediction sites are meaningless or just 538? Do you have another site you prefer? Sure if you are expecting a prediction site to be 100% accurate you would have a long wait and will be continually disappointed. I don’t think anyone thinks they have the lottery numbers in advance.
Im not sure what you are expecting? 538 has been shown to beat most prediction sites most of the time. Clubelo comes second most of the time on average followed by ECI. Yes there really are sites that do monitor the accuracy of footy algorithms…they will go into overdrive for the World Cup.
All of them are prediction sites though not crystal balls. They will all beat the vast majority of people’s individual guesses on here or anywhere else. So unless we are saying this whole thread is meaningless (In which case just give it a swerve) why not see what they are saying? I quite like the thread…bit of fun no more.
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Champions Again Ole Ole
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After the break, Arsenal play Newcastle and United at home and Brighton and Spurs away in consecutive games. If they take 10 points from them 4 games, i'll start to worry a little.
In the last few games they play Liverpool Away, West Ham Away, Southampton Home, CIty Away, Chelsea Home, Newcastle Away in the space of 28 days. Add to that a couple of Europa League ties. I just don't think they have the squad to deal with that.
In the last few games they play Liverpool Away, West Ham Away, Southampton Home, CIty Away, Chelsea Home, Newcastle Away in the space of 28 days. Add to that a couple of Europa League ties. I just don't think they have the squad to deal with that.
I am saying they don't matter. And can't be used as a measure of a season. Winning and losing games can.
538 works as a formula, sure. So what. We still neec to win games, at least 2 or 3 more than Arsenal will manage as it stands.
Citizen in Pakistan
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The only silver lining from Brentford defeat is that city no they're up against a proper title challenger and can't afford to mess around any further, so post world cup, i expect city to up their game and give it all and when city gets in that mood they're hard to stop. I think 88 would be the golden number
tolmie's hairdoo
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I think you do City a massive disservice?
It's not a title race until games have real pressure around them, something Arsenal are yet to experience.
Completely different animal the closer something becomes.
Arsenal have done very well up to this point but they don't have the experience of a run-in, coupled with the weight of expectation a club like Arsenal has to a massive underdog like Leicester were.
If Arsenal finish top three, Arteta deserves huge credit, because I don't see them still in the mix by the time March comes around.
They will have something like 19 games in 46 days after the World Cup.
Brutal for a squad like ours, never mind Arsenal's.
Hayley Croppers chopper
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I liked this statement up to the last comment. When the scousers won it , absolutely nothing went against them. When we just pipped them to the title they were relentless in picking up points.
Like you said it is unlikely that Arsenal will do that but it is not impossible.
uwe rosler 28
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The big worry for me is we haven't looked like going on a long winning run like we have in previous seasons. Performances have been inconsistent and we far from look solid to easy at times to play through. Pep seems to be struggling to find the balance now we have Haaland we could be a few more points behind than we are.
Brightwell Bros.
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The problem with long winning runs is that they have to start, by definition, after a bad result.
richards30
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Pep needs to stop fucking around with the CB partnership?
We can't do without rotation, and Pep is a master of it going by our results over the last 5 years. Also, if you divide the squad between firm starters and bench warmers, squad harmony will suffer.
The fixture list after the WC will be brutal for all teams, and those which rotate the best will be the best. Old-school notions of (constantly playing) your best XI or best CB pair or best this and that should be retired nowadays. We have 17-18 high quality players and every one of them should feel part of the team and get opportunities to show his value to the team.
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