The Title Race 2022/23

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Being on course to X pts is just a way of speaking, it shouldn't be taken too literary. To say that Arsenal are on course to win X pts is to project tendencies from the first 17 games onto 38 games. And that's highly problematic. Getting 90 pts is anything but easy, even on the basis of 44 pts after the first 17 games. Remember, Arsenal have won 90 pts only once (2004), and the league was less competitive back then. Martinelli and Saka are top talents, but they ain't Henry. It's not impossible for Arsenal to get 90 or even 95 pts. But it's not as likely as it may seem after the first 17 games.

Just as City dropped 5 pts in 2 home games vs Brentford and Everton, so will Arsenal drop points unexpectedly. Again, they don't outperform City in terms of creating and conceding chances. Nobody expected Watford to twat Liverpool 3:0 after Liverpool dropped just 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20. They were on course to 110 pts back then. And then dropped 13 pts in the last 10 games. It's not like they didn't want to break City's record of 100 pts. Form comes and goes, often unexpectedly.
well said. and this arsenal is not close to the class of that liverpool side
 
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
 
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
If we are on 45pts after the next 3 matches, I will show my arse in Burtons window.
 
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
Only issue is this year we may still end up 2nd with 45points, not something we faced in past.
 
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
Just looking at your list there, I looked at it like this:

2021-22 — 47pts, got 46 further points in the second half of the season
2020–21 — 41pts, got 45 further points
2019-20 — 38pts, got 43 further points
2018-19 — 44pts, got 54 further points
2017-18 — 55pts, got 45 further points

Apart from 2018-19, we have had remarkably similar second halves of the season with 45, 43, 45 and 46 points in the final 19 games in four out of those five seasons.

Even if you add in the 54 from 2018-19, the average for all five second halves of the season is 46.6 under Pep.

If we get 46 points in the second half of this season, I think we’ll need to win our next three games as that will have us finish on 91 points.
 
It's very possible that after the derby, the rags are above us.
Now that's depressing.
That's the spirit, whilst our last 2 home games have been poor our away record has been pretty good just one defeat all season. Not saying the Rags game is going to be easy but I am quietly confident.
 
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That's the spirit, whilst our last 2 home games have been poor our away record has been pretty good just one defeat all season. Not saying the Rags game is going to be easy but I am quietly confident.
I think we will draw with them tbh
 
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