The Title Race 2022/23

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Arsenal have to play us twice, dippers at anfield, Newcastle away, spurs away
Not to mention united and Chelsea at home
It’s a long hard season
Not saying they can’t win it, but it certainly won’t be easy especially if they are in Europe as every game will be on Sunday after the rest have played
Or a red card against a lesser team
Or a few injuries
…….
 
alexmcity said:
Being on course to X pts is just a way of speaking, it shouldn't be taken too literary. To say that Arsenal are on course to win X pts is to project tendencies from the first 17 games onto 38 games. And that's highly problematic. Getting 90 pts is anything but easy, even on the basis of 44 pts after the first 17 games. Remember, Arsenal have won 90 pts only once (2004), and the league was less competitive back then. Martinelli and Saka are top talents, but they ain't Henry. It's not impossible for Arsenal to get 90 or even 95 pts. But it's not as likely as it may seem after the first 17 games.

Just as City dropped 5 pts in 2 home games vs Brentford and Everton, so will Arsenal drop points unexpectedly. Again, they don't outperform City in terms of creating and conceding chances. Nobody expected Watford to twat Liverpool 3:0 after Liverpool dropped just 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20. They were on course to 110 pts back then. And then dropped 13 pts in the last 10 games. It's not like they didn't want to break City's record of 100 pts. Form comes and goes, often unexpectedly.
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Agree with all that pal.

What I don't get is people claiming we will win the title because Arsenal haven't got close to 90 points before, so can't possibly do it now. Like that in itself will decide it for a start. They can. And they can win it too.

Of course, so can we. I don't really give a toss if they get 95 points or 75. As long as we get more than them, and anyone else.
 
Coatigan said:
Agree with all that pal.

What I don't get is people claiming we will win the title because Arsenal haven't got close to 90 points before, so can't possibly do it now. Like that in itself will decide it for a start. They can. And they can win it too.

Of course, so can we. I don't really give a toss if they get 95 points or 75. As long as we get more than them, and anyone else.
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I agree, the fact that Arsenal haven't won 90 pts since 2004 isn't of great predictive value. Liverpool hadn't won 90 pts over 38 games before Klopp either. The argument is a bit different, though: is there sufficient evidence that Arsenal have a truly great team capable of getting 90+ pts. Liverpool reached a CL final before having a 90 pts season. Regarding Arsenal, the first 17 games, and the performances in them, don't provide such evidence for me. They may or may not win 90+ pts. Personally, I think they won't get 90 pts. If we get 88 pts, and it's not enough, fair play to Arsenal. They'll deserve the title.
 
Gus Fring said:
I think people need realise Arsenal are here to stay much like Leicester were in their title winning season, everybody said the same thing oh they’ll lose 5 in a row soon or they’ll fall a cliff and they didn’t just like Arsenal won’t.
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When Leicester won the league, they did so with 81 points. They dropped points in 15 games and still won the league by 10 points. They were hardly consistent, but they benefited from every other big team having an off-year.

With their lack of depth, involvement in other competitions, inexperience, and the after-effects of the world cup, it's unlikely that Arsenal will keep up their current form. In fact, I think they will drop points in at least 3 games before the end of Feb.

It's really down to City to capitalise though. We have to punish them as and when they do drop points.
 
Arsenal has 21 games remaining (a total of 63 points available).

If they continue their current form until the end of the season, they will finish with 98 points.

If they replicate their form from last season (which I think seems like a worst-case scenario), they would finish with 82 points.

Considering they have to play:
- Us home and away
- Liverpool away
- Spurs away
- United home
- Newcastle away
and that they can drop points against lesser teams (like they did vs Southampton), I think it's likely they'll finish around 88 points.

Our current form has us finishing on 86 points.

I think it's incredibly unlikely that we won't improve slightly.

All things considered, those two games against Arsenal are going to be huge, title-deciding games and it's likely we'll be close enough to catch them during a high-pressure run-in.
 
blueparrot said:
No, but then it wasn't just one game last season either was it, or any season really can think of 3 straight off the top of my head from last season.
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True. Last season we dropped 5 pts vs Southampton and Palace at home within a month. Virtually every season we drop "silly" points at home. Even in 17/18 we dropped 4 pts vs Everton and Huddersfield...
 
alexmcity said:
Being on course to X pts is just a way of speaking, it shouldn't be taken too literary. To say that Arsenal are on course to win X pts is to project tendencies from the first 17 games onto 38 games. And that's highly problematic. Getting 90 pts is anything but easy, even on the basis of 44 pts after the first 17 games. Remember, Arsenal have won 90 pts only once (2004), and the league was less competitive back then. Martinelli and Saka are top talents, but they ain't Henry. It's not impossible for Arsenal to get 90 or even 95 pts. But it's not as likely as it may seem after the first 17 games.

Just as City dropped 5 pts in 2 home games vs Brentford and Everton, so will Arsenal drop points unexpectedly. Again, they don't outperform City in terms of creating and conceding chances. Nobody expected Watford to twat Liverpool 3:0 after Liverpool dropped just 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20. They were on course to 110 pts back then. And then dropped 13 pts in the last 10 games. It's not like they didn't want to break City's record of 100 pts. Form comes and goes, often unexpectedly.
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well said. and this arsenal is not close to the class of that liverpool side
 
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
 
Kompany Car said:
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
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If we are on 45pts after the next 3 matches, I will show my arse in Burtons window.
 
Kompany Car said:
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
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Only issue is this year we may still end up 2nd with 45points, not something we faced in past.
 
Kompany Car said:
At the half way point (19 matches played) we have had the following number of points…

2021-22 — 47pts, finished 1st with 93pts
2020–21 — 41pts, finished 1st with 86pts
2019-20 — 38pts, finished 2nd with 81pts
2018-19 — 44pts, finished 1st with 98pts
2017-18 — 55pts, finished 1st with 100pts

After 16 games we are on 36pts so win our next three and we will be on 45pts which puts us on target for a 90+ pts season.

Think it’s gonna be tight but previous performances show that we can put in an amazing performance in the second half of the season.
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Just looking at your list there, I looked at it like this:

2021-22 — 47pts, got 46 further points in the second half of the season
2020–21 — 41pts, got 45 further points
2019-20 — 38pts, got 43 further points
2018-19 — 44pts, got 54 further points
2017-18 — 55pts, got 45 further points

Apart from 2018-19, we have had remarkably similar second halves of the season with 45, 43, 45 and 46 points in the final 19 games in four out of those five seasons.

Even if you add in the 54 from 2018-19, the average for all five second halves of the season is 46.6 under Pep.

If we get 46 points in the second half of this season, I think we’ll need to win our next three games as that will have us finish on 91 points.
 
117 M34 said:
It's very possible that after the derby, the rags are above us.
Now that's depressing.
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That's the spirit, whilst our last 2 home games have been poor our away record has been pretty good just one defeat all season. Not saying the Rags game is going to be easy but I am quietly confident.
 
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Withnail said:
That's the spirit, whilst our last 2 home games have been poor our away record has been pretty good just one defeat all season. Not saying the Rags game is going to be easy but I am quietly confident.
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I think we will draw with them tbh
 
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