The Title Race - 2023/24

[Bluemoonadam]

Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.

I'd take a draw at anfield now if offered

 

[Platt Lane 59]

Yep.

Physicality/fitness and prep time is so important. We saw it at Bournemouth at the weekend because they were physically stronger towards the end of the game. Pep even mentioned it in his interviews.

At least before United and Liverpool for the next 2 weekends we are on the right side of it.

We play Tuesday in the Cup and United Wednesday so an extra day there.

Next week we play in a soft-ish home leg on the Wednesday and Liverpool are in Prague on the Thursday. Only Europa Leagiue for them but they still have to put out a team and have the travel as well.

Agree the week after the international break is very tough with Arsenal, Villa and Palace in 6 days. Villa have a day extra before they play us but at least we are at home. Also the Palace game comes directly before the CL QF which could be on the Tuesday, All going to be fun!

Completely agree that fitness and conditioning is crucial to City retaining the title.
But, if City were so tired after the Brentford home game, why did Pep only use 2 subs before the 84th minute and Kev coming on too late to do much ?
Alvarez also only came on in the 75th minute, when City were under the cosh.
I think City have by far the best squad, but we use fewer subs than our rivals...

 

[Cobwebcat]

Ok then.

What it suggeats instead is that xG is pretty meaningless in footballing terms.

Absolutely not, quite the opposite these days. Expected points is certainly used as a consideration when hiring and firing Managers in most top clubs for example (most notably Klopp) I can’t think of a PL club not using underlying statistics in their analytical data departments.

 

[supercity88]

Despite having been in good form with 9 wins in an 11 game unbeaten run, the performances leave me feeling more downbeat about our chances. But it's results that matter ultimately. We might have lacked our usual killer instinct in front of goal and looked more nervous seeing games through, but we've got the job done. Liverpool have a lot of injuries but you can see the squad is galvanised around Klopp's farewell and desperate to perform for him. Arsenal have turned on the swagger and look as though they'll blow teams away at the moment domestically. And our remaining fixtures are the hardest I would say.

But it's time to turn things up a gear. We're in a great position and I'm sure Pep has had an eye on this month. The CL game against Copenhagen at home is a nice one before Anfield, one we can hopefully finish off in the first half and rotate. We've got the majority of the squad fit and it would be good to be able to get Grealish back in and on the left, as I think he's critical to the balance of the side. He keeps the ball, helps defensively and enables players to take up good positions centrally.

Pep's got to make a call on what the best shape is. Do we play the team from last season with Kovacic for Gundo? Do we use Foden centrally or keep him right? Does Bernie start central, right or be a rotation option? Lots of questions and it depends on the opposition. But usually at this time of the season things look and feel more settled. Beat the rags on Sunday and that will be a huge lift going to Anfield.

 

[Coatigan]

Absolutely not, quite the opposite these days. Expected points is certainly used as a consideration when hiring and firing Managers in most top clubs for example (most notably Klopp) I can’t think of a PL club not using underlying statistics in their analytical data departments.

I meant in terms od predicting or assessing a season performance against the real positions. But I take your point beyond that.

 

[Cobwebcat]

I meant in terms od predicting or assessing a season performance against the real positions. But I take your point beyond that.

You mean like this?

Brentford also measure success differently, not by the league table, but by Ankersen's "table of justice," a variant of the expected goals model. This is informed by the belief that, because football is such a low-scoring sport—the average game has 2.7 goals, compared to over 200 points in basketball—luck is very important. As The Numbers Game notes, favourites win only 65 percent of football matches but 80 percent of basketball games.
But Brentford do not merely use the "table of justice" as an excuse. In 2015, Mark Warburton was not offered a new contract as manager after Brentford came fifth. The club believed the team had been lucky, that their performances had not merited such impressive results.

 

[citymad]

I'd take a draw at anfield now if offered

I "probably" wouldn't.We need to bury this curse they have on us there and show them who the real Champions are. Besides that would leave us with no room for error against Arsenal and Villa, two excellent teams.

 

[skillman]

Have a strange feeling Arsenal are stronger this season - mentally. Seem to be putting away teams with a bit of relative ease but that could be because I was expecting them to have already faltered/have been concentrating on the dippers.

Having them coming to our place is massive, though. Big game, that.

 

[chris85mcfc]

Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.

You're right about our form against the better teams, but it's worth noting that Liverpool have only beaten Villa back in September, and they're top of the shop.

 

[skillman]

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
2	Manchester City	26	18	5	3	59	26	59	58.00-1.00	25.55-0.45	56.20-2.80
3	Arsenal	26	18	4	4	62	23	58	57.12-4.88	21.92-1.08	55.44-2.56
1	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	63	25	60	61.99-1.01	32.81+7.81	51.40-8.60

Suggests that over the season City and Arsenal are performing better than Liverpool so far.

56 55 51

Either Alisson is a freak of nature or teams fluff their lines against the dippers. Or a mixture of both (most likely) but that's frustrating when you consider teams become very fucking clinical when they play us.

And that's with Ederson being fantastic this season.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I think the deeper Liverpool go into Europe the better. They are going to get fixture pile up like us if they go far in fa cup as well, they can’t fluke every game with all those injuries, I’d say Arsenal if they pick up a few will be the same and I don’t think they have the squad to cope, win our head to heads and I think we will “just” sneak it.

 

[Jesus H Gabz]

Have a strange feeling Arsenal are stronger this season - mentally. Seem to be putting away teams with a bit of relative ease but that could be because I was expecting them to have already faltered/have been concentrating on the dippers.

Having them coming to our place is massive, though. Big game, that.

Let’s see how they handle being in the CL, I think they’ll get past Porto, it’s who they get next is the interesting part, maybe us? They’ve got Brighton A….Villa H…..Wolves A…..around those dates

 

[Ribble73]

I’ve a feeling we’ll be drawn against the Arse in the CL should we both get through -which would have a huge bearing on things

 

[chris85mcfc]

We've all got really difficult periods to get through where you'd expect us all to drop a few points.

Ours comes up in our next 5 games, Liverpools is probably this next few weeks given the injuries they've got, although they do also have a few tricky games at the end of the season. We can deal a serious blow to them by beating them at Anfield, and we have to go there and play it like a Champions league tie.

Arsenal have tricky games through March and April, and still have to come to the Etihad which they won't fancy however you dress it up. They've also got to navigate through their 2nd leg with Porto.

These next 5 games for us are pivotal and will go a long way to dictating where the league ends up. I have United Brighton and Villa all down as City wins. We don't have to beat Arsenal if we can win at Anfield, although I'd expect us to.

As others have said we aren't showing signs of being able to win all 5, but I still think 11 points which include not getting beat against Arsenal or Liverpool is a really good return.

 

[TShed]

Remember way back winning the league cup often fucked the winners up for the rest of the season got a feeling we could see the same let’s hope they become the victims of their own success (see what I did there…. I’ll get my coat)

 

[TrentGrisham]

Have a strange feeling Arsenal are stronger this season - mentally. Seem to be putting away teams with a bit of relative ease but that could be because I was expecting them to have already faltered/have been concentrating on the dippers.

Having them coming to our place is massive, though. Big game, that.

I've been saying for months that you're a fool to keep discounting Arsenal. I could be wrong about Liverpool, but when I watch them, I don't see near the same constant domination that Arsenal have done to teams this season. Arsenal reminds me of us in years past, and they're doing it without Jesus, who is 2x the players Trossard and Havertz are.

 

[skillman]

I've been saying for months that you're a fool to keep discounting Arsenal. I could be wrong about Liverpool, but when I watch them, I don't see near the same constant domination that Arsenal have done to teams this season. Arsenal reminds me of us in years past, and they're doing it without Jesus, who is 2x the players Trossard and Havertz are.

I genuinely think no Jesus is a blessing. They shoehorn him into the number 9 position and he can’t finish for shit.

But dippers have always been like that IMO (even going back to 18/19), they’re just brilliantly clinical going forward but always offer up chances defensively.

 

[Bournemouth Blue]

Five tricky fixtures ahead and we are looking a bit leggy, time will tell

 

[TrentGrisham]

I genuinely think no Jesus is a blessing. They shoehorn him into the number 9 position and he can’t finish for shit.

Much like was for us, he is for them, IMO; he's an absolute handful and a nightmare for defenders and allows and makes players around him play better.

 

[hateutd]

They re in great form,and psychology.....Im afraid they will win everything,and this makes me feel sick.