The Title Race - 2023/24

How many points will be needed to win the league?

  • Total voters
    446
  • Poll closed .
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
Click to expand...
Those saying (possibly correctly) that we aren’t as strong as last season are conspicuously failing to recognise that we probably won’t need to be.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
Click to expand...

18/19 we were on 44 pts after 19 games and 7 pts off Liverpool, IIRC. We were 10 pts off Liverpool before Southampton away.
 
alexmcity said:
18/19 we were on 44 pts after 19 games and 7 pts off Liverpool, IIRC. We were 10 pts off Liverpool before Southampton away.
Click to expand...
Yep. Games 18 and 19 were those losses to Chelsea and Palace. So we were even further behind with less time to go against a stronger team, one of the strongest in Premier League history. Thankfully we were up to the task that year, being incredibly strong ourselves. We're weaker than we were then, and arguably in 22/23 too, but as @gordondaviesmoustache pointed out, we might not need to be that strong to retain the league this year.
 
youngbob said:
Seen that '17 games' graphic getting shared around a lot so thought I'd look deeper into it. This might be our lowest points total at this stage under Pep but we've actually been just as far behind the leaders in other title-winning seasons.

16/17 - 3rd on 36, 7 points off the top (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 1st on 49 points (finished 1st)
18/19 - 2nd on 44 points, 1 point off top spot (finished 1st)
19/20 - 3rd on 35 points, 14 points off top spot (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 2nd on 35 points, 2 points off top spot (finished 1st)
21/22 - 1st on 41 points (finished 1st)
22/23 - 2nd on 39 points, 5 off top spot (finished 1st)
23/24 - 4th on 34 points, 5 off top spot (N/A)

So looking at the data, in our eight seasons with Pep, we've only been 1st after 17 games on two occasions and we've come back from 5 points behind to win the league before. Unless one of Arsenal, Liverpool, or Villa suddenly goes on a run of 10 wins on the trot, we won't be far behind at any stage this season. We are fortunate that, during what looks to be an off-season for us, there's no real pace-setter or runaway leader. So we're very much still in it imo.

At the start of the season I thought 85-89 points would have to be reached to win the title but I think it'll be more like 78-84. It's shaping up to be quite similar to the season Leicester won the league, when not one team had reached the magic 40 mark by Christmas and Leicester won the title on 81 points, the lowest total since 2011. If we can improve our form even slightly we'll have enough to be heavily involved in the race until the end of the season.
Click to expand...

The key point is certainly that our rivals aren't what they were. I said the same last week. We've dropped 9 points through goals conceded late on in games and yet are 5pts off top. In season where Liverpool were going toe to toe with us we'd be double figures behind them now and it would quite probably be game over for our title chances. But the other teams are all struggling. What's hurting more this campaign is the fact we're seeing Arsenal and Liverpool win late whilst we do the opposite! But the key point to observe is that we're ahead in all of these games. No one is playing us off the park. It's game management which is the issue. We shouldn't be in a position where we're continually struggling to see games through. Even against Luton we were frantic and backs against the wall. Usually we keep the ball comfortably and just pass it amongst ourselves until the final whistle. That's an easy thing for Pep to address and considering the injury/suspension issues we've had which is seeing us rely a little too much on the squad at an early stage, I'm staying positive.

If Liverpool v Arsenal ends in a draw then we'll be 6pts behind Arsenal with a game in hand and they still have to come to our place. No major drama just yet.
 
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