They still only overtook our goals total for this season at the weekend.And where Arsenal seem to be now without a striker but loads of goals.
Yes, though the drop off in goals is probably more down to Haalands drop off in goals / injury than Gundogan and Mahrez who's goals are probably covered by the increase in Foden Rodri goals.Doku and Alvarez started okay but have also dried up a bit.7 down in the league - and that was already a drop from the season before.
I know it's a bit of a touchy subject for some, but when the goals were being shared around, that provided a bit more of a buffer against individual form.
That's the point I was making :)Yes, though the drop off in goals is probably more down to Haalands drop off in goals / injury than Gundogan and Mahrez who's goals are probably covered by the increas in Foden Rodri goals.Doku and Alvarez started okay but have also dried up a bit.
| № | Team | M | W | D | L | G | GA | PTS | xG | xGA | xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manchester City | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 59 | 26 | 59 | 58.00-1.00 | 25.55-0.45 | 56.20-2.80 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 62 | 23 | 58 | 57.12-4.88 | 21.92-1.08 | 55.44-2.56 |
| 1 | Liverpool | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 63 | 25 | 60 | 61.99-1.01 | 32.81+7.81 | 51.40-8.60 |
Chris Anderson's The Numbers Game - interesting read re match data and stats. For many clubs having a corner is a disadvantage if they go for goal = for SOME they are less likely to score (statistically) and when they go for it, with big defenders going up they are more vulnerable to the counter attack. Arsenal have made the attacking corner fashionable this year scoring at least 10 from these.Whatever about their experience we haven’t replaced their goals. Both Gundogan and Mahrez were prolific scorers none of Doku, Nunes or Kovacic have any goal scoring record. The loss of those two plus KDB’s extended absence has meant that there’s huge pressure on Alvarez, Foden and of course Haaland. Only Rodri has really added more goals. We could do with someone like KDB or Doku or Grealish to start scoring regularly in the run in.
It also doesn’t help that our set pieces are really ineffective. We get so many corners but don’t create enough chances from corners. We’ve had 47 corners in our last 5 matches, scored once and probably had 3 other chances. On Saturday we had Akanji, Ake, Dias, Stones, Rodri and Haaland as targets but didn’t hurt Bournemouth at all.
City under Pep are so close to the perfect machine, that they are almost always pretty near to their expected points.
№ Team M W D L G GA PTS xG xGA xPTS 2 Manchester City 26 18 5 3 59 26 59 58.00-1.00 25.55-0.45 56.20-2.80 3 Arsenal 26 18 4 4 62 23 58 57.12-4.88 21.92-1.08 55.44-2.56 1 Liverpool 26 18 6 2 63 25 60 61.99-1.01 32.81+7.81 51.40-8.60
Suggests that over the season City and Arsenal are performing better than Liverpool so far.
56 55 51
18 points I think, but yes that’s an amazing stat. I wouldn’t like to think what could cause a 30 point swing…lots of stuff probably.City under Pep are so close to the perfect machine, that they are almost always pretty near to their expected points.
We were 12 points ahead of Liverpool on expected points in 2019/20, and they finished that season 19 pts ahead of us. It's partly due to them relying on Allison, who is one of the top two or three shot stoppers in football, and I suspect partly down to being wound up like teenagers on speed, so that they outperform when they are in the groove, but fail miserably when they are out of it.
It doesn't though. It just suggests that the xG and the expectations are wrong.
№ Team M W D L G GA PTS xG xGA xPTS 2 Manchester City 26 18 5 3 59 26 59 58.00-1.00 25.55-0.45 56.20-2.80 3 Arsenal 26 18 4 4 62 23 58 57.12-4.88 21.92-1.08 55.44-2.56 1 Liverpool 26 18 6 2 63 25 60 61.99-1.01 32.81+7.81 51.40-8.60
Suggests that over the season City and Arsenal are performing better than Liverpool so far.
56 55 51
I don’t know what to make of this season. We seem to be hanging on rather than burying teams.
I actually think we are fine from an attacking point of view just very wasteful which won’t continue forever.
It’s out of possession and stopping turnovers that is making me nervous. We were much better at that last season.
The analytics guys suggest that is down to missing Gundo as neither Kovacic nor Nunes are doing as well, plus Grealish’s control has been missing through a drop off in form and/or injury. It’s a shame he got injured immediately after returning to the team.
To my untrained eyes our defence has looked wobbly. I’d like to see a centre half partnership of Stones and Gvardiol with Walker and Ake as full backs. Nothing against Akanji or Dias…I’d just like to see it tried.
In midfield I’d like to see Bernardo KDB Foden Grealish in front of Rodri and Haaland up top.
If we can get near our best of course we can win the lot again but I don’t have the same confidence watching the team as I did last season despite the fact we are in a similar position as last time except our goal difference is 8 less.
We effed up with Gundo, as did he IMHO.
Not really…actual points obtained and expected points (based on performance) are different measurements. xG is a better predictor of future points than actual points.It doesn't though. It just suggests that the xG and the expectations are wrong.
Yes I am hoping that too. City benefit from rotation without much of a drop in standard so have an advantage in fitness terms on the home straight no doubt.The only question for me is the physical condition of key players. This is something that only Pep and the medical staff know.
Have we tried to save energy in the previous months in order to be in top form in the final 2-3 months? Do we have enough in the tank? These are the key questions.
There are two opportunities to recover the team physically. The first is the week after Anfield (6-7 days between both games). The second is the international break where certain players shouldn't play (more than one game).
The schedule after the break is brutal: Arsenal, Villa and Palace over 6 days! If we are not in top physical condition we'll struggle.
Basically, if the players are fresh, then we have good chances. If they aren't, it will be difficult. Personally, I think the plan has been to hit top form in the last 2-3 months.
I think that's good for us. If the title is in our sights by then, we usually win these type of games at the end.Will get moved if we reach FA Cup SF and could end up in final midweek of the season with both teams desperate for three points.
The Liverpool result was so massive for them. They've looked a proper title contender since then. It shows the importance of these 6 pointer games. We have to atleast avoid defeats in the Arsenal and Liverpool games.They still only overtook our goals total for this season at the weekend.
Just half a dozen games ago, they were 11 behind our goals tally, so a lot of it depends on who you're playing, and purple patches in front of goal, but they've certainly begun answering their critics.
Yep.The only question for me is the physical condition of key players. This is something that only Pep and the medical staff know.
Have we tried to save energy in the previous months in order to be in top form in the final 2-3 months? Do we have enough in the tank? These are the key questions.
There are two opportunities to recover the team physically. The first is the week after Anfield (6-7 days between both games). The second is the international break where certain players shouldn't play (more than one game).
The schedule after the break is brutal: Arsenal, Villa and Palace over 6 days! If we are not in top physical condition we'll struggle.
Basically, if the players are fresh, then we have good chances. If they aren't, it will be difficult. Personally, I think the plan has been to hit top form in the last 2-3 months.
Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.The Liverpool result was so massive for them. They've looked a proper title contender since then. It shows the importance of these 6 pointer games. We have to atleast avoid defeats in the Arsenal and Liverpool games.
Ok then.Not really…actual points obtained and expected points (based on performance) are different measurements. xG is a better predictor of future points than actual points.
Actual points are results based.
xG is performance based.
Neither is wrong.