United thread 2013/14

[Prestwich_Blue]

But even if they finish 7th they could still get into the Europa League. If we manage to squeeze past West Ham and beat whomever in the final then 6th place will qualify.
If the FACup finalists are both top four finishers, then 7th is in, albeit playing a qualifier in Iceland in June!

I might be wrong here, but I'm pretty sure that if we win in the final then as long as the team we play doesn't finish in a European spot (CL or Europa) then they get the Europa spot.

You are wrong when talking about the League Cup. If we win it, then assuming we get top 4, the EL spot goes to the team that finishes sixth in the league. If the team that win the FA Cup qualify for Europe by another route, then the EL spot goes to the beaten finalists. If they've qualified by another route then it goes to the team finishing 7th.

Personally I'd prefer them to miss out on Europe altogether as that hits them much harder financially and coefficient wise. If that happens they'll take something like a £70m minimum hit, use up one of their two 'lives' on their banking covenants and almost certainly drop out of Pot 1. So the ideal scenario is us winning the League Cup and a team that finishes above them playing a team that finishes below them in the FA Cup final. That way, they'd have to be 6th to qualify for Europe. If by some chance Sunderland were to win the League Cup, they'd need to finish 5th.

If they were to repeat that failure to qualify for Europe for a second successive year, then the shit would really hit the fan. Pot 4 and their loans called in.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

if you were the owners who have just lost a major part of their investment in the market, would you leverage another £100 million to get the players needed to get them into the top four? You have Rooney their best player who has not signed a new contract. Dont think so. I would be looking at trying to sort out the playing squad in the summer and getting what i could for the big names. They are in trouble due to years of their owners using them as a cash cow. Long may it continue.

Would you lend to someone who is already in hock up to their eyeballs? and having to pay interest in excess of £20 million a year

 

[Anonymous]

If they were to repeat that failure to qualify for Europe for a second successive year, then the shit would really hit the fan. Pot 4 and their loans called in.

Oh please God make it so! :))

 

[aguero93:20]

If they were to repeat that failure to qualify for Europe for a second successive year, then the shit would really hit the fan. Pot 4 and their loans called in.

Oh please God make it so! :))

as long as they don't get a bailout from a new owner with deep pockets and an interest in improving the footballing side of the club, that wouldn't be good.

 

[Anonymous]

If they were to repeat that failure to qualify for Europe for a second successive year, then the shit would really hit the fan. Pot 4 and their loans called in.

Oh please God make it so! :))

as long as they don't get a bailout from a new owner with deep pockets and an interest in improving the footballing side of the club, that wouldn't be good.

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

 

[Plaything of the gods]

Oh please God make it so! :))

as long as they don't get a bailout from a new owner with deep pockets and an interest in improving the footballing side of the club, that wouldn't be good.

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

 

[aguero93:20]

as long as they don't get a bailout from a new owner with deep pockets and an interest in improving the footballing side of the club, that wouldn't be good.

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

If they got rid of the likes of Ferdinand and vidic, both on massive wages, they would be able to overpay slightly to attract players and if they were debt free they probably have the financial muscle to do it even under FFP, as for El + CL look who Monaco signed this summer?
New Owners at the Swamp? No thanks, Long Live The Glazers!!

 

[M18CTID]

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

If they got rid of the likes of Ferdinand and vidic, both on massive wages, they would be able to overpay slightly to attract players and if they were debt free they probably have the financial muscle to do it even under FFP, as for El + CL look who Monaco signed this summer?
New Owners at the Swamp? No thanks, Long Live The Glazers!!

Yeah, I think we seem to be forgetting that Spurs signed a lot of very good players in the summer and that was without having CL football so it is entirely possible that United could attract similar quality players if they don't get top 4 either. The burning question though is just how big a spend are the Glazers prepared to sanction? As you say, moving on some ageing high earners will create a fair bit of extra space in their budget regardless. And if the clearout extends to, say, 7 or 8 players, then there will be plenty of scope for freshening up their squad. Hopefully they screw the opportunity up and spend a shed load of money on mediocre players!

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

as long as they don't get a bailout from a new owner with deep pockets and an interest in improving the footballing side of the club, that wouldn't be good.

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

Wouldn't they just rely on their youth system though....like

Januzaj
Pogba
Ronaldo
Ferdinand

etc

 

[TGR]

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

If they got rid of the likes of Ferdinand and vidic, both on massive wages, they would be able to overpay slightly to attract players and if they were debt free they probably have the financial muscle to do it even under FFP, as for El + CL look who Monaco signed this summer?
New Owners at the Swamp? No thanks, Long Live The Glazers!!

Yeah, I think we seem to be forgetting that Spurs signed a lot of very good players in the summer and that was without having CL football so it is entirely possible that United could attract similar quality players if they don't get top 4 either. The burning question though is just how big a spend are the Glazers prepared to sanction? As you say, moving on some ageing high earners will create a fair bit of extra space in their budget regardless. And if the clearout extends to, say, 7 or 8 players, then there will be plenty of scope for freshening up their squad. Hopefully they screw the opportunity up and spend a shed load of money on mediocre players!

Don't forget that Spurs only spent the Gareth Bale money - nothing else. They also do have an owner with pretty deep pockets and plenty of cash.
The rags have neither.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

If they got rid of the likes of Ferdinand and vidic, both on massive wages, they would be able to overpay slightly to attract players and if they were debt free they probably have the financial muscle to do it even under FFP, as for El + CL look who Monaco signed this summer?
New Owners at the Swamp? No thanks, Long Live The Glazers!!

Yeah, I think we seem to be forgetting that Spurs signed a lot of very good players in the summer and that was without having CL football so it is entirely possible that United could attract similar quality players if they don't get top 4 either. The burning question though is just how big a spend are the Glazers prepared to sanction? As you say, moving on some ageing high earners will create a fair bit of extra space in their budget regardless. And if the clearout extends to, say, 7 or 8 players, then there will be plenty of scope for freshening up their squad. Hopefully they screw the opportunity up and spend a shed load of money on mediocre players!

Don't forget that Spurs only spent the Gareth Bale money - nothing else. They also do have an owner with pretty deep pockets and plenty of cash.
The rags have neither.

United will have the Rooney money though.

 

[laserblue]

Personally I'd prefer them to miss out on Europe altogether as that hits them much harder financially and coefficient wise. If that happens they'll take something like a £70m minimum hit, use up one of their two 'lives' on their banking covenants and almost certainly drop out of Pot 1.

Attractive as your scenario is, I'd prefer them to qualify for the Europa League on league position as firstly the EL would provide a distraction for them next season especially as they'd have to play a qualifier to even get in the group stage. Secondly, they'd still lose a shitload of money by not playing in the CL. Thirdly, In its own way the prospect of playing Thursday night ITV4 (or whatever) would be a greater humiliation for the rags than failing to qualify for Europe at all. The likes of Sheriff Tiraspol, Shakhtar Karagandy and Panduri Targu Jiu would beckon and I'd love to see the crowd figures (actual not rag PR inflated) at the swamp for fixtures like those.

 

[The Flash]

Good catch mate. Jumped the gun a bit with my post, should have had the caveat :))

But what sort of new talent would they be able to attract if they were to be out of Europe completely next year? Either their signings would have to have a lot of faith in United's future, or United would have to rebuild with unproven signings, after the end of season clearout. Even just being in the EL wouldn't be much of a draw.

Wouldn't they just rely on their youth system though....like

Januzaj
Pogba
Ronaldo
Ferdinand

etc

Not forgetting the £16m they paid Blackburn to put Phil Baresi Jones through their youth academy too. They do things the 'right' way, don'tcher know?

 

[Blue Til Death]

They simply must qualify for the CL next year, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were somehow able to win it, thereby doing their "Derby" rivals out of a place next year (Liverpool that is!) Watch out for dodgy decisions and favourable CL draws over the next few months!

There is zero chance of the rags getting to the final let alone winning it, they are simply not good enough in every department. Sleep easy mate, they wont win it and wont make top 4..!

If they had to rely on one or even two teams messing up, then they would have a small chance of recovering the points deficit, if they win every game, they however have to rely on:

Arsenal
City
Chelsea
Liverpool
Everton
Spurs (maybe)

All fucking up at once, no chance of that happening whatsoever, I reckon 5th at absolute best but more likely 6th or 7th. When the rags start celebrating beating Swansea at the swamp like they have just won the PL, you know they are on the downward spiral.. The lower they go the happier we are.. ;-))

Hope you're right mate - a lot of sleeps left before the end of the season!

 

[Bluesiam]

That is fantastic!

Quality!!!!!

 

[No6]

Some financial analysis from the Guardian here:

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jan/14/manchester-united-share-price-david-moyes-premier-league?CMP=twt_gu&commentpage=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.theguardian.com/football/blo ... mentpage=1</a>

Having fun WUMming in the comments too :)


Edit: just come across this too via the comments section: <a class="postlink" href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2521621/The-22m-football-bet-Hedge-fund-guru-Crispin-Odey-shorts-Manchester-United-shares.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark ... hares.html</a>

Anyone with a bit more financial acumen than me got any more info on this?

 

[smeeagain]

this is gonna be very interesting, i,m certainly no expert but
the bloke whos basically betting on uniteds shares falling will surely be winding up that george soros fella , is he going to stand by and watch his stake fall ?? encouraged by the other blokes bet?
i would reckon soros will put money up to protect his existing investment

 

[samharris]

Dennis Irwin: "David Moyes is going to build something special at ManUtd. The plans for new players are staggering and very exciting". LMAO .......... Anichibe, Hibbert and Osman ?

Its all well and good buying ferraris and lambo's but it goes pear shaped when theyre tuned at Freds backstreet garage..

:)

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Some financial analysis from the Guardian here:

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jan/14/manchester-united-share-price-david-moyes-premier-league?CMP=twt_gu&commentpage=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.theguardian.com/football/blo ... mentpage=1</a>

Having fun WUMming in the comments too :)


Edit: just come across this too via the comments section: <a class="postlink" href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2521621/The-22m-football-bet-Hedge-fund-guru-Crispin-Odey-shorts-Manchester-United-shares.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark ... hares.html</a>

Anyone with a bit more financial acumen than me got any more info on this?

What he's done is sell shares he hasn't got (basically that he's borrowed) in the expectation that he can buy those back at a lower price later on, thereby making a profit. He's gambling on the price going down and he that he will be able to do that. If it goes up, then it costs him money.

It's like one of us agreeing to sell a match ticket to someone for £50 then trying to buy one for less money before you have to give it to the buyer. If you buy one for £35, you're in profit. If you have to pay £55 then you've lost a fiver.

 

[andyhinch]

Some financial analysis from the Guardian here:

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jan/14/manchester-united-share-price-david-moyes-premier-league?CMP=twt_gu&commentpage=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.theguardian.com/football/blo ... mentpage=1</a>

Having fun WUMming in the comments too :)


Edit: just come across this too via the comments section: <a class="postlink" href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2521621/The-22m-football-bet-Hedge-fund-guru-Crispin-Odey-shorts-Manchester-United-shares.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mark ... hares.html</a>

Anyone with a bit more financial acumen than me got any more info on this?

What he's done is sell shares he hasn't got (basically that he's borrowed) in the expectation that he can buy those back at a lower price later on, thereby making a profit. He's gambling on the price going down and he that he will be able to do that. If it goes up, then it costs him money.

It's like one of us agreeing to sell a match ticket to someone for £50 then trying to buy one for less money before you have to give it to the buyer. If you buy one for £35, you're in profit. If you have to pay £55 then you've lost a fiver.

Could you explain the maths.