Id agree with that. But he is also a worse candidate now, even though he was bad last time.
And I keep saying events in the run up to any election have a massive impact on the result. He won last time with a late swing because of the Hilary Email investigation. They tried and tried with hunters laptop to do the same but it didn't stick. But something like that can stick and shift the polls significantly.
His chance assumes he's not in jail though and the way things are panning out Trump will win the nomination wile sat in a court room and then end up in jail before the election. The GOP is as likely to fully implode as it is to gain power with Trump. I don't discount him winning I just think the possible outcomes are varied and jail without winning the most likely. However, if he beats the odds in his various trials, wins some and builds on the persecution narrative (and isn't in jail by November 2024) then he could easily win.