US Politics Thread

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I recogniz(s)e that accepting blame is never what he’s done, because he’s never been held accountable. I recogniz(s)e that the idea of being a martyr is appealing to him on its face (Nixon said EXACTLY the same thing about jail — “peace, a hard table to write on — Gandhi and Lenin did their best writing from jail” — but was scared to death). But I also know that when he is facing some number of months or years in “jail” — no golf, no communicating with the outside world, no ability to manage whatever assets he has left — that he’ll cave. Know why? Because he’s a bully. And all bullies are cowards once you make them accountable.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

The idea of normal/moderate Republicans sounds ridiculous to me. They would all vote to take away SS and Medicare if they had the chance and that isn’t normal to any degree.

They wouldn’t. Moderates have been utterly marginali(z)sed by MAGA. That’s a MAGA platform for one reason only — because it owns the libs. Once MAGA is defeated, the GOP will go back to their old ways . . . of reducing/refusing to expand MC and SS, not shuttering it. Don’t forget to be true MAGA you have to our-extreme other MAGAs by creating the most upsetting platform to outrage the most libs.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I am forecasting a plea deal that keeps him out of jail but as part of it he agrees not to run for nor serve in a public office. Would include long probation, perhaps home monitoring, restricted travel, a humongous fine, etc. plus he publicly allocutes to his crimes.

And then at some point down the road, some time from now, there’s enough state legislature support for a CA that adds some strictures as to who can serve as President beyond having to be 35+ and born in the USA. That would include no convicted felons/pleading guilty to a felony. Who would vote against that once Trump is out of the picture?

For which case(s) are you forecasting such a plea deal? Georgia Election Interference, Federal Charges Stemming from January 6 or Federal Mishandling of Classified Documents?

With respect to the Georgia Election Interference case, I doubt that Fani Willis would make such an offer. I think that Willis will insist on jail time as part of any plea deal.

With respect to Jan 6 charges, such a plea deal is disproportionate given that the median prison sentence for Jan 6th rioters is 60 days - and Trump caused the riot to occur and committed numerous other acts of felony on top of sparking the riot.

With respect to mishandling of classified documents, I suppose that the plea deal you envision makes sense. The DOJ really didn't want to pursue this case, but Trump's unwillingness to turn over the documents and his obstruction have forced their hand.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

For which case(s) are you forecasting such a plea deal? Georgia Election Interference, Federal Charges Stemming from January 6 or Federal Mishandling of Classified Documents?

With respect to the Georgia Election Interference case, I doubt that Fani Willis would make such an offer. I think that Willis will insist on jail time as part of any plea deal.

With respect to Jan 6 charges, such a plea deal is disproportionate given that the median prison sentence for Jan 6th rioters is 60 days - and Trump caused the riot to occur and committed numerous other acts of felony on top of sparking the riot.

With respect to mishandling of classified documents, I suppose that the plea deal you envision makes sense. The DOJ really didn't want to pursue this case, but Trump's unwillingness to turn over the documents and his obstruction have forced their hand.

We need to keep in mind that putting an ex-President in jail is a never-happened-before thing in the USA. It’s historically momentous. I don’t think anyone (Fani or otherwise) will do it lightly — just as those close to Nixon were paranoid about being perceived as coup d’etat plotters by even so much as suggesting resignation as an option let alone recommending it.

 

[Username Required]

If we really don't have a two-tiered justice system, he has to forfeit his liberty, which would be good for the Republic in the long-term.

Just my opinion.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

If we really don't have a two-tiered justice system, he has to forfeit his liberty, which would be good for the Republic in the long-term.

Just my opinion.

Agreed. But we do have one, I suspect, when it comes to this.

The other side of the argument is to make sure the law comes down hard for the Jan 6 charges (per @BlueMoonAcrossThePond) to ensure this doesn’t ever happen again. Agree with him that that one is going to be the toughest one to avoid jail time on but a very cursory glance suggests it might also be the toughest one to convict him on.

 

[BayernMan]

The second amendments true purpose.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I am forecasting a plea deal that keeps him out of jail but as part of it he agrees not to run for nor serve in a public office. Would include long probation, perhaps home monitoring, restricted travel, a humongous fine, etc. plus he publicly allocutes to his crimes.

And then at some point down the road, some time from now, there’s enough state legislature support for a CA that adds some strictures as to who can serve as President beyond having to be 35+ and born in the USA. That would include no convicted felons/pleading guilty to a felony. Who would vote against that once Trump is out of the picture?

Why should they have to be born in the USA? Isn’t that as much a relic as so much else of the USC?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

For which case(s) are you forecasting such a plea deal? Georgia Election Interference, Federal Charges Stemming from January 6 or Federal Mishandling of Classified Documents?

With respect to the Georgia Election Interference case, I doubt that Fani Willis would make such an offer. I think that Willis will insist on jail time as part of any plea deal.

With respect to Jan 6 charges, such a plea deal is disproportionate given that the median prison sentence for Jan 6th rioters is 60 days - and Trump caused the riot to occur and committed numerous other acts of felony on top of sparking the riot.

With respect to mishandling of classified documents, I suppose that the plea deal you envision makes sense. The DOJ really didn't want to pursue this case, but Trump's unwillingness to turn over the documents and his obstruction have forced their hand.

Agree. If you look at each individually...

The Georgia case is closing in on Trump and Wilis will like her chances of conviction. She could have everyone bar Trump and Rudy plead out. Why would she deal?

Whatever happens in Georgia impacts Jan 6th. Its a very similar case. Wilis is gathering evidence and witnesses that Jack Smith can use. It's harder to prove though. So Jack might take a plea deal from Trump. But what charge, if he pleads guilty to insurrection can he be let of jail?

The florida docs case is clear cut. And hugely damaging if it goes to trial. The DoJ would like a plea deal as its an easy out but how would the public react to a no jail deal.

On balance I think he has to end up in jail from one of the three.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Somewhat off topic...

Do any of you watch the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) show, "Washington Week?" It's undergone a name change - now it's called, "Washington Week With the Atlantic" - and features a new moderator and largely new panelists.

I stopped watching Washington Week about a year ago because it simply wasn't interesting.

But the new Washington Week With the Atlantic has undergone a sea change. Very sharp dialog and analysis. Jeffrey Goldberg moderates, framing each episode, offering commentary, and controlling the pace of discourse. He's excellent.

Panelists change from episode to episode. This week's panelists were Dana Bash of CNN, Franklin Foer of The Atlantic, Steve Inskeep of NPR and Nancy Youssef of The Wall Street Journal. Each panelist was sharp, witty and had interesting perspectives on the various topics (except maybe for Franklin Foer, who was less impressive).

Washington Week With the Atlantic is fantastic and is must-see-TV.