US Politics Thread

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Debates are irrelevant because if Trump is convicted of a felony, Biden would be stupid to debate. Game over.

If Trump isn't convicted of a felony, Trump would be stupid to debate. Game over.

It's down to whether or not Trump is convicted of a felony. My prediction is that no Presidential debates will occur in 2024.
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But if he appeals and it is not heard before the election?

Irrespective of Trump's legal issues, the democratic process benefits from open and transparent communication between and from candidates. The debates provide an opportunity for voters to hear directly from the candidates, and avoiding them could be interpreted as a disservice to the democratic ideals of transparency and engagement. Biden would also have the presidential responsibility of engaging in the debates and addressing public concerns, and failure to participate could weaken trust in him. Painful as the spectacle might be, I hope they happen and that historic precedent is followed.
 
SWP's back said:
You’d have to offer very very good odds for me to bet that the stock market isn’t higher with interest rates lower come November.
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If those were the only two inputs, I’d agree!

However, I’d suggest the reason for the lower interest rates might not be the one we both hope and the economic or geopolitical shocks that might cause ripples (or far more) through our markets are still unknown.

2024 may be the year of “Well, I didn’t see THAT coming!”

Like you, I hope interest rates are lower, the stock market is higher, and geopolitics are nothing more than a damp squib on the global economy.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I doubt anyone trusts Trump to adhere to agreed rules, and that's another reason why they won't happen.
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Yup.

Biden isn't a great debater and if he's way ahead he won't debate.

Trump is great at stirring emotion, but in a national debate if he's way ahead, he'd be stupid to debate. And this is exactly what happened during the Republican caucus runoffs.

So as things stand, Trump v. Biden without a conviction... Trump is way ahead and will refuse to debate.

Once Trump is convicted, poll numbers - insofar as currently polling suggests - will tilt massively against Trump, at which point Biden would be stupid to debate.

Perhaps there's some middle ground where the election is up for grabs and each candidate feels that a positive debate performance will make the difference... but I think that this scenario is unlikely.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Yup.

Biden isn't a great debater and if he's way ahead he won't debate.

Trump is great at stirring emotion, but in a national debate if he's way ahead, he'd be stupid to debate. And this is exactly what happened during the Republican caucus runoffs.

So as things stand, Trump v. Biden without a conviction... Trump is way ahead and will refuse to debate.

Once Trump is convicted, poll numbers - insofar as currently polling suggests - will tilt massively against Trump, at which point Biden would be stupid to debate.

Perhaps there's some middle ground where the election is up for grabs and each candidate feels that a positive debate performance will make the difference... but I think that this scenario is unlikely.
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If I remember correctly Trump was awful against Biden last time and pulled out after the first. If anyone is not turning up its Trump.
 
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