FogBlueInSanFran
Well-Known Member
Moreover, this supposed majority for some reason refuses to participate in polls and is disinclined to bet on the election outcome.
IMO a Trump felony conviction would probably seal a Biden victory; absent that, it's probably Trump in 2024.
That said, we're in totally uncharted territory.
Biden, as incumbent, should be up. Furthermore the economy is great. Into the mix, Trump has claimed personal credit for the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe. Biden should be golden, impossible for Trump to beat.
And yet... Biden is down. In poll after poll after poll and among bettors - who IMO (but controversially so) - outperform polls in predictive ability (but even if this isn't true, it's at least another data point).
If Democrats - and Biden - are to prevail, absent a Trump felony conviction, they need to be extremely adept. For starters, in swing states, there absolutely needs to be some sort of abortion/contraceptive measure on the 2024 Presidential ballot to get out the vote.
Messaging needs to improve too - although it's unclear - to me - how to effectively counter the Right's massive misinformation network. The Right's misinformation fires up their base, and turns independent/neutral voters into brain dead sheeple, believing that The Right has done a bunch of bad things but that The Left is just the same.
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TL/DR - I think that Trump is favorite to be the next US President absent a felony conviction prior to the 2024 election.
Your logic doesn't make that much sense to me. If he's convicted of a felony you think his base won't show up? Or you think THAT'S what will suddenly make undecided/laconic/disinterested people vote for Biden? Why? For all the evidence we have and have had over the nearly 40 years this guy has been a public figure, people have already made up their minds for the most part.
In my small circle, NO ONE talks about politics any more. I think we've all had enough. There's no upside to it, and no one is going to convince anyone else. I suspect polls are very much skewed toward people who would answer such things, and that is decidedly not me nor anyone I know. No one has the interest or the time, and fewer and fewer have land lines, and screen junk calls on their cells, and junk emails. Nutters seem to have that time, and interest in being heard (needing attention) too.