US Politics Thread

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Moreover, this supposed majority for some reason refuses to participate in polls and is disinclined to bet on the election outcome.

IMO a Trump felony conviction would probably seal a Biden victory; absent that, it's probably Trump in 2024.

That said, we're in totally uncharted territory.

Biden, as incumbent, should be up. Furthermore the economy is great. Into the mix, Trump has claimed personal credit for the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe. Biden should be golden, impossible for Trump to beat.

And yet... Biden is down. In poll after poll after poll and among bettors - who IMO (but controversially so) - outperform polls in predictive ability (but even if this isn't true, it's at least another data point).

If Democrats - and Biden - are to prevail, absent a Trump felony conviction, they need to be extremely adept. For starters, in swing states, there absolutely needs to be some sort of abortion/contraceptive measure on the 2024 Presidential ballot to get out the vote.

Messaging needs to improve too - although it's unclear - to me - how to effectively counter the Right's massive misinformation network. The Right's misinformation fires up their base, and turns independent/neutral voters into brain dead sheeple, believing that The Right has done a bunch of bad things but that The Left is just the same.
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TL/DR - I think that Trump is favorite to be the next US President absent a felony conviction prior to the 2024 election.

Your logic doesn't make that much sense to me. If he's convicted of a felony you think his base won't show up? Or you think THAT'S what will suddenly make undecided/laconic/disinterested people vote for Biden? Why? For all the evidence we have and have had over the nearly 40 years this guy has been a public figure, people have already made up their minds for the most part.

In my small circle, NO ONE talks about politics any more. I think we've all had enough. There's no upside to it, and no one is going to convince anyone else. I suspect polls are very much skewed toward people who would answer such things, and that is decidedly not me nor anyone I know. No one has the interest or the time, and fewer and fewer have land lines, and screen junk calls on their cells, and junk emails. Nutters seem to have that time, and interest in being heard (needing attention) too.

 

[Phil1]

Your logic doesn't make that much sense to me. If he's convicted of a felony you think his base won't show up? Or you think THAT'S what will suddenly make undecided/laconic/disinterested people vote for Biden? Why? For all the evidence we have and have had over the nearly 40 years this guy has been a public figure, people have already made up their minds for the most part.

In my small circle, NO ONE talks about politics any more. I think we've all had enough. There's no upside to it, and no one is going to convince anyone else. I suspect polls are very much skewed toward people who would answer such things, and that is decidedly not me nor anyone I know. No one has the interest or the time. Nutters seem to have both.

He could shit on the US flag and throw it at the statue of Lincoln and not lose his base!

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

He could shit on the US flag and throw it at the statue of Lincoln and not lose his base!

And his base includes economic conservatives who may hate him but like his "economic policies" so will vote for him anyhow, no matter what, as they would any Republican who says the words "lower taxes."

 

[ChicagoBlue]

If so, the silent majority is pretty goddamn invisible. Moreover, this supposed majority for some reason refuses to participate in polls and is disinclined to bet on the election outcome.

IMO a Trump felony conviction would probably seal a Biden victory; absent that, it's probably Trump in 2024.

That said, we're in totally uncharted territory.

Biden, as incumbent, should be up. Furthermore the economy is great. Into the mix, Trump has claimed personal credit for the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe. Biden should be golden, impossible for Trump to beat.

And yet... Biden is down. In poll after poll after poll and among bettors - who IMO (but controversially so) - outperform polls in predictive ability (but even if this isn't true, it's at least another data point).

If Democrats - and Biden - are to prevail, absent a Trump felony conviction, they need to be extremely adept. For starters, in swing states, there absolutely needs to be some sort of abortion/contraceptive measure on the 2024 Presidential ballot to get out the vote.

Messaging needs to improve too - although it's unclear - to me - how to effectively counter the Right's massive misinformation network. The Right's misinformation fires up their base, and turns independent/neutral voters into brain dead sheeple, believing that The Right has done a bunch of bad things but that The Left is just the same.
===
TL/DR - I think that Trump is favorite to be the next US President absent a felony conviction prior to the 2024 election.

Trump support has fallen off with the “moderates who took a chance.”

There are just too many Americans who have seen what a disaster he is, both personally and professionally. Hell, even his daughter testified to it at the Jan 6th hearings!

187 minutes of watching an insurrection on TV from his dining room, as his supporters erected a gallows, chanted “Hang Mike Pence,” and the Secret Service told Pence, “If we don’t get you out now, we might not be able to get you out!” as thd rioters moved in!

That alone should disqualify him, but it doesn’t yet!

Ma & Pa Semi-Sensible America aren’t up for another dose of scary crazy…I hope!

Plus, we are still in the Nomination phase and Republicans are getting all the airtime because they’re the ones fighting amongst themselves. Wake Joe up when the race begins in earnest!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

He could shit on the US flag and throw it at the statue of Lincoln and not lose his base!

That base cannot elect him!

 

[Phil1]

That base cannot elect him!

Thankfully!!

 

[Delboy352]

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

If so, the silent majority is pretty goddamn invisible. Moreover, this supposed majority for some reason refuses to participate in polls and is disinclined to bet on the election outcome.

IMO a Trump felony conviction would probably seal a Biden victory; absent that, it's probably Trump in 2024.

That said, we're in totally uncharted territory.

Biden, as incumbent, should be up. Furthermore the economy is great. Into the mix, Trump has claimed personal credit for the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe. Biden should be golden, impossible for Trump to beat.

And yet... Biden is down. In poll after poll after poll and among bettors - who IMO (but controversially so) - outperform polls in predictive ability (but even if this isn't true, it's at least another data point).

If Democrats - and Biden - are to prevail, absent a Trump felony conviction, they need to be extremely adept. For starters, in swing states, there absolutely needs to be some sort of abortion/contraceptive measure on the 2024 Presidential ballot to get out the vote.

Messaging needs to improve too - although it's unclear - to me - how to effectively counter the Right's massive misinformation network. The Right's misinformation fires up their base, and turns independent/neutral voters into brain dead sheeple, believing that The Right has done a bunch of bad things but that The Left is just the same.
===
TL/DR - I think that Trump is favorite to be the next US President absent a felony conviction prior to the 2024 election.

Sorry -- also -- as a few of us brought up -- the NH polls headed in predicted a Tump win percentage point-wise that turned about to be double what actually transpired vs. Haley. That's pretty good evidence that there's a "silent majority" (as @Uncle Wally One Ball put it) out there . . .

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

That base cannot elect him!

Don't kid yourself.. it can and did in 2016. Once in the ballot box a lot of people vote against who they hate and this hate of migrants is working.

NYC is super liberal yet 77% of those liberal New Yorkers want these migrants deported as the mayor wants to cut police, fire, paramedics and hospital workers in order to house these migrants in hotels.

It's obvious the Republican plan to end illegal immigration is by turning the nation into such a shit hole that nobody will want to come here.. and scare the locals away from voting for policies that're good for them.

Lets be honest.. they aren't doing too badly either.. so yeah he can win! Biden has his work cut out for him to hammer it home that Trump and the GOP aren't going to fix things.. they'll likely make it a whole lot worse by curtailing personal freedoms!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Don't kid yourself.. it can and did in 2016. Once in the ballot box a lot of people vote against who they hate and this hate of migrants is working.

NYC is super liberal yet 77% of those liberal New Yorkers want these migrants deported as the mayor wants to cut police, fire, paramedics and hospital workers in order to house these migrants in hotels.

It's obvious the Republican plan to end illegal immigration is by turning the nation into such a shit hole that nobody will want to come here.. and scare the locals away from voting for policies that're good for them.

Lets be honest.. they aren't doing too badly either.. so yeah he can win! Biden has his work cut out for him to hammer it home that Trump and the GOP aren't going to fix things.. they'll likely make it a whole lot worse by curtailing personal freedoms!

His base isn’t nearly big enough to elect him. The non-MAGA Republicans have to decide if they are willing to take Trump simply because he has an R label. Both my In-laws are conservative Rs, but refuse to vote for him! There are plenty more like them.

In addition, there are the ones who took a chance in 2016, and maybe even voted for him in 2020, but given the events of Jan 6, all the lawsuits, the $80+M rape and defamation award, and the little matter of dozens of felony charges, they’re not willing to do it again!

Even if you say both bases are 40%, it’s the centrist 20% who are called “swing voters” that will decide the election in a handful of states!

Sadly, although Trump lost the 2020 national popular vote by literally millions of votes, the election boiled down to a few thousand votes in a small handful of swing states.

Lord help us!