US Politics Thread

[SWP's back]

If so, the silent majority is pretty goddamn invisible. Moreover, this supposed majority for some reason refuses to participate in polls and is disinclined to bet on the election outcome.

IMO a Trump felony conviction would probably seal a Biden victory; absent that, it's probably Trump in 2024.

That said, we're in totally uncharted territory.

Biden, as incumbent, should be up. Furthermore the economy is great. Into the mix, Trump has claimed personal credit for the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe. Biden should be golden, impossible for Trump to beat.

And yet... Biden is down. In poll after poll after poll and among bettors - who IMO (but controversially so) - outperform polls in predictive ability (but even if this isn't true, it's at least another data point).

If Democrats - and Biden - are to prevail, absent a Trump felony conviction, they need to be extremely adept. For starters, in swing states, there absolutely needs to be some sort of abortion/contraceptive measure on the 2024 Presidential ballot to get out the vote.

Messaging needs to improve too - although it's unclear - to me - how to effectively counter the Right's massive misinformation network. The Right's misinformation fires up their base, and turns independent/neutral voters into brain dead sheeple, believing that The Right has done a bunch of bad things but that The Left is just the same.
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TL/DR - I think that Trump is favorite to be the next US President absent a felony conviction prior to the 2024 election.

 

[SWP's back]

NYC is super liberal yet 77% of those liberal New Yorkers want these migrants deported as the mayor wants to cut police, fire, paramedics and hospital workers in order to house these migrants in hotels.

I’m calling bullshit on this.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

NYC is super liberal yet 77% of those liberal New Yorkers want these migrants deported as the mayor wants to cut police, fire, paramedics and hospital workers in order to house these migrants in hotels.

"We asked 100 of the Trumpiest looking white guys..."

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

This could be big.



Trump's civil fraud case always had the potential to smoke out some criminal issues. Trump's legal problems continue to go really badly for him.

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

I’m calling bullshit on this.

"We asked 100 of the Trumpiest looking white guys..."

Funny thing is you'd be surprised about 2 things.

1. Liberal NIMBYism.. ya migrants are fine.. help them, BUT don't put them in my back yard!!!

2. Previous immigrants who're legal now.. just walk around and ask them yourself.. they keep saying "they did it the hard way, no one helped them and now the newer illegals are getting free hotels and food, while they're struggling to pay bills and feed their family" types who are now legal US citizens and have the right to vote!!!


Those 2 along with the Idiot Mayor's promise of cuts to Police, Paramedics, Fire rub people the wrong way. They won't take it out on their council members but instead on the Mayor (a former Republican) who's an idiot and totally mismanaging.



So yeah it's weird.. They're super liberal but turning into right wing talk parrots at the same time!

The most common way of thinking is.. "We could have had the garbage lady for mayor, but those "insert racial epithet" voted for that clown mayor!"

I would be surprised if the mayor was re-elected next time around!

 

[KS55]

His base isn’t nearly big enough to elect him. The non-MAGA Republicans have to decide if they are willing to take Trump simply because he has an R label. Both my In-laws are conservative Rs, but refuse to vote for him! There are plenty more like them.

In addition, there are the ones who took a chance in 2016, and maybe even voted for him in 2020, but given the events of Jan 6, all the lawsuits, the $80+M rape and defamation award, and the little matter of dozens of felony charges, they’re not willing to do it again!

Even if you say both bases are 40%, it’s the centrist 20% who are called “swing voters” that will decide the election in a handful of states!

Sadly, although Trump lost the 2020 national popular vote by literally millions of votes, the election boiled down to a few thousand votes in a small handful of swing states.

Lord help us!

And H. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but lost in the electoral college, which has outlasted its usefulness.
But fear not.
1. Biden has only just got started and has a decent economic story to tell.
2. Reproductive rights will weigh heavily in Bidens favour.
3. All the evidence is that Independents favour not voting Trump.
4. Trump and the Republican PACS are short of cash while Biden is breaking fund raising records.
5. The false accounting/paying off a porn star case will probably be over in time with a guilty verdict.
6. Taylor Swift will swing it!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

And H. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but lost in the electoral college, which has outlasted its usefulness.
But fear not.
1. Biden has only just got started and has a decent economic story to tell.
2. Reproductive rights will weigh heavily in Bidens favour.
3. All the evidence is that Independents favour not voting Trump.
4. Trump and the Republican PACS are short of cash while Biden is breaking fund raising records.
5. The false accounting/paying off a porn star case will probably be over in time with a guilty verdict.
6. Taylor Swift will swing it!

In the last few days we have had some new data on some of these things.

The campaign finance positions and general health of the Dems v the Reps could not be more stark. Trump is spending big on legal fees and draining his resources. Trump's grift is all at the expense of traditional GOP fundraising and the party more broadly is on its arse.

Jobs data this week and Biden is smashing it. He will have such a good record to campaign on if he can keep the economy on this course.

Trump's civil fraud trial is awaiting a final decision on damages and sanctions. It's held up by Trump's FD admitting perjury and doing a deal. Trump is going to get hammerd. He has zero chance at appeal.

Taylor is well placed to win the superbowl and the GOP are trying to make a grievance out of it.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

In the last few days we have had some new data on some of these things.

The campaign finance positions and general health of the Dems v the Reps could not be more stark. Trump is spending big on legal fees and draining his resources. Trump's grift is all at the expense of traditional GOP fundraising and the party more broadly is on its arse.

Jobs data this week and Biden is smashing it. He will have such a good record to campaign on if he can keep the economy on this course.

Trump's civil fraud trial is awaiting a final decision on damages and sanctions. It's held up by Trump's FD admitting perjury and doing a deal. Trump is going to get hammerd. He has zero chance at appeal.

Taylor is well placed to win the superbowl and the GOP are trying to make a grievance out of it.

Agree, agree, well said, very thoughtful, good poi . . . HEY WAIT A MINUTE.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Taylor Swift is doing a concert in Tokyo and then flying straight back to get to the Superbowl final on a plane that says "Vote Biden"

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Taylor Swift is doing a concert in Tokyo and then flying straight back to get to the Superbowl final on a plane that says "Vote Biden"

You know she will be planning a subtle little hint of pro Biden just to set the piss a boil.