US Politics Thread

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

I figured it was a common courtesy to at least pretend to assimilate to their ways in this thread.

Never again, though.

Im increasingly sure that you arent the only one

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Im increasingly sure that you arent the only one

I use often use American spelling on social media if I'm replying to a US poster.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

A few very interesting results last night.

This seat Santos won with +7. It’s now been lost to the Dems at +8. 15 point swing.

Pennsylvania special ‘supposedly purple’ state seat (one that determined the majority in their state House) - absolutely smashed by Prokopiak winning by +35.

A district in deep red Oklahoma that went +25 in the last election… the GOP held onto it by +5.

When I say the math doesn’t math for the national polling we’re seeing. These are the kinds of things that strengthen that argument. All of the polls for these three races underestimated the Dem result by between 5-20 points. Since Roe v Wade was overturned the Dems have overperformed polling on literally almost every occasion.

I honestly think the GOP are in for a very hard reality check in November.

There is something very wrong with the polling data. So much evidence points to the GOP being in a mess yet the polling holds up fine.

To be honest it suits dems to have the polling 5 points against them. The dems have a much better ground game and they are up for the fight. The uncertainty works for them.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

There is something very wrong with the polling data. So much evidence points to the GOP being in a mess yet the polling holds up fine.

To be honest it suits dems to have the polling 5 points against them. The dems have a much better ground game and they are up for the fight. The uncertainty works for them.

Agree on both counts. I think the issue the pollsters are having (and this is total speculation) is the difference in sensibilities between Trump and Biden voters. Kind of like a Shy Tory effect. There's plenty of people who will vote for Biden as a status-quo candidate without being vocal in their support - like many did for Thatcher and then Major. I don't think there's such a thing as a shy Trump voter. They are all extremely vocal in their support, disproportionately to other candidates, I suspect. So all the modelling they're doing to suggest that people will say "Don't Know" in a poll but then turn up and vote for Trump is just not how it's panning out in practice. If you are a Don't Know at this stage, you are probably wavering between Dems, Third Party and not voting... because Trump exclusively preaches to the converted.

I think these results suggest that difference may also translate further down the ballot.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Agree on both counts. I think the issue the pollsters are having (and this is total speculation) is the difference in sensibilities between Trump and Biden voters. Kind of like a Shy Tory effect. There's plenty of people who will vote for Biden as a status-quo candidate without being vocal in their support - like many did for Thatcher and then Major. I don't think there's such a thing as a shy Trump voter. They are all extremely vocal in their support, disproportionately to other candidates, I suspect. So all the modelling they're doing to suggest that people will say "Don't Know" in a poll but then turn up and vote for Trump is just not how it's panning out in practice. If you are a Don't Know at this stage, you are probably wavering between Dems, Third Party and not voting... because Trump exclusively preaches to the converted.

I think these results suggest that difference may also translate further down the ballot.

The thing with polling is its been wrong for a number if cycles now and they should adjust. The brash loud Trump vote vs the shy Biden vote as an example was true last time and in the mid terms it's consistently over cooked the GOP vote. The GE polling was better and maybe with Trump on the ballot its more accurate. But we only get to test that every 4 years.

However it's all irrelevant at this stage. The results count and it was a great set of results for the dems. And then it's events on the ground and Trump's legal problems are still broadly on course to convict him ahead of the election. The next 4/6 weeks will be pivotal as the SCOTUS has to act now if its going to help him.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

The thing with polling is its been wrong for a number if cycles now and they should adjust. The brash loud Trump vote vs the shy Biden vote as an example was true last time and in the mid terms it's consistently over cooked the GOP vote. The GE polling was better and maybe with Trump on the ballot its more accurate. But we only get to test that every 4 years.

However it's all irrelevant at this stage. The results count and it was a great set of results for the dems. And then it's events on the ground and Trump's legal problems are still broadly on course to convict him ahead of the election. The next 4/6 weeks will be pivotal as the SCOTUS has to act now if its going to help him.

Looks like next port of call for those legal problems is Engoron's verdict which is speculated to be out on Friday. Then we might get to see how deep Trump's pockets really go.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

I use often use American spelling on social media if I'm replying to a US poster.

Didnt mean you mate

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Looks like next port of call for those legal problems is Engoron's verdict which is speculated to be out on Friday. Then we might get to see how deep Trump's pockets really go.

I suspect he's managed to make hundreds of millions from his grift over the last few years so don't see the fine troubling him. But the money is not in the Trump organisation and its likely he will have to wind up the property business. It's more a psychological blow.

There is no way he has raised hundreds of millions in political funds and not skimmed a big chunk if the top. For scale I think over 2bn was spent in the 2020 election by Trump or by pacs supporting him. How much did he pocket?

 

[Iassel]

I suspect he's managed to make hundreds of millions from his grift over the last few years so don't see the fine troubling him. But the money is not in the Trump organisation and its likely he will have to wind up the property business. It's more a psychological blow.

There is no way he has raised hundreds of millions in political funds and not skimmed a big chunk if the top. For scale I think over 2bn was spent in the 2020 election by Trump or by pacs supporting him. How much did he pocket?

I mean there is no way he has the money - he is trying Hard now to get his daughter in law the chair of the RNC with the open message that every penny nationally going forward will go directly to Trump.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I figured it was a common courtesy to at least pretend to assimilate to their ways in this thread.

Never again, though.

I assumed it was Trumpism - Math gonna math!