US Politics Thread

[TinFoilHat]

All legal commentators I've watched reckoned this would be kicked back to the original decision. Stinks of political interference

Not like a loaded GOP SCOTUS bench have any history of that....

*Cough* Gore V Bush *Cough*

 

[TinFoilHat]

It clearly fucking is...an issue of the utmost importance and cunts like Thomas just sit on their loathsome fat arses and listen to their wives for 2 months spouting even more conspiracy BS. Disgraceful
The US needs to wake up and smell the coffee this fall whether it be pro Biden or anti Trump and deliver an overwhelming message about the direction of not only their country but of the free, civilised world.

When you've got Politicians all over the world preparing their countries for the US to become like China and Russia politically you know shit is going down.

Meanwhile the apologists for him and authoritarianism in general will be using it to try another country with all their disinformation tools available.

Even a labour government might only hold that off for a term here.

 

[jim tolmies perm]

When you've got Politicians all over the world preparing their countries for the US to become like China and Russia politically you know shit is going down.

Meanwhile the apologists for him and authoritarianism in general will be using it to try another country with all their disinformation tools available.

Even a labour government might only hold that off for a term here.

A little dystopian but disconcerting nevertheless

 

[BayernMan]

The gall of this woman, whose demon spawn terrorizes her constituents..l

 

[Ohrodneyrodney]

Every single time I watch and listen to Biden speaking I’m absolutely convinced he has literally no idea what he is saying. Surely there is still some mechanism for the Democrats to get someone in who knows what day it is, to keep the crackpot out of power, or is it already too late?

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

Every single time I watch and listen to Biden speaking I’m absolutely convinced he has literally no idea what he is saying. Surely there is still some mechanism for the Democrats to get someone in who knows what day it is, to keep the crackpot out of power, or is it already too late?

Nonsense. Youve been outed as a wum and that you will rightly remain

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

It's always interesting when there's one pollster that breaks from the pack. Quinnipiac is quite well regarded, they come 19th out of 538s list of 270+ pollsters when it comes to accuracy - they have the same score as Ipsos.

Yet unlike nearly every other pollster, they have Biden holding an advantage over Trump of +4 and they have had him leading consistently for over a year now. That said, they have a chequered history, underestimating Trump's vote-share by 4-5ppt for the last two elections. Whether they've corrected their methodology since, I don't know.

2024 Election: Biden Holds On To Slight Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Gets Higher Marks On Age, Mental & Physical Fitness; Biden Does Better On Ethics, Empathy & Temperament | Quinnipiac University Poll

"A Biden-Trump split decision on physical and emotional fitness leaves both looking vulnerable. Yes, Trump wins walking away on the age and stamina question, but voters have more confidence in Biden's empathy toward them and his emotional stability to handle the job," said Quinnipiac University...

poll.qu.edu

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

Trump will not win, hes boring now and he is a fucking idiot and the silent majority are stale to it. When he won in 2016 it was a weird year all round, an abhorration actually. He is old news, just in all of it, but none of it is appealing to the normal person

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

It's always interesting when there's one pollster that breaks from the pack. Quinnipiac is quite well regarded, they come 19th out of 538s list of 270+ pollsters when it comes to accuracy - they have the same score as Ipsos.

Yet unlike nearly every other pollster, they have Biden holding an advantage over Trump of +4 and they have had him leading consistently for over a year now. That said, they have a chequered history, underestimating Trump's vote-share by 4-5ppt for the last two elections. Whether they've corrected their methodology since, I don't know.

2024 Election: Biden Holds On To Slight Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Gets Higher Marks On Age, Mental & Physical Fitness; Biden Does Better On Ethics, Empathy & Temperament | Quinnipiac University Poll

"A Biden-Trump split decision on physical and emotional fitness leaves both looking vulnerable. Yes, Trump wins walking away on the age and stamina question, but voters have more confidence in Biden's empathy toward them and his emotional stability to handle the job," said Quinnipiac University...

poll.qu.edu

A grim watch, but if you're interested in polling, perhaps worthwhile.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

A grim watch, but if you're interested in polling, perhaps worthwhile.

Interesting video, but I'm not sure about the methodology here. Adding polling error to polling that may have already been error-corrected will double count the errors, and we don't know how pollsters methodologies have changed in aggregate. We don't have enough information.

If you used this exact same methodology in 2020 (literally beat for beat exactly the same way he did it in the video), it would have predicted Trump to win because of how much the polls underestimated him in 2016. But last time the polls were only out on average by 2 points, so you'd have assumed an average polling error almost three times the size of the actual error we saw in the election.

Don't get me wrong, we're all guessing here, but this isn't any more sophisticated than just guessing with extra steps. You can't use historic error to predict future error because if we could then we wouldn't make errors in the first place, it's a bit like a form of Gambler's Fallacy.