US Politics Thread

Ohrodneyrodney said:
Every single time I watch and listen to Biden speaking I’m absolutely convinced he has literally no idea what he is saying. Surely there is still some mechanism for the Democrats to get someone in who knows what day it is, to keep the crackpot out of power, or is it already too late?
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That’s funny, I think the same thing every time I read one of your posts.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Interesting video, but I'm not sure about the methodology here. Adding polling error to polling that may have already been error-corrected will double count the errors, and we don't know how pollsters methodologies have changed in aggregate. We don't have enough information.

If you used this exact same methodology in 2020 (literally beat for beat exactly the same way he did it in the video), it would have predicted Trump to win because of how much the polls underestimated him in 2016. But last time the polls were only out on average by 2 points, so you'd have assumed an average polling error almost three times the size of the actual error we saw in the election.

Don't get me wrong, we're all guessing here, but this isn't any more sophisticated than just guessing with extra steps. You can't use historic error to predict future error because if we could then we wouldn't make errors in the first place, it's a bit like a form of Gambler's Fallacy.
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Very well stated by you, one of the posters who has regularly pointed out Trump’s underperformance in nearly every poll during the primaries.

I continue to believe the “silent and angry” boot is on the other foot this time.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Interesting video, but I'm not sure about the methodology here. Adding polling error to polling that may have already been error-corrected will double count the errors, and we don't know how pollsters methodologies have changed in aggregate. We don't have enough information.

If you used this exact same methodology in 2020 (literally beat for beat exactly the same way he did it in the video), it would have predicted Trump to win because of how much the polls underestimated him in 2016. But last time the polls were only out on average by 2 points, so you'd have assumed an average polling error almost three times the size of the actual error we saw in the election.

Don't get me wrong, we're all guessing here, but this isn't any more sophisticated than just guessing with extra steps. You can't use historic error to predict future error because if we could then we wouldn't make errors in the first place, it's a bit like a form of Gambler's Fallacy.
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Agree - the methodology employed is unscientific at best and he fails to disclose his "weighting factor" (hence my caveat "perhaps worthwhile"). At any rate, Trump is ahead in most polls; most polls, apparently, aren't wildly off, historically, in predicting election outcomes; I'd have to look through the video once more but I think that most polling was within 5% or so and furthermore, most discrepancies in polling were in favor of Democrats which makes current polling even worse for Biden.

We're a long way out from election day and the known unknowns and especially the unknown unknowns will likely dictate the ultimate result.

One thing's for sure though - I'm damn glad that election day isn't tomorrow.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Very well stated by you, one of the posters who has regularly pointed out Trump’s underperformance in nearly every poll during the primaries.

I continue to believe the “silent and angry” boot is on the other foot this time.
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Agree I took some comfort from an interview that the mooch did where he says Trump can not win as he is so deeply hated by so many moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Especially women. He has zero chance with these people.

You also have to factor in the absolutely devastating attack adds the dems will run.

There is a lot of anger and the dems can tap into that anger.
 
If Muslims and Jews decide not to vote for Biden this time due to Israel and Trump gets in (which I don’t think he will), none of them will be able to say they weren’t told this sort of thing would happen:

 
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Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Agree I took some comfort from an interview that the mooch did where he says Trump can not win as he is so deeply hated by so many moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Especially women. He has zero chance with these people.

You also have to factor in the absolutely devastating attack adds the dems will run.

There is a lot of anger and the dems can tap into that anger.
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I've posted the same sort of comment as the one that follows numerous times; it feels like I'm beating a dead horse, LOL. Nonetheless... once more unto the breach, dear friends...

If it's true that Trump has absolutely no chance, then you must accept that pollsters are completely inept.

I don't believe that polling is wildly off.

Moreover, if Trump has no chance, then bettors are dead wrong as well: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insi...024-exploring-the-odds-and-potential-outcomes

I take solace in the fact that we're so far out from election day that there's every chance that odds will swing back once more in favor of Biden. But honestly, if we had to vote for the US President tomorrow, then it's Biden - not Trump - who would have very little chance.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Agree - the methodology employed is unscientific at best and he fails to disclose his "weighting factor" (hence my caveat "perhaps worthwhile"). At any rate, Trump is ahead in most polls; most polls, apparently, aren't wildly off, historically, in predicting election outcomes; I'd have to look through the video once more but I think that most polling was within 5% or so and furthermore, most discrepancies in polling were in favor of Democrats which makes current polling even worse for Biden.

We're a long way out from election day and the known unknowns and especially the unknown unknowns will likely dictate the ultimate result.

One thing's for sure though - I'm damn glad that election day isn't tomorrow.
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You’re right, most of the swing states are going to be very close. Do I believe all the pollsters are way out? No but, I do believe in one axiom and have stuck with it throughout - that Trump is not increasing his absolute volume of votes. He is not changing minds. He might get the same votes as last time (I think even that’s a stretch).

Therefore the lead he has on Biden in key states currently at 3-5pts is being caused by uncertainty and low committal over Biden. But when push comes to shove people are going to stop their complaining and get in the voting booths and vote Biden to keep Trump out like they did last time. I predict you’ll see the gap close as these things solidify towards election day.

At the moment there’s a group of people out there who don’t want to admit they’ll vote for Biden because he’s seen as weak/old etc… but they will.
 
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