On that occasion it was the southern states wanting to break away from the Union. If and when it happens, I believe it would be the wealthier, coastal states (and those that abut them) that will eventually have had enough and want to call it a day. Could see it splitting in a much more complex geographical pattern than 160 or so years ago.
It will inevitably involve a degree of migration, like in the Indian sub-continent in the 1940’s, but not as pronounced, although probably just as bitter.
I think the second amendment will be a factor too, as well as the electoral college if it delivers government over a sustained period against the wishes of the majority, and the voters of those coastal states and their neighbours.
Don’t think it will happen anytime soon, and I agree it’s nowhere near as binary as it was in the mid-19th century (tbf the world is hugely more complex now than it was then) but I think the divisions in the country are too great for a fracture to be less than likely to occur.
I've said this before btw, and some folk dismissed the notion out of hand, but global events in the last four years make predicting such a thing with any great certainty, foolish imo.
And maybe it was inevitable. Maybe the end of the civil war put a sticking plaster (albeit a long lasting one) over a profound dichotomy of social philosophy between regions in the US that greater technology and means of communication would eventually expose and cause those divisions In American society to recrudesce to an extent that made them, once again, manifest themselves dramatically and profoundly. There certainly seems enough hate and anger atm, for that to be, at the very least, a realistic prospect, surely.
And maybe social media is the catalyst, not the cause.
Ironically it Thomas Di Lorenzo's book "The Real Lincoln" he describes Abraham Lincoln as a Fascist, the Dictatorial great centraliser who dedicated his career to arranging a corrupt system of high tariffs and corporate subsidies. Using Godwin's law to make a point, Hitler in Mein Kampf used Lincolns suppression of southern states rights to justify the suppression of German states rights. He goes on to write The Confederacy railed against these corporate subsidies and high tariffs and that the Civil war was never about slavery, but about abuse of power and imposition of decrees from on high.
Admittedly Di Lorenzo is fellow of the Mises Institute, a think tank based in Alabama which was named after the Austrian school of Economics guru Ludwig Von Mises, an early advocate of Neo-Liberalism.
The Mises institute wrote about Trump and this is interesting
"The Bush/Clinton/Obama axis represented the worst profligacies of the managerial state, every bit as illiberal as Trump could ever pretend to be. That axis needed to be repudiated. It was never about Trump or his advisors or his policies; it was about an opportunity for 60 million Americans to go off-script and vote against the coronation of Clinton Part II."
There are echoes of what Di Lorenzo wrote about Lincoln and the style of Government employed by Trump.
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"Some Americans just wanted a person to make a stand against left academia, left media, and the secularist rout. They didn't care if that stance came with a graceless demeanour in fact, they preferred it. Cultural and social issues were a mainstay of Trump's 2016 coalition, but not in the sense they were for Pat Buchanan in 1996 or for social conservatives generally. Trump is not animated by religion or abortion; he is comfortable in cosmopolitan and diverse New York circles, and has little interest in relitigating gay marriage or similar battles. But he did promise to stand against campus radicalism, cancel culture, and the general perception of hostility toward middle America emanating from the Left, particularly the media. Yet all of these things have become worse, not better, since Trump took office. In fact, the
reaction to Trump has emboldened Socialists and Marxists to abandon incrementalism and demand wholesale revolution in America, right here and now. Antifa and Black Lives Matter, with open support from media, politicians, and corporate America, condone if not engineer riots and looting in cities. Christian Middle America feels
less secure after four years of Trump, not more. All of this has happened under Trump's watch."
Above is an abridged version of an article I read yesterday from the Mises Institute.