US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[The perfect fumble]

I have a reasonable (if fairly basic) understanding of the history of Russia’s relationship Ukraine - and vice versa, although I would suggest anti Russian sentiment in the unoccupied parts of Ukraine is at its apogee right now and with the advances in drone technology and guerrilla warfare in recent years I’m not sure it was be quite as straightforward as Russia simply rolling in.

With Zelensky gone, and the political chaos that would ensue, what kind of command and control would exist? What kind of armed services would Ukraine even have? What level of political control would exist in post Zelensky Kyiv? And what level of international support? As for guerrilla warfare, that might happen, it might make the occupation bloody but it won't end it.

Let's be frank, the Ukraine is slowly losing this war, and even if you disagree with me, no one believes she's winning. Even before Trump, support for this war was on the wane in the west, this is the reality of the situation.

Putin didn't wage this war to liberate the Russian majority provinces in Ukraine, he waged it to bring Ukraine back into the fold and If Trump imposes a settlement that is exactly what will happen.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I've already criticised it, and frankly I thought it would be a given that a crowd of blokes abusing a girl is wrong.

You’re in a huff because you think somehow people here don’t understand that this behavior is driven by being talked down to. We do understand — that’s no excuse. You have never once criticized that as a driver to the behavior.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

With Zelensky gone, and the political chaos that would ensue, what kind of command and control would exist? What kind of armed services would Ukraine even have? What level of political control would exist in post Zelensky Kyiv? And what level of international support? As for guerrilla warfare, that might happen, it might make the occupation bloody but it won't end it.

Let's be frank, the Ukraine is slowly losing this war, and even if you disagree with me, no one believes she's winning. Even before Trump, support for this war was on the wane in the west, this is the reality of the situation.

Putin didn't wage this war to liberate the Russian majority provinces in Ukraine, he waged it to bring Ukraine back into the fold and If Trump imposes a settlement that is exactly what will happen.

Your scenario in your final paragraph is perfectly plausible, but not a fait accompli. You are making many assumptions which are presently unknown, not least the rest of NATO’s attitude to any US brokered deal. As I said previously there may have to be a major realignment in Europe’s relationship with the US, part of which will be the US having less say with what happens with Ukraine, especially given Russia’s manifest weakened military state, given they are now deploying North Korean forces.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Anyone noticed that all Trump's foreign policies seem to align with Putin's, whose foreign policies in turn seem to be in place to enrich his oligarch mates?

It's uncanny

Absolutely this. I think the deportations etc are a huge smokescreen for big business friendly deregulation which suits his many billionaire supporters perfectly. I'm sure there will be populist red meat thrown to the masses in some fashion, but the main aim will be to enrich the rich.

 

[bluesteel]

Musk has got Trump in his pocket. As long as Musk keeps enriching Trump, Trump will let Musk dictate government policy, which will be bad for everyone except billionaires in his inner circle. Musk has got everything in place to take over the richest most powerful country in the world with Trump as his useful idiot to enact the policies that he wants in exchange for money. Call it hyperbole if you want but that’s how it looks to me. Hope I’m wrong.

I think Musk is outraged that his son transitioned to a woman, he clearly doesn’t agree with it and I’m not sure he wants to control much other than it not happening to other fathers.

I’m pretty sure it’s not money he wants, else he wouldn’t have bought Twitter.

 

[threespires]

Who’s next do you think? Moldova?

Well Transnistria has been providing a pretext for decades but despite extensive Russian interference, Moldava has just made it pretty clear in their recent elections which trajectory it wants to pursue so the west abandons them at their peril. The CSIS has made it clear where it thinks US interests lie in this. What Putin tries to do next there and how Trump responds will tell us an awful lot, if Russia does anything more than maintain it's current strategy it will be very worrying (not that it isn't worrying anyway).

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Absolutely this. I think the deportations etc are a huge smokescreen for big business friendly deregulation which suits his many billionaire supporters perfectly. I'm sure there will be populist red meat thrown to the masses in some fashion, but the main aim will be to enrich the rich.

“Mass deportations” if they happen are likely to create problems in the ag and housing industries in the U.S. among others. But they don’t even need to happen. The rhetoric is hurting those businesses anyhow. The pretend ICE vans are already driving around, apparently by those who felt “talked down to” so they think it’s funny to scare some framers and farmworkers.

 

[Rory Bluelow]

With Zelensky gone, and the political chaos that would ensue, what kind of command and control would exist? What kind of armed services would Ukraine even have? What level of political control would exist in post Zelensky Kyiv? And what level of international support? As for guerrilla warfare, that might happen, it might make the occupation bloody but it won't end it.

Let's be frank, the Ukraine is slowly losing this war, and even if you disagree with me, no one believes she's winning. Even before Trump, support for this war was on the wane in the west, this is the reality of the situation.

Putin didn't wage this war to liberate the Russian majority provinces in Ukraine, he waged it to bring Ukraine back into the fold and If Trump imposes a settlement that is exactly what will happen.

This war was always predicated to end in a “land for peace deal” however unpalatable that may be. Western support has been essential because without it, Ukraine would have been totally lost. The Crimea and parts of the Eastern borderlands were almost entirely seeded with ethnic Russians back in the Soviet days - who will never properly integrate into the Ukraine nation state. Realpolitik will redraw the border to stop the conflict and hopefully the West will provide sufficient defensive infrastructure to deter Putin - who will not be satisfied with this compromise deal but I would expect him to bank it. He will not live forever and who knows what the future holds.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

This war was always predicated to end in a “land for peace deal” however unpalatable that may be. Western support has been essential because without it, Ukraine would have been totally lost. The Crimea and parts of the Eastern borderlands were almost entirely seeded with ethnic Russians back in the Soviet days - who will never properly integrate into the Ukraine nation state. Realpolitik will redraw the border to stop the conflict and hopefully the West will provide sufficient defensive infrastructure to deter Putin - who will not be satisfied with this compromise deal but I would expect him to bank it. He will not live forever and who knows what the future holds.

It’s not just about defensive infrastructure but also meaningful security guarantees.

 

[Rory Bluelow]

It’s not just about defensive infrastructure but also meaningful security guarantees.

Totally agree.