We can still qualify and it is very possible

Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

Matty said:
If we draw then we need CSKA and Roma to draw, that would put us 3 points behind both, so we'd need to beat Roma in the last game, and CSKA would need to lose to Bayern for us to qualify. As CSKA, City and Roma, in that scenario, would all be on 6 points, then head to head results can't be used (we'd have a better head to head against Roma, but worse against CSKA, Roma would have a better head to head than CSKA but worse against City, and CSKA would have a better head to head against City, but worse against Roma) so it would go down to goal difference. We'd go into the Roma game on -2 Goal Difference, whereas Roma and CSKA would have -4 each. Even if we only win 1-0, and CSKA only lose 1-0, then that would be enough for us to be 2nd, with 6 points and a -1 GD, Roma and CSKA would also have 6 points, but both would have a -5 GD.

So, ideally we need to beat Bayern, but a draw, dependent upon the result in Moscow, would be enough. A defeat sees us out regardless.

We'll actually know, pre-kick off, if a draw is good enough or not as CSKA V Roma is a 5pm kickoff so will have finished by the time we start against Bayern.
Click to expand...

It doesn't go straight to gd Matty iirc, the results against Bayern get taken out and it's assessed on a 3 way head to head, meaning we'd need to beat Roma by 3.

Roma pts 5 gd +4
MCFC pts 5 gd - 1
CSKA pts 5 gd - 3

So we need a 3 goal swing. We're better off just being in a head to head with Roma as 1-1 puts us through on gd after their Munich hammering, 2-2 and over puts us through on away goals.
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

Matty said:
If we draw then we need CSKA and Roma to draw, that would put us 3 points behind both, so we'd need to beat Roma in the last game, and CSKA would need to lose to Bayern for us to qualify. As CSKA, City and Roma, in that scenario, would all be on 6 points, then head to head results can't be used (we'd have a better head to head against Roma, but worse against CSKA, Roma would have a better head to head than CSKA but worse against City, and CSKA would have a better head to head against City, but worse against Roma) so it would go down to goal difference. We'd go into the Roma game on -2 Goal Difference, whereas Roma and CSKA would have -4 each. Even if we only win 1-0, and CSKA only lose 1-0, then that would be enough for us to be 2nd, with 6 points and a -1 GD, Roma and CSKA would also have 6 points, but both would have a -5 GD.

So, ideally we need to beat Bayern, but a draw, dependent upon the result in Moscow, would be enough. A defeat sees us out regardless.

We'll actually know, pre-kick off, if a draw is good enough or not as CSKA V Roma is a 5pm kickoff so will have finished by the time we start against Bayern.
Click to expand...


Nope. We'd be 2 points behind still if we drew and they drew.

I think we can actually lose tonight and still go through if CSKA and Roma draw. We'd just have to then win in Rome by 3 goals and Bayern do CSKA at home.
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

aguero93:20 said:
Matty said:
If we draw then we need CSKA and Roma to draw, that would put us 3 points behind both, so we'd need to beat Roma in the last game, and CSKA would need to lose to Bayern for us to qualify. As CSKA, City and Roma, in that scenario, would all be on 6 points, then head to head results can't be used (we'd have a better head to head against Roma, but worse against CSKA, Roma would have a better head to head than CSKA but worse against City, and CSKA would have a better head to head against City, but worse against Roma) so it would go down to goal difference. We'd go into the Roma game on -2 Goal Difference, whereas Roma and CSKA would have -4 each. Even if we only win 1-0, and CSKA only lose 1-0, then that would be enough for us to be 2nd, with 6 points and a -1 GD, Roma and CSKA would also have 6 points, but both would have a -5 GD.

So, ideally we need to beat Bayern, but a draw, dependent upon the result in Moscow, would be enough. A defeat sees us out regardless.

We'll actually know, pre-kick off, if a draw is good enough or not as CSKA V Roma is a 5pm kickoff so will have finished by the time we start against Bayern.
Click to expand...

It doesn't go straight to gd Matty iirc, the results against Bayern get taken out and it's assessed on a 3 way head to head, meaning we'd need to beat Roma by 3.

Roma pts 5 gd +4
MCFC pts 5 gd - 1
CSKA pts 5 gd - 3

So we need a 3 goal swing. We're better off just being in a head to head with Roma as 1-1 puts us through on gd after their Munich hammering, 2-2 and over puts us through on away goals.
Click to expand...
Just noticed that, didn't realise the Bayern games were discounted if all 3 of us have the same points. We're struggling because Roma battered CSKA 5-1 so their goal difference would be +4 in that scenario as you say. We'd need to win by 3 clear goals, which is a big ask so, although a draw means mathematically we'd still be in with a shout of qualifying, in reality it would be a long shot for us to do so. Lets face it, if we've gone 5 games without a single win what are the chances we win our 6th game by 3 clear goals?!
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

GX Blue said:
Matty said:
If we draw then we need CSKA and Roma to draw, that would put us 3 points behind both, so we'd need to beat Roma in the last game, and CSKA would need to lose to Bayern for us to qualify. As CSKA, City and Roma, in that scenario, would all be on 6 points, then head to head results can't be used (we'd have a better head to head against Roma, but worse against CSKA, Roma would have a better head to head than CSKA but worse against City, and CSKA would have a better head to head against City, but worse against Roma) so it would go down to goal difference. We'd go into the Roma game on -2 Goal Difference, whereas Roma and CSKA would have -4 each. Even if we only win 1-0, and CSKA only lose 1-0, then that would be enough for us to be 2nd, with 6 points and a -1 GD, Roma and CSKA would also have 6 points, but both would have a -5 GD.

So, ideally we need to beat Bayern, but a draw, dependent upon the result in Moscow, would be enough. A defeat sees us out regardless.

We'll actually know, pre-kick off, if a draw is good enough or not as CSKA V Roma is a 5pm kickoff so will have finished by the time we start against Bayern.
Click to expand...


Nope. We'd be 2 points behind still if we drew and they drew.

I think we can actually lose tonight and still go through if CSKA and Roma draw. We'd just have to then win in Rome and Bayern do CSKA at home.
Click to expand...
Fuck me, how have I managed to add up the fucking points wrongly?!!

You are, or course, correct. If both games were to end in a draw today then City would have 3 points whereas CSKA and Roma would have 5 points apiece. If that scenario occured then, providing Bayern beat CSKA at the Allianz then any kind of win against Roma would be sufficient, as we'd have 6 points and CSKA and Roma just the 5.

This actually means, if CSKA and Roma draw in the early game, City can afford to go for the broke against Bayern, as the penalty for losing as opposed to drawing, isn't too severe. Lose or draw doesn't matter, if CSKA lose to Munich, and we beat Roma (albeit by 3 clear goals), we finish 2nd. Unless I've got that wrong too?!!!
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

drthingy said:
So if cska win is that us out?
Click to expand...

Not if we win both games and Bayern beat CSKA, those results would put us on 8 points and CSKA on 7.
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

drthingy said:
So if cska win is that us out?
Click to expand...

If CSKA beat Roma (or if Roma beat CSKA for that matter) then City need to beat Bayern, or we're out. A win for either side puts them on 7 points, so we'd need to beat Bayern so we went into the final games on 5 points. If Roma beat CSKA, and we beat Bayern, then our fate is in our own hands. Beat Roma in Rome and we qualify. If CSKA beat Roma then we need Bayern to do us a favour, and beat Moscow, whilst we would still need to beat Roma. If CSKA beat Roma, and avoid defeat against Bayern then City are out, regardless of our results, as our head to head against CSKA is in their favour, not ours.
 
Re: Sky Sports Maths ???

And they all fucking laughed at Pellers getting his maths wrong last year.
The metro actually printed the table under "Did you know that city won't qualify even if the beat Bayern - if CSKA and Roma Draw"
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.