Will we win the Prem / Title still possible (merged)

[lasereyes]

Re: Title still possible

I was gutted after Liverpool, and down after Sunderland, but I'm not sure why we're giving up so soon.

Our form isn't bad at all - Sunderland was the only dodgy result recently - it's not inconceivable at all that we win out from here.

If that happens Liverpool need to lose ONE game in four and we can overtake them on goal difference (we'll still likely be ahead if we win five).

If that happens Chelsea need to draw ONE game and we'll overtake them.

In 2011/12 with five games left we needed Utd to drop at least two points AND to beat them at the Etihad (and remember we played them 3 times at home in 2012 and they beat us twice, so this was not an easy task).

I realise that it's tough for us to win five in a row - but it's only a couple of weeks since we had a four match run of Stoke, Hull, Fulham and United.

I know we're relying on TWO teams to drop points, but we know one of them will as they play each other. So really we just need one game to go our way and Chelsea have had worse results than us recently (considering who they have played) while Liverpool have come very close to dropping points in three of their last four matches.

I think 86 points will more likely than not be good enough to win the league - and there's no reason to give up on that.

One thing is nigh certain - 86pts nets us second place. And I think second is a whole lot better than third and would set us up well for next season.

 

[bluenova]

Re: Title still possible

I was gutted after Liverpool, and down after Sunderland, but I'm not sure why we're giving up so soon.

Our form isn't bad at all - Sunderland was the only dodgy result recently - it's not inconceivable at all that we win out from here.

If that happens Liverpool need to lose ONE game in four and we can overtake them on goal difference (we'll still likely be ahead if we win five).

If that happens Chelsea need to draw ONE game and we'll overtake them.

In 2011/12 with five games left we needed Utd to drop at least two points AND to beat them at the Etihad (and remember we played them 3 times at home in 2012 and they beat us twice, so this was not an easy task).

I realise that it's tough for us to win five in a row - but it's only a couple of weeks since we had a four match run of Stoke, Hull, Fulham and United.

I know we're relying on TWO teams to drop points, but we know one of them will as they play each other. So really we just need one game to go our way and Chelsea have had worse results than us recently (considering who they have played) while Liverpool have come very close to dropping points in three of their last four matches.

I think 86 points will more likely than not be good enough to win the league - and there's no reason to give up on that.

One thing is nigh certain - 86pts nets us second place. And I think second is a whole lot better than third and would set us up well for next season.

It's also interesting that United were on an arguably better run that Liverpool are on now when they had their wobble in 2011/12.

We're deffo third favourites, but a win this time round is a lot more likely than it was a couple of years ago.

 

[John Wayne]

Re: Title still possible

We have to still believe. Everyone pretty well knows the script but I'll outline what I think we need to happen for us to win the league:-

1) Goes without saying but we need to win every game we have left. We need Silva back by Monday and Toure by the time we roll out at Selhurst Park.

2) Norwich must pick up something on Sunday. If the tide is to turn then we need it to start this weekend. A win for Liverpool at Norwich just keeps the momentum going and they head into the crunch Chelsea match with confidence.

3) If Norwich beat Liverpool then we could do with Liverpool either a) beating Chelsea, or b) at least drawing with Chelsea. If Liverpool beat Norwich then we need Chelsea to do vice versa, but if Chelsea only draw with Liverpool then this scenario means we are praying for Palace to provide us with a miracle a week later. If Norwich draw with Liverpool then a draw in the Liverpool-Chelsea match would be great.

Put simply, if Liverpool win their next two matches then I'm convinced they will win the league. There is absolutely no chance of Newcastle getting anything at Anfield on the final day. I'm pretty sure Liverpool will win the league, which is a cause of great distress to me. I may go out and stick £100 on it so at least I can make some money in the process. The fucking arrogant bastard Liverpool fans with whom I work have already booked 12th May off in anticipation of a civic parade so seeing it go tits up for them is well worth £100.

 

[the god Gerry Gow]

Re: Title still possible

I was gutted after Liverpool, and down after Sunderland, but I'm not sure why we're giving up so soon.

Our form isn't bad at all - Sunderland was the only dodgy result recently - it's not inconceivable at all that we win out from here.

If that happens Liverpool need to lose ONE game in four and we can overtake them on goal difference (we'll still likely be ahead if we win five).

If that happens Chelsea need to draw ONE game and we'll overtake them.

In 2011/12 with five games left we needed Utd to drop at least two points AND to beat them at the Etihad (and remember we played them 3 times at home in 2012 and they beat us twice, so this was not an easy task).

I realise that it's tough for us to win five in a row - but it's only a couple of weeks since we had a four match run of Stoke, Hull, Fulham and United.

I know we're relying on TWO teams to drop points, but we know one of them will as they play each other. So really we just need one game to go our way and Chelsea have had worse results than us recently (considering who they have played) while Liverpool have come very close to dropping points in three of their last four matches.

I think 86 points will more likely than not be good enough to win the league - and there's no reason to give up on that.

Been thinking all this myself but didn't feel confident to express it on here. Especially as months ago posted that I didn't think we would win it.

Still not 100% that we can win our 5 games as we seem to be mentally on the beaches but it is certainly not that much more difficult than it was on weds morn

 

[prestonibbo_mcfc]

Re: Title still possible

Sorry but I have given up. I'm not going to waste any more time trying to calculate if's, but's and maybe's.
The Sunderland result has traumatised me. I can no longer see anything positive in football.
I can't believe I have wasted 45 years in this futile hobby.

 

[kevodevo]

Re: Title still possible

Sorry but I have given up. I'm not going to waste any more time trying to calculate if's, but's and maybe's.
The Sunderland result has traumatised me. I can no longer see anything positive in football.
I can't believe I have wasted 45 years in this futile hobby.

Bet you were feeling the same two years ago at 1-2 to QPR!
See how that turned out!
It can still turn and after 2012 nothing is impossible with City!!!!

 

[Londonblue20]

Re: Title still possible

If we win all our games (a big if, granted). than a conceivable scenario is that Chelsea beat Liverpool and then have to go to Cardiff on the last day to get a win to win the league. We know how that feels. If Cardiff are relegated by that time, then we can forget it it, but if by some miracle they are fighting to stay up, then there is a prayer of a hope.

So what's the chance of that all happening?

Us to win all out remaining games? 20% chance.
Chelsea to beat Liverpool? 30%
Cardiff to be stiil in it? 10%
Chelsea to drop points against Cardiff 20%

So overall? 20% x 30% x 10% x 20% = We have a 0.12% chance of being Champions! Or to put it another way, 833 to 1 against.

Believe :-) LOL


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ChippyBoy...Love the stats but there are some fundamental challenges to this.

Your analysis above only considers one set of results.
Also the Cardiff v Chelsea 10% and 20% are interdependent as and you're effectively saying Cardiff to beat Chelsea is only 10% x 20% = 2%; it's probably a bit higher than that.

However another combination for us to win it is also

City to win all 5 - go with your 20%
Liverpool to draw or lose v Norwich - 30%
Liverpool to draw with Chelsea 30%
Then it's (only) 20% x 30% x 30% = 1.8% or approx 55/1 so a much better chance than your figures.

There are also a whole lot more other combinations for us to win it and you have to add them all together to work out the total probability so it's probably closer to the bookies at 6/1.
Still against us but there are several possible combinations so you never know.
HOPE AND BELIEVE[/color][/color]

 

[madden150]

Re: Title still possible

We have to still believe. Everyone pretty well knows the script but I'll outline what I think we need to happen for us to win the league:-

1) Goes without saying but we need to win every game we have left. We need Silva back by Monday and Toure by the time we roll out at Selhurst Park.

2) Norwich must pick up something on Sunday. If the tide is to turn then we need it to start this weekend. A win for Liverpool at Norwich just keeps the momentum going and they head into the crunch Chelsea match with confidence.

3) If Norwich beat Liverpool then we could do with Liverpool either a) beating Chelsea, or b) at least drawing with Chelsea. If Liverpool beat Norwich then we need Chelsea to do vice versa, but if Chelsea only draw with Liverpool then this scenario means we are praying for Palace to provide us with a miracle a week later. If Norwich draw with Liverpool then a draw in the Liverpool-Chelsea match would be great.

Put simply, if Liverpool win their next two matches then I'm convinced they will win the league. There is absolutely no chance of Newcastle getting anything at Anfield on the final day. I'm pretty sure Liverpool will win the league, which is a cause of great distress to me. I may go out and stick £100 on it so at least I can make some money in the process. The fucking arrogant bastard Liverpool fans with whom I work have already booked 12th May off in anticipation of a civic parade so seeing it go tits up for them is well worth £100.

[]

This is the thing that really gets under my skin. Throughout the 2012 season when we were flying at the top, not once did I ever state that we were going to win the league. We were playing well and inside you hoped, but as a fan you just knew that anything could happen, especially with City. It was amazing the way we eventually won it but at no point (even before QPR) would I ever dream of spouting that we were going be champions, gloating before anything was even won. If it was Utd fans that were patting themselves on the back a few weeks before the end of the season you'd have to say well, they've done it that many times before so they probably will win the league, but Liverpool??? Haven't won in 25 years, haven't really come close and they start going on like complete c#t$, im not having that. Horrible, cocky, deluded set of people. I pray to God we wipe the floor with them in the years to come!!!!

 

[tiggsywiggsywoo]

Re: Title still possible

You can believe all you want. The truth is this team's not up for it. Proof......Sunderland!!!!

 

[ped]

Re: Title still possible

You can believe all you want. The truth is this team's not up for it. Proof......Sunderland!!!!

if Liverpool or Chelsea, let us back in the driving seat,we will not be moved,i aint losing hope yet,