with the CL draw almost upon us

[squirtyflower]

I really don't see why everyone is getting so excited about tomorrow's draw when we have the Capital One Cup draw later tonight

Very true, and I want an away trip to Accrington, Morecambe, Rotherham or Stevenage (assuming any of them win tonight) as I've never seen City on any of their grounds, or Peterborough at home as I've only ever seen us play them at their place.

i haven't seen those four teams play City either

or failing them, Burnley away, only five miles up the road and like going to a third world country

 

[East Level 2]

Back to the CL and Zenit are through having beaten Pacos Ferreira 4-2 tonight and 8-3 on aggregate.
The other remaining qualifying games are:

AC Milan v PSV Eindhoven - 1st leg 1-1
Celtic v Shakhter Karagandy - 1st leg 0-2
NK Maribor v Plzen - 1st leg 1-3
Real Sociedad v Lyon - 1st leg 2-0

 

[Stoned Rose]

The key is the split of the draw into two halves. So City/rags, Chelsea/Arse, Bayern/Dortmund/, Real/Barca and Porto/Benfica will all be in separate halves of the draw so their nearest domestic rivals don't have clashing TV dates. Based on the above likely seedings this means that one of City's pot 1 teams will be Chelsea or Arsenal. So that leaves City with either Bayern, Barca/Real or Porto/Benfica as their pot 1 team. If City draw Bayern or are in pot 3 we won't get Dortmund. If we draw Barca or Real we won't get Atletico Madrid. Any draw except AC Milan or Juventus from pot 2 can give us Napoli from pot 4. The one to avoid is PSG from pot 2 which City or any pot 1 team in the same half of the draw could get.

Don't forget it was this split halves of the draw that stitched us up last year. We got Dortmund as our pot 4 team simply because Bayern were in the other half of the draw and left Chelsea and the rags (who were in Bayern's half) with Norsdsjaelland and Cluj respectively. As far as Dortmund were concerned there was simply no other group left that they could be drawn in.

I don't hold with the "I don't care who we get. Bring 'em on" school of thought. That's what we got the last two seasons. I'd much prefer a winnable group than another group of death.

I'd happily settle for Porto, Olympiacos and Viktoria Plzen/Maribor. I'd hate to see us get the likes of Barca, PSG and Napoli.

I think because of Porto and Benfica both being in Pot 1 this year that Bayern have to be in our half of the draw so therefore we can't get Dortmund regardless of what happens.

We should go on the assumption that AC Milan will go through. This will mean that for arguments sake we go into the Blue half of the draw(colours are irrelevant really), our Pot 1 candidates would be Real/Barca, Bayern, Porto/Benfica.

Let's say Red is Groups A-D, and blue is E-F.

The 4 red would be Barca/Real, United, Arsenal/Chelsea, Benfica/Porto.
The 4 blue would be Barca/Real, Bayern, Arsenal/Chelsea, Benfica/Porto.

It's really neither here nor there for the Portuguese teams, but I have an inkling on Barca so reckon they'd be in our half of the draw. I also think Chelsea will be in our half as they are a stronger draw and I don't think TV would want United & Chelsea on the same night. So I'd go for:

Red A: Real, B: United, C: Porto, D: Arsenal.
Blue E: Barcelona, F: Chelsea, G: Bayern, H: Benfica.

If you go into Pot 2 by AC getting through they would have to be seperate from Juventus. PSG would have to be seperate from Marseille and CSKA Moskva would go into the opposite group from Zenit. I think Sociedad are knocking out Lyon so Juventus would be in Pot 2, Zenit in Pot 3.

Thus you have to look at the most marketable Pot 2 teams. PSG and Juventus are strong, as are Shakhtar. Marseille are Pot 1 fodder as are CSKA Moskva, Atletico I reckon would go into a different half from Real out of principle, Schalke would go in Bayern's half imo.

So you sum that up:

Red: Marseille, Juventus, CSKA Moskva, Shakhtar.
Blue: PSG, AC Milan, Atletico, Schalke.

So drawing logically from that you get:

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva
B: United, Marseille,
C: Porto, Juventus,
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar,

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan,
F: Chelsea, Schalke,
G: Bayern, Atletico
H: Benfica, PSG,

Onto Pot 3 and by virtue of CSKA Moskva being Red Zenit would be in the blue half. As United are Red we would be blue and Dortmund would be red as Bayern are blue. I believe if Sociedad knock out Lyon then Leverkusen go into 3 which would mean they go into red with Dortmund.

Red: Dortmund, Olympiakos, Ajax, Leverkusen.
Blue: Zenit, Man City, Galatasaray, Basel.

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva, Olympiakos,
B: United, Marseille, Dortmund,
C: Porto, Juventus, Leverkusen,
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar, Ajax

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan, Man City,
F: Chelsea, Schalke, Zenit,
G: Bayern, Atletico, Basel,
H: Benfica, PSG, Galatasaray,

Onto D and I think the only seeding would be Sociedad in Red as Atletico are blue, the rest would be unseeded.

Red: Real Sociedad, Napoli, Austria Wien, Steaua.
Blue: Shakhter Karagandy, Viktoria Plzen, FC Kobenhavn, Anderlecht.

Red A: Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva, Olympiakos, Napoli.
B: United, Marseille, Dortmund, Austria Wien.
C: Porto, Juventus, Leverkusen, Steaua.
D: Arsenal, Shakhtar, Ajax, Real Sociedad.

Blue
E: Barcelona, AC Milan, Man City, Anderlecht.
F: Chelsea, Schalke, Zenit, FC Kobenhavn.
G: Bayern, Atletico, Basel, Viktoria Plzen.
H: Benfica, PSG, Galatasaray, Shakhter Karagandy.

I know that's mostly guesswork but working on the basis that UEFA will want its big money makers through then Real and Napoli should go through in A if they see off CSKA, United would have Dortmund but should see off Marseille, Juventus, Porto and Leverkusen would fight for Last 16 berths(UEFA won't mind too much who goes through), Arsenal & Shakhtar should dispose of Ajax and Sociedad. In our half it would be a battle between us and AC for 2nd, Chelsea would go through with a decent team, Bayern & Atletico would expect to go through and PSG would go through with either Benfica or Galatasaray. I think although it won't be exactly like that I think with the permutations it could end up quite similar to that.

And people say it isn´t bent - excellent work my friend. When this pops out tomorrow I will post this directly to UEFA website and ask them why they wasted a fookin fortune putting this scam of a draw together in the first place

If we got that group I'd be happy we'd qualify.

Arsenal on the other hand would be shitting their knickers.

 

[cleavers]

and that's where some slight rigging occurs
they should split it after the draw and not before it
it's possible for City/United and Bayern/Dortmund to play on different nights

I agree, but would it be possible given all the they can't play them and they can't play on the same night as them permutations? And do UEFA want to make it more fair?

All the teams in the same group have to play on the same night, that was why Dortmund had to be "placed" in our group last time out, and the groups play A B C on one night, and D E F on another (or is it A C E, and B D F ?).

Its certainly rigged, however you look at it. Its rigged to suit the elite clubs by the pots not going on league positions (arsenal should not be in pot 1 having had to qualify for instance, and I'll say the same when it happens to us as well), its rigged for the major TV companies, its rigged for the different countries represented.

Its their competition so I guess they will carry on however suits those with biggest influence, if we want that to be us, then we need to do well in it, whoever we get drawn against, and that involves playing a whole lot better than we did last year.

 

[Stoned Rose]

Personally what really annoys me is the rules that determine the seedings. Despite the fact that in the EPL for the past 3 years we have been clearly ahead of the two London clubs and have been more than a match for utd we keep being put in pot 3. I know it goes of CL performance but that is con - the other 3 English clubs are being measured by their performance against Anderlecht, Basle etc whilst we are measured against results against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. The fact they are in pot 1 means that play easier teams and so maintain their coefficient, its true that our CL performance could have been better and should have been but that does not detract from the unfairness of the closed shop system that the so called G14 European clubs have conjured up. We just have to up our game up European to gate-crash this CL party.

Rant over!

If we had performed well in the Europa Leauge 2 years ago or even managed to get into it last year, we would solidly be in Pot 2 and would probably not fall to the third spot again. We have had plenty of opportunity to move up the pots but have wasted them.

We've played a grand total of twelve CL games. CFR Cluj have posed in the competition more than us and yet people think we deserve to be in higher placed ranking position or a higher pot? That's just ridiculous. As you say we've had chances to gain further points than we have but weren't good enough to gain them. plus Arsenal and Chelsea have reached finals and played in the competition since the 90s. They fully deserve to be higher up in ranking and pots than we are. I don't understand why people have a problem with this sort of thing just because we've popped up and had a few higher placed finishes than them in the Prem in the last two/three years.

There are ranking systems in loads of sports.

What a bizarre individual.

 

[mancitymick]

This from a cracking Martin Samuel interview with Platini in May. Still no change

Samuel: Manchester City won the league last year, ended up in the hardest group. Arsenal haven’t won a thing since 2005 and are top seeds.
Platini: After the draw in Monte Carlo this year, I said to my team you have to propose me something better and to put a bigger implementation for the champion of the competition of the domestic league. I totally agree. I don’t know if it’s easy to do but we have to do something.
Farrelly: In terms of the changes that have been made, Martin, in the Champions League, the Champions path and the other path through qualification, the difference of teams has increased by 30 per cent. So we were having the same teams all the time, now we don’t have that. So one thing has been addressed, but obviously you both agree, the other thing now has to be discussed.
Platini: But you know we have the problem of some clubs like Milan who say, ‘We have the most titled team in Europe and we want to play in the Champions League every year.’
Samuel: So get 11 better players and win the league.
Platini: Oui. We have to help the champions more than the other, it’s not normal that we have a group where Manchester City is the fourth team of a group where there is only champions – it is not right. I totally agree with you. But to explain that in the administration is not so easy, eh? In UEFA? Now I am the boss I have to say yes, we have to do that.
Samuel: Yes, you’re the boss, it’s your call

 

[cleavers]

Well at least it suggests he see's a problem, what will happen if united get a group like ours this time ? It'll change !

 

[Pigeonho]

What time is the draw? Is it a morning affair?

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

I think the simple solution is that Pot A and B become Champions pots and C and D for the best placed teams, that way you have an equal split of champions/non-champions.

You'd then use the co-efficient to seed the teams within the 2 pots.

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

Why though? In your red section none of the pot 2 teams come from the same country as any of the pot 1 teams so your suggestion is just one of 24 permutations.
Your blue section has fewer permutations as Schalke can't meet Bayern and Atletico can't meet Barcelona but there are still 14 possibilities. In each case these will affect the groups into which teams from groups 3 & 4 can be placed.

on the principle that UEFA have to balance making groups exciting enough to draw viewers for the group stage matches and ensure the big teams get through, thus you look at a setup of either 2 top teams and 2 weak teams or 1 top team, 2 quite strong teams and 1 really weak team, and in some cases like United in the past few seasons 1 top team and 3 weak teams. So I tried to balance the groups (with future picks in mind) like that.

That's of course if you're cynical and believe UEFA have mapped out the draw, or at least certain aspects with non-important teams filling in the gaps as necessary i.e. It doesn't really matter where Pot 4 teams go apart from Napoli and Leverkusen so the others will be interchangeable.

So what you're saying is that even after the pairing for television, the ranking system that goes back five years and the rule about teams from the same country not playing each other; UEFA feel the need to further influence the draw?
Hot and cold balls perhaps or hot and cold load of balls?

I think it's certainly possible, after the way the Turkish TV managed to do the exact draw of a knockout stage twice last season, then I think they set their own pairings and did it again, and the fact the practice draw for one of the stages last season was identical to the real one as well, I don't see why they wouldn't do what they want.

I'd be astounded if my picks are anywhere near close(especially as Celtic will probably bugger it up and beat Shakhter now) but I'd be surprised if my basic premise isn't true in terms of the structures of the group.