Here's my prediction. I think we are comfortably now at number 17.
1. England qualify flakily for Brazil 2014 (and France, Russia and Qatar)
2. Everyone agrees that qualification is the most important thing (which it is).
3. Pundits and journalists begin to talk earnestly about a "new generation" of players
4. German squad and Lightning Seeds release "Fussball ist nach Hause angekommen" - eclipsing the pitiful England offering
5. Raggedy flags of St George appear on white vans and houses
6. Panini stickers on sale in Costcutters
7. Lazy articles in the press abound about samba/Copacabana/carnival/Mexico 70.
8. Large numbers of people who otherwise take no interest in football talk knowledgeably (or ignorantly - take your pick) about Sturridge, Shaw, Barkley and Lallana as the new "world class" generation
9. Equally large numbers of people attach huge significance to the fact that England are unfancied
10. BBC3 shows updated version of the "worst England XI". Carlton Palmer makes the cut
11. Home friendly arranged against a team (Peru in this case) as an exemplar of the "local" style of play
12. Ditto on neutral territory - Ecuador and Honduras. In all fairness, Miami is climatically closer to Manaus than Manchester
13. England perform in pedestrian style in all the above. Manager declares himself pleased with the positives
14. Key player picks up injury - Beckham, Rooney, Barry. Now Oxlade-C.
15. Radio 5 interrogates eminent Oxford professor of surgery to comment on the recovery period for (delete as appropriate) metatarsal/knee ligament/hair weave
16. Scare stories in the tabloids about hooligans and security more generally. Mass handing in of passports across the country
17. Anodyne interviews with players and manager suggest the spirit and preparation are the best ever
18. Media becomes increasingly hysterical - anything less than the semi-final will be a disaster
19. Geoff Hurst says he "has a feeling" this is England's year.
20. So does John Barnes - accompanied by endless clips of his goal at the Maracana. Endless clips also of Oxlade-C's and Rooney's more recent goals at the same ground.
21. England stumble through group stage, including several defensive howlers
22. England humiliated by first half decent team they meet in knockout stage - quite possibly a team on a fraction of their wages
23. Blame apportioned to (delete as appropriate) - being too tired at the end of a PL season/ball too light/ball too heavy/heat/humidity/altitude/internal travel/inferior accommodation/presence of WAGs/absence of WAGs/ boredom/opposition's "technical" superiority/refereeing incompetence/lack of goal-line technology/too many foreigners in PL/players' use of social networking/anti-capitalism riots/etc
24. Blame never apportioned to lack of skill, ability to pass and move into space or tendency to lose concentration
25. "Team England" attempt to fly into Stansted unnoticed at 3.00 am.
26. Team England ambushed by press in Stansted arrivals lounge at 3.10 am.
27 Team England lynched and disemboweled on the front and back pages
28. Much hand-wringing, followed by root and branch review of tactics/coaching/youth development/grass roots game
29. Manager replaced and Hodgson (and his successors in 2018 and 2022) takes job in Latvia/Lithuania/Leicester
30. Repeat every two years.
I cannot wait..