Another new Brexit thread

[Gabriel]

I'll post it for you again mate, maybe you made a mistake



Johnson said no prime minister could ever have a border in the Irish sea, looks like he's forgotten his own words sadly

Wonder what people in the ‘economic self-colony of the EU’ make of that?

 

[George Hannah]

Basically the deal needs 325 votes to pass.
You do the maths with the MPs but the DUP currently have 10 seats and if they all vote against it it's going to be tough for them to get it passed, though not impossible

320 is the magic number I believe. Based on the last vote, if the reported 18 rebels out of 21 vote for and Hoey and Mann are joined in the lobby by their 'guaranteed 10 other Labour colleagues' - whether the DUP abstain or vote against - BoJo will get his deal.

 

[Vic]

Yes.

You seem to have completely ignored the damage this paralysis is causing and the corresponding gain achieved by getting something done.

You have taken the Johnson shilling, haven't you?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

320 is the magic number I believe. If the reported 18 rebels out of 21 vote for and Hoey and Mann are joined i thr lobby by their 'guaranteed 10 other Labour colleagues' - whether the DUP abstain or vote against - BoJo will get his deal.

Well 325 is the magic number, there's 649 seats and he needs over half of that. Half of 649 is 324.5 so 325 is needed

 

[Vic]

Remain would probably win imo.

But that does not mean it is the right thing to do because it would solve nothing and we'd in all likelihood again imo have rioting in the streets, literally.

Democracy by giving in to people in balaclavas?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

And if there is no trade deal agreed at the end of the transition period we could still be cliff-edging to disaster. Brexit just isn't "getting done" by this deal. It's on the backburner. But by then the EU will have amended Article 50 to allow a former member to crawl back in during any agreed transition period.

Surely that is not a straw you are clutching at there Vic? Anything that would indicate a possible economic disaster?

 

[Len Rum]

Hmmm

Predicted it for months actually

I refer you to my post #6987 - August - within which I said:

".... As part of that agreement, respect the EU's position re the protection of the SM and agree that the only practical thing to do is to have a border down the Irish Sea....."

Or how about #5357 - also August:

Or my post #7590 which again states the same prediction - Irish Sea border

Or #10692

etc. etc.

It is what comes from undertaking objective assessment and being consistent

Do you want to reply accepting that I was indeed correct in my predictions and yourself wrong with the assumption you make in this post?

As mentioned to BJ - being wrong is not a hanging offence​

In which case you as an international negotiator will appreciate that the British Government 'blinked' first and dropped their red line of no sea border.
Then the EU moved to drop their red line of reopening the WA.
The difference being that we will now have an internal EU border in the middle of UK territory with long term implications for the Union.
The EU just reopened a piece of paper to move towards something they had initially proposed in 2017.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

What if there is a draw tomorrow? does the speaker not have the casting vote in that instance ? Now that would be interesting !

 

[George Hannah]

Well 325 is the magic number, there's 649 seats and he needs over half of that. Half of 649 is 324.5 so 325 is needed

No, SF don't sit and the speaker doesn't vote. There are others in the independent group who also do not vote for various unsavoury reasons.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Whilst getting an agreement is all well and good, I applaud the **** for getting one, people still do not understand how parliament should work,

MPs are not delegates, they are representatives and part of their contract with the electorate is once they are elected they are given the right to free "will" that means they can use their own judgement on any matter forthcoming.

If the "will" of the people is taken as more important as the "will" of the Parliamentarian then it undermines the basic principles of our democracy. Parliamentarians are not chancers they are using their conscience as expressed at the GE in which they were elected. Asking a person to vote against their conscience undermines their legitimacy. They become tools of the electorate rather than the conscience of the electorate.

I really am appalled at how this whole Brexit process has undermined our system of Government and the recklessness shown by people who should respect our institutions has been nothing short of disgraceful. The whole point of taking back control is rendered useless if politicians in the Legislature are expected to meekly accept the wishes of the Executive. That is not democracy it is despotism.

Ultimately it comes down to where sovereignty lies and sovereignty only rests with the people for one day on the day of General Election, the referendum has clouded that principle of sovereignty and is a reason why I am so anti referendum. We simply do not have the constitutional provision for direct democracy and I see that a 2nd referendum is now being mooted which is a huge mistake as it will further muddy the waters of where sovereignty actually lies.

I hope it isn't the case, but I think this is far from over but I don't see a way other than Parliamentary "bribery" that the deal can be passed and if that is the case then our Sovereignty is further undermined by the control of the executive.

That's a great post mate. It perfectly sums up my feeling regards referendums. Our representative system of democracy has served us well for hundreds of years and referendums are fundamentally incompatible with it as things stand. If anyone is unconvinced by this argument, then they only need to look at what's happening around them!

 

[M18CTID]

Or just changed his mind perhaps? As indeed many, many people have done?

Changed his mind.....lied like fuck.....or maybe he did that thing that many would deem sensible and compromised when there were no other viable options to break the impasse?

The main issue anyone should have on this is that it's not gone down well with the unionists and ideally we needed something that all sides in NI are in agreement with. Calling Johnson out as a liar because he's, admittedly, backtracked on what he said last year is rather amusing when it comes from some posters who are prepared to blow smoke up the arse of the leader of the Labour Party despite the fact that said leader has performed the biggest U-turn of the fucking lot when it comes to his stance on the EU.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

No, SF don't sit and the speaker doesn't vote. There are others in the independent group who also do not vote for various unsavoury reasons.

I did note the absence of the speaker tbf when I said 649 but you make a good point about sinn Fein though

 

[Coatigan]

There-in lies the nub of the entire tragedy, the "country" is utterly riven. Right-wing ideology versus left-wing ideology in a death-dance, complicated by the city/village dichotomy, the young/old split and the fact the two parties of traditional politics are themselves in effect divided. Never been a worse time to take a gamble for such high stakes, brought about by stampeding parliament into a frantic chaotic shambles.
In fact, it mirrors how the ref. came about, a binary vote to solve multi-faceted problems that the electorate did not even know existed. FFS

Sadly, true.

I complain about what the indyref brought out in Scotland and how emotional and unpleasant it got, but actually, at least the divisions here are far less complex and extreme than down south and UK overall.
There is no real sign of a genuine will to 'heal' society either, as people push their narrative harder and harder to 'defeat' the other, rather than making any effort to understand.

As in all honesty is evident in the attitudes on this thread as well.

 

[Chippy_boy]

That's a bit of a cop out tbh Chip.

He said no prime minister could "ever" vote for such a deal because of what it stood for. He lies whenever it suits him and his party and is happy to abandon the small amount of principles he has when required

It isn't a cop out. People can and do change their minds. The fact he said "ever" doesn't mean he cannot have decided on reflection that those previous views of his were mistaken.

People seem to be desperate to portray Johnson in the worst possible light no matter what he says and does. I wonder why. Not.

 

[George Hannah]

I did note the absence of the speaker tbf when I said 649 but you make a good point about sinn Fein though

It's gonna be tight - wonder what the bookies odds are looking like?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Democracy by giving in to people in balaclavas?

A bit ironic that post Vic. Democracy by ignoring a referendum result you promised to uphold?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

It's gonna be tight - wonder what the bookies odds are looking like?

Sod knows mate I've given up trying to predict

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

It isn't a cop out. People can and do change their minds. The fact he said "ever" doesn't mean he cannot have decided on reflection that those previous views of his were mistaken.

People seem to be desperate to portray Johnson in the worst possible light no matter what he says and does. I wonder why. Not.

It kind of is. He said no prime minister could ever vote for it, why did he view it as such a bad thing and what's changed?

Can anyone explain what has changed that means this deal isn't as terrible as May and Jonhson told everyone it wouldn't be?

 

[M18CTID]

It's gonna be tight - wonder what the bookies odds are looking like?

I checked last night and it was neck and neck. Odds of 5/6 for both

 

[Chippy_boy]

Calling Johnson out as a liar because he's, admittedly, backtracked on what he said last year is rather amusing when it comes from some posters who are prepared to blow smoke up the arse of the leader of the Labour Party despite the fact that said leader has performed the biggest U-turn of the fucking lot when it comes to his stance on literally everything if it might help him win a GE.

Fixed that for you.